Public Investment,the Stability Pact and the ‘Golden Rule’

The fiscal rules set in the Treaty of Maastricht and in the Stability and Growth Pact have sometimes been criticised as an excessively binding constraint for appropriate counter‐cyclical action. The risk that the rules may permanently reduce the public sector's contribution to capital accumulation has also been pointed out. In this framework, the adoption of a ‘golden rule’ has been suggested. Starting from the recent debate, this paper tackles two questions: (a) the implications of the Pact for public investment and (b) the pros and cons of introducing a golden rule in EMU's fiscal framework, given the objectives of low public debts and adequate margins for a stabilising budgetary policy. The analysis suggests that the rules set in the Treaty and in the Pact may negatively influence public investment spending. However, the golden rule, although intuitively appealing, does not seem to be an appropriate solution to the problem.     

Modeling the Reforms of the Common Agricultural Policy for Arable Crops under Uncertainty

The size of the insurance and wealth effects of a change in the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) for arable crops is estimated. The impact of price uncertainty is accounted for in the specific decision-making structure of the European Union (EU) arable crop producers under nonlinear mean-variance risk preferences. A system of output supply, input demand, and land allocation equations is estimated on a sample of Italian specialized arable crop farms. The simulation of the impact of the recent reforms confirms that farmers' output responses are consistently affected by the size of the insurance and wealth effects.     

The impact of old technologies on innovation: the case of the US biotechnology industry

This paper investigates the implications of a technology sourcing strategy maintaining a focus on the rediscovery of old technologies. Specifically, we study the different impact exerted by old technological solutions, distinguished on the basis of their organisational and industrial origins, on the innovation value. We develop a set of hypotheses about the impact exerted by four distinct types of old technological solutions (firm core technological heritage, firm lateral technological heritage, competitors’ technological heritage and others’ technological heritage) and test them on a sample of 1189 biotechnology patents registered at the US Patent and Trademark Office from 1979 to 2002. Results strongly support our hypotheses, revealing that: (1) using both firm core technological heritage and others’ technological heritage has an inverted U-shaped effect on innovation value; (2) employing firm lateral technological heritage is positively related to innovation value; (3) a negative relationship occurs between competitors’ core technological heritage and the value of subsequent innovations.     

Redistribution in a Neo‐Kaleckian Two‐country Model

We investigate the interaction between demand‐driven growth and income distribution in open economies, by combining expenditure‐switching and demand spillover effects in a neo‐Kaleckian two country model. First, we specify elasticities of wage share and real exchange rate to the money wage relative to labor productivity, in order to precisely describe the distributive pass‐through from money wages to the labor share and the real exchange rate. Second, we analyze the demand effects of an increase in the money wage for given labor productivity (a redistribution towards labor) in both Home and Foreign country, as well as globally. We derive closed form results for two identical countries. These results indicate that redistribution towards labor at Home: (i) always increases growth globally if Home is wage‐led, but can lead to lower growth at Home relative to Foreign; and (ii) will always imply lower growth at Home relative to Foreign if Home is profit‐led, but can still be growth‐enhancing at Home. Thus, to the extent that countries are concerned with their relative economic performance, a fallacy of composition can emerge. Numerical simulations suggest that these fallacies could indeed occur. As a consequence, ‘returns to coordination’ over international labor policies might be substantial.     

The effect of household appliances on female labor force participation: Evidence from microdata

We estimate the effect of household appliance ownership on the labor force participation rate of married women using micro-level data from the 1960 and 1970 U.S. Censuses. In order to identify the causal effect of home appliance ownership on married women's labor force participation rates, our empirical strategy exploits both time-series and cross-sectional variation in these two variables. To control for endogeneity, we instrument a married woman's ownership of an appliance by the average ownership rate for that appliance among single women living in the same U.S. state. Single women's labor force participation rates did not increase between 1960 and 1970. We find evidence in support of the hypothesis that the diffusion of household appliances contributed to the increase in married women's labor force participation rates during the 1960's.     

Financialization of food. Modelling the time-varying relation between agricultural prices and stock market dynamics

This article studies the correlation of agricultural prices with stock market dynamics. We discuss the possible role of financial and macroeconomic factors in driving this time-varying relation, with the aim of understanding what caused positive correlation between agricultural commodities and stocks in recent years. While previous works on commodity-equity correlation have focused on broad commodity indices, we study 16 agricultural prices, in order to assess patterns that are specific to agricultural commodities but also differences across markets. We show that an explanation based on a combination of financialization and financial crisis is consistent with the empirical evidence in most markets, while global demand factors don’t appear to play a significant role. The correlation between agricultural prices and stock market returns tends to increase during periods of financial turmoil. The impact of financial turmoil on the correlation gets stronger as the share of financial investors in agricultural derivatives markets rises. Our findings suggest that the influence of financial shocks on agricultural prices should decrease as global financial tensions settle down but also that, as long as agricultural markets are ‘financialized’, it might rise again when it is less needed, i.e. in the presence of new financial turmoil.     

The stability of money demand in the long-run: Italy 1861–2011

Money demand stability is a crucial issue for monetary policy efficacy, and it is particularly endangered when substantial changes occur in the monetary system. By implementing the ARDL technique, this study intends to estimate the impact of money demand determinants in Italy over a long period (1861–2011) and to investigate the stability of the estimated relations. We show that instability cannot be excluded when a standard money demand function is estimated, irrespectively of the use of M1 or M2. Then, we argue that the reason for possible instability resides in the omission of relevant variables, as we show that a fully stable demand for narrow money (M1) can be obtained from an augmented money demand function involving real exchange rate and its volatility as additional explanatory variables. These results also allow us to argue that narrower monetary aggregates should be employed in order to obtain a stable estimated relation.     

Understanding gross worker flows across U.S. states

The main cross-sectional and time-series properties of state-level gross and net worker flows, wages, and rents are characterized using micro-data from the U.S. Census. A dynamic general equilibrium model of worker migration is introduced to explain the stylized facts. In the model, a location may experience simultaneous inflows and outflows of workers. Recent migrants choose to migrate more often than incumbent workers. Thus, locations that attract high numbers of migrants also tend to experience high outflow rates. This pattern is a robust feature of the data and cannot be explained by models of net flows only.     

The courage to choose! Primogeniture and leadership succession in family firms

Research Summary : Building on a unique data set with information on the nuclear structure of entrepreneurial families, we integrate leadership succession into a socioemotional wealth (SEW) logic to test the antecedents and consequences of primogeniture vis‐à‐vis second‐ or subsequent‐born selection in family firm succession. Our findings suggest that appointing a family firstborn sibling is more likely when there is a high degree of SEW endowment and the family firm has pre‐succession performance below aspiration levels. Next, we find that appointing a second‐ or subsequent‐born sibling has a positive and significant effect on post‐succession firm profitability, particularly when the firm is in its second generation or later. Managerial Summary : What drives succession choices in family firms? What are the performance implications of each succession choice? These are questions of vital relevance for every business owner. Focusing on the pool of potential family heirs at the time of succession, our study adds to the debate on the drivers of succession choices by suggesting that having a family intensive governance structure fosters primogeniture as the main succession logic, even when the family firm is experiencing lower profitability. Our study informs business owners on the implications of different succession policies, suggesting that family firms that have the courage to disregard primogeniture and choose more wisely the family successor are also the ones experiencing higher post‐succession performance.