Cointegration and causal relations in mortgage and capital markets

In years past, credit rationing resulted in the primary mortgage market being segmented from national capital markets. Some research suggests that the deregulation of depository institutions in the early 1980s along with the exponential growth in the secondary mortgage market, has resulted in a primary mortgage market more fully integrated with national capital markets. This study employs Granger Causality to test primary and secondary mortgage market segmentation. Our findings support the conclusion that causality is unidirectional from the treasury market to the primary and secondary mortgage market. The results also indicate that mortgage market speed of adjustment increased significantly by the end of the decade.     

Socio-economic and demographic determinants of consumer problem perception

Studies on consumer satisfaction, dissatisfaction, and complaining behaviour provide no consistent picture of the socio-economic and demographic characteristics of the consumers involved. This study indicates that consumers with different socio-economic characteristics perceive and experience different numbers and types of consumer problems.Younger people experience more problems with commercial information. Persons of lower income and full nest families report more problems with usage costs and product quality. Problems with after-sales service are more often experienced by male and upper class consumers. Differences in problem perception may affect subsequent satisfaction, dissatisfaction, and complaining behaviour.

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Sozioökonomische und demographische Einflüsse auf die Wahrnehmung von Verbraucherproblemen

Zusammenfassung Untersuchungen zur Zufriedenheit, zur Unzufriedenheit und zum Beschwerdeverhalten von Konsumenten ergeben kein konsistentes Bild der sozioökonomischen und demographischen Eigenschaften der untersuchten Konsumenten. Die vorliegende Studie deutet darauf hin, daß Konsumenten mit unterschiedlichen sozioökonomischen Eigenschaften sich hinsichtlich der Anzahl und der Art der wahrgenommenen Verbraucherprobleme unterscheiden.Jüngere Verbraucher empfinden mehr Probleme mit kommerzieller Information. Verbraucher mit niedrigerem Einkommen und Familien mit Kindern nehmen mehr Probleme mit den Gebrauchskosten und mit der Produktqualität wahr. Probleme mit dem Kundendienst treten dagegen häufiger bei männlichen Konsumenten und solchen aus höheren Schichten auf. Unterschiede in der Problemwahrnehmung wirken sich auf die Zufriedenheit und das Beschwerdeverhalten von Konsumenten aus.

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Dick A. Francken is a Research Fellow at SWOKA, Institute for Scientific Research on Consumer Affairs, Kon. Emmakade 192–195, NL-2518 JP The Hague, The Netherlands. W. Fred van Raaij is Professor of Economic Psychology at Erasmus University, Department of Economics, P.O. Box 1738, NL-3000 DR Rotterdam, The Netherlands.     

Approximation of forward curve models in commodity markets with arbitrage-free finite-dimensional models

In this paper, we show how to approximate Heath–Jarrow–Morton dynamics for the forward prices in commodity markets with arbitrage-free models which have a finite-dimensional state space. Moreover, we recover a closed-form representation of the forward price dynamics in the approximation models and derive the rate of convergence to the true dynamics uniformly over an interval of time to maturity under certain additional smoothness conditions. In the Markovian case, we can strengthen the convergence to be uniform over time as well. Our results are based on the construction of a convenient Riesz basis on the state space of the term structure dynamics.     

The structure of consumer confidence and real value added growth in retailing in the Netherlands

Consumer confidence is a determinant of the willingness to buy and thus of sales in retailing. The main purpose of this study is to investigate whether the structure of consumer confidence in the period 1987-2000 differs from the 1972-87 period. The main finding is that, in the 1972-87 period saving had a precaution motive and in the 1987-2000 period saving had a transaction motive. In the 1972-87 period, the utility and ability of saving were determined by the development of household wealth; and in the 1987-2000 period, the utility and ability of saving are determined by the level of household wealth. The perceived inflation is related more strongly to the perceived development of the general economic situation in the 1972-87 than in the 1987-2000 period. Empirical evidence is found that consumer confidence also influences real sales of retailers.     

The Gall in Mother's Milk

How the 1981 WHO code on infant formula marketing came about: the roles played by Nestlé, the other manufacturers, and activist groups.     

An Instructional Case Comparing the Accounting Policies and Financial Results of Online Retailers

In the role of financial analyst for a venture capital firm, you are assigned the responsibility of evaluating two online retailers who have applied for financing to build a distribution center in western Canada. Based on your developing knowledge of Canadian accounting standards for private enterprises (ASPE), you evaluate the financial reporting policies and financial results of the two companies to identify the company that is best suited for your firm's support. Through this case, you will refine your understanding of ASPE and you will exercise your reasoning and analytical skills.     

Personalien

Personalien

Personalien     

An application of rule-based forecasting to a situation lacking domain knowledge

Rule-based forecasting (RBF) uses rules to combine forecasts from simple extrapolation methods. Weights for combining the rules use statistical and domain-based features of time series. RBF was originally developed, tested, and validated only on annual data. For the M3-Competition, three major modifications were made to RBF. First, due to the absence of much in the way of domain knowledge, we prepared the forecasts under the assumption that no domain knowledge was available. This removes what we believe is one of RBF’s primary advantages. We had to re-calibrate some of the rules relating to causal forces to allow for this lack of domain knowledge. Second, automatic identification procedures were used for six time-series features that had previously been identified using judgment. This was done to reduce cost and improve reliability. Third, we simplified the rule-base by removing one method from the four that were used in the original implementation. Although this resulted in some loss in accuracy, it reduced the number of rules in the rule-base from 99 to 64. This version of RBF still benefits from the use of prior findings on extrapolation, so we expected that it would be substantially more accurate than the random walk and somewhat more accurate than equal weights combining. Because most of the previous work on RBF was done using annual data, we especially expected it to perform well with annual data.     

Understanding a Two‐Sided Coin: Antecedents and Consequences of a Decomposed Product Advantage*

This paper investigates the antecedents and consequences of two product advantage components: product meaningfulness and product superiority. Product meaningfulness concerns the benefits that users receive from buying and using a new product, whereas product superiority concerns the extent to which a new product outperforms competing products. The present paper argues that scholars and managers should make a deliberate distinction between the two components because they are theoretically distinct and also have different antecedents and consequences. Data were collected through an online survey on 141 new products from high‐tech companies located in The Netherlands. The results reveal that new products need to be meaningful as well as superior to competing products to be successful. This finding is consistent with the prevailing aggregate view on product advantage in the literature. However, the results also show that the effects of the two components on new product performance are moderated by market turbulence. Although each component is important in that it forms a necessary precondition for the other to affect new product performance under circumstances of moderate market turbulence, meaningfulness is most important for new product performance in turbulent markets where preferences have not yet taken shape. In contrast, when markets become more stable, the uniqueness of meaningful attributes decreases, and new products that provide advantage by fulfilling their functions in a way that is superior to competing products are more likely to perform well. In addition, the study shows that the firm's customer and competitor knowledge processes independently lead to product meaningfulness and superiority, respectively. The findings also reveal that under conditions of high technological turbulence the customer and competitor knowledge processes complement each other in creating product meaningfulness and superiority. This implies that the level of technological turbulence puts requirements on the breadth of firms' market knowledge processes to create a new product with sufficient advantage to become successful. The paper concludes that neglecting the distinction between product meaningfulness and superiority when assessing a new product's advantage may lead to an incomplete insight on how firms can improve the performance of their new products.