A perspective on subjective probability for prediction and decision

The problem of assigning a meaningful subjective probability measure on a set of predictive models (inductive hypothesis) is considered. An outperformance construct is suggested as a means of reducing this to the more tractable task of assessing the distribution on a set of realizable events. Further issues on the precise interpretation of subjective probability estimation from the perspective of the decision-oriented forecaster are then considered.     

A Picture of Male and Female Unemployment among Britain's Ethnic Minorities

Using a sample of around one million observations, formed by combining two micro datasets from the 1991 Census of Population, the paper explores male and female unemployment differences across Britain's ethnic minorities. The large sample size allows a detailed multivariate analysis of females for the first time. Unemployment differences are not simply the result of characteristic differences or discrimination by the white majority. The empirical work shows that there are equally wide discrepancies in female unemployment rates, compared with males, between the white majority and the non-white ethnic minorities. Of particular interest is the comparison between UK born and foreign born ethnic minorities. Unemployment rates among the former tend to be considerably higher, but this is accounted for by characteristic differences. Thus there is no evidence that the UK born are doing worse, as the raw data suggest, but they do not seem to be becoming better assimilated either.     

Capital investment and determinants of financial constraints in Estonia

Unlike previous empirical work concerning investment behavior and the determinants of liquidity constraints, we use a switching regression framework when sample separation is unknown and endogenous and firms are assumed to operate either in the financially constrained or in the financially unconstrained regime. By using new panel data for Estonian companies during 1993–2002 we find that: (i) investment behavior is characterized by two distinct regimes; (ii) the likelihood of being financially constrained is higher in firms that are recently privatized, small and where ownership is concentrated in the hands of insiders and the state; (iii) the actual probabilities of operating in the financially constrained regime are quite high and essentially stable during the whole period under consideration; (iv) ownership structure affects investment beyond its indirect effects through financial constraints.     

DEFINING AND MEASURING THE PUBLIC SECTOR: SOME INTERNATIONAL COMPARISONS

The public sector is defined here to include government plus public enterprises. Historically, economists and statisticians have been more concerned with its separate components than with the public sector as a whole, but it is suggested that the public sector may be an appropriate concept for studying several current problems of economic policy. While there is general agreement as to what constitutes government, countries have differing views about what makes an enterprise public. Differences in country definitions of public enterprises are identified as one of the main problems in making international comparisons for the public sector. Statistics are presented for up to 16 OECD countries on the share of the public sector in total final demand, value added, employment, and net lending. It is argued that there is rarely a unique answer to the question “How big is the public sector?” For most countries judicious selection of data and careful definition will lead to different conclusions about the size and growth of the public sector. Because of the lack of data, it is not possible to analyse public sectors in developing countries in the same detail as OECD countries. The evidence available suggests that while public sectors are about the same size in both OECD and developing countries, public enterprises play a more important role in the latter.     

SUBSISTENCE ACTIVITIES IN THE NATIONAL ACCOUNTS OF DEVELOPING COUNTRIES WITH SPECIAL REFERENCE TO LATIN AMERICA*

This paper presents some preliminary findings from a research study by the OECD Development Centre into the treatment of subsistence activities in national accounts. It summarizes the results of a questionnaire on country practices, and reports on the findings with respect to shares of non-monetary production in GDP, methods of estimation, and usefulness of the resulting estimates. Among the 48 developing countries covered, the share of non-monetary value added in total GDP ranges from over 40 percent for the poorer countries of Africa to 5 percent or less for the more advanced countries of Latin America and Southern Europe. In countries where rural living standards are much below those in urban areas, non-monetary activities may be very important to the well-being of a large number of people, even though they form only a small part of GDP, and it is still important to make realistic estimates for subsistence output. Agriculture is obviously the main item in non-monetary production, accounting often for over 80 percent of the total. Most countries use some kind of “producers' prices” for valuing agricultural output. Few countries now publish separate figures for non—monetary activities. For many countries, doing so would involve a considerable amount of extra work, but for a number of planning purposes it does seem important to distinguish subsistence activities separately.