On inferring standard deviations from path dependent options

Path dependent option prices are employed to derive implied standard deviations of the underlying security price process without recourse to numerical procedures. We empirically illustrate our methodology by inferring the volatility of gold prices.     

A New British Branch for EBEN

Last September a British chapter of the European Business Ethics Network was launched at an inaugural Conference, "Implementing Ethical Business", in Cheltenham and Gloucester College of Higher Education. The author of this conference report is the principal consultant of Corporate Social Responsibility Consultants, 28A Tooting Bec Rd., London SW17 8BD.     

Realism: Austrian vs. Neoclassical Economics,Reply to Caplan

The Quarterly Journal of Austrian Economics -     

Disentangling Alliance Management Processes: Decision Making, Politicality, and Alliance Performance

abstract    Using a sample of 106 organizations engaged in strategic alliances, we develop and test a framework of alliance-related organizational decision-making processes and their impact on alliance performance. With regard to direct effects, our results show a negative impact of decision-making recursiveness and no significant relationship for openness and procedural rationality. Acknowledging the importance of the organization's micropolitical context in which these decision processes are embedded, we also test the moderating influence of politicality. Our findings provide support for our hypotheses that in a context of low politicality, the decision-making characteristics of openness and procedural rationality have a positive influence, whereas recursiveness negatively affects alliance performance. In a context of high politicality, however, openness and procedural rationality exert a negative influence, and the negative impact of recursiveness is aggravated. We suggest that alliance-related decision making cannot be adequately understood without explicitly considering the micropolitical context in organizations.     

The behavior of intra-daily exchange rates

The behavior of exchange rates is examined as they evolve continuously over time. The data consist of Swiss franc/U.S. dollar rates for nine days during the years 1978–1980 as quoted by a major Swiss dealer operating on the interbank market. Since this market is highly organized, the observations are market prices at the same time. The distributions of relative changes in exchange rates measured over one minute are highly leptokurtic. The normal distribution is rather rapidly approached when the measurement interval is lengthened from one up to ten minutes. Time series analysis reveals that the natural logarithms of exchange rates are adequately described by a random walk, the same stochastic process as has been found for daily, weekly, monthly and quarterly observations. For short time intervals, significant autocorrelations sometimes occur at the first few lags, which are, however, not stable enough over time to form a basis for reliable forecasts.