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51.
Rafael Tiecher Cusinato André Minella Sabino da Silva Pôrto Júnior 《Empirical Economics》2013,44(3):1113-1127
Recent literature for developed economies has shown that output gap estimates go through important revisions over time, impairing their reliability in real time. We organize a real-time data set for Brazil’s GDP and assess the revisions of the output gap estimated by four different methods. Similar to the findings of studies for developed economies, the output gap revisions in Brazil are substantial in all methods, with frequent changes in the output gap sign. In general, both the GDP data revision and the effect of adding new observations to the sample are relevant sources of output gap revisions. However, differently from those studies, we cannot assert that the latter source is preponderant. 相似文献
52.
André Ebner 《Emerging Markets Review》2009,10(2):97-121
This paper studies the spread between 10 year Euro denominated Central and Eastern European (CEE) government bonds and their German counterpart. With newly available time series, regressions are run for each country separately in order to deliver a first insight into the underlying determinants. While higher ECB reference rate and market volatility increase bond spreads and turn out to be the main driving factors, there is no common pattern of macroeconomic fundamentals, pointing to strong heterogeneity within the CEE region. Overall, market variables are more significant than fundamentals during 1999 to 2007. 相似文献
53.
Tomás Serebrisky Sebastián López Azumendi Luis Alberto Andrés 《Journal of Air Transport Management》2011,17(4):207-210
This paper offers a cross-country assessment of the governance of airport regulators in Latin America. The analysis links the institutional design of airport regulators, whether in the form of independent regulatory agencies or government departments, to their overall governance. It examines four dimensions of regulatory governance: autonomy, transparency, accountability, and bureaucratic quality. Independent regulatory agencies in the Latin American airport sector seem to provide a better framework for transparency and bureaucratic quality than government departments. It is not conclusively found, however, that independent regulatory agencies contribute to a more autonomous decision-making or to an enhanced accountability of regulators to other branches of government and airport users. Overall, governance indicators of airport regulators in Latin America are well below the threshold that defines good governance. 相似文献
54.
This paper presents the results of an empirical study into the efficiency of the currency options market. The methodology derives from a simple model often applied to the spot and forward markets for foreign exchange. It relates the historic volatility of the underlying asset to the implied volatility of an option on the underlying at a specified prior time and then proceeds to test obvious hypotheses about the values of the coefficients. The study uses panel regression to address the problem of overlapping data which leads to dependence between observations. It also uses volatility data directly quoted on the market in order to avoid the biases which may occur when ‘backing out’ volatility from specific option pricing models. In general, the evidence rejects the hypothesis that the currency option market is efficient. This suggests that implied volatility is not the best predictor of future exchange rate volatility and should not be used without modification: the models presented in this paper could be a way of producing revised forecasts. 相似文献
55.
56.
RÉSUMÉ 1 : Le faible niveau moyen d’efficience des institutions bancaires habituellement trouvé dans les études empiriques a été qualifié de « boîte noire » par Berger et Mester (1997) . Cette étude cherche à identifier si les caractéristiques de l’environnement de même que celles qui sont propres à une coopérative d’épargne et de crédit pourraient expliquer une partie des écarts de performance apparaissant dans les scores d’efficience. Le modèle de coût que nous avons estimé est basé sur la valeur ajoutée par l’intermédiation financière. Par ailleurs, pour éviter la perte d’informations découlant de la borne à l’unité des scores d’efficience découlant du DEA, nous avons comparé les résultats d’une analyse avec le score d’efficience et de superefficience. Nos résultats montrent qu’au moins 34% des écarts de scores peuvent être expliqués par un ensemble limité de variables: taille de la coopérative, taux de capitalisation, épargne par membre, nombre de membres et type de marché. 相似文献
57.
Regression-based testing techniques have long been used to quantify whether the efficient frontier of a set of assets spans the frontier of a larger collection of investments. This paper derives regression-based spanning tests for the case in which the investment possibilities set contains, or is constituted by, futures contracts for which marked-to-market margins are explicitly taken into account. Two empirical applications illustrate our results. 相似文献
58.
André Roux 《Development Southern Africa》1997,14(4):531-545
This article explores the channels through which defence can either promote or compromise economic development. It reviews the roles of the military as an agent for modernisation in developing societies and as an absorber of scarce resources. The article then examines how the military affected development in South Africa in the past and how it could do so in the future, given the decline in defence expenditure. 相似文献
59.
This paper provides new evidence on the objectives pursued by worker-managed firms (WMFs). The basic neoclassical model assumes that WMFs maximizes net income per member instead of total profits (Ward, 1958). Even though it has been largely criticized, the Ward model has dominated the self-management literature. Alternative models suggest that WMFs are not only concerned about income per worker but also about the level of employment. However, the empirical content of these competing theoretical models has been rarely analyzed. This paper contributes to fill this gap by estimating the parameters of a generic welfare function, following the methodology proposed by Craig and Pencavel (1993). These parameters determine the relative importance that a WMF places on income per worker vis-a-vis the level of employment. Estimates are based on a long micro-panel of Uruguayan firms covering the entire population of Uruguayan worker-managed firm and conventional firms in 31 3-digit sectors over the period April 1996-December 2005. Following a strictly neoclassical framework, but simply allowing a more general specification of the WMF goals, we show that the assumption of the basic neoclassical model of the WMF is misleading. Our results support the view that WMFs are concerned with both employment and income per worker. 相似文献
60.