Trust relations in management of change

Trust is essential for the success of change, but transformational change challenges trust. This paper analyses how trust dynamics develop over time in two Danish manufacturing firms affected by major change programmes. The results show that change creates uncertainty among employees, thereby provoking intense scrutiny of management intentions and a tendency to make interpretations that exaggerate management intentions—with the end result of reduced trust. Management then react similarly with negative interpretations of employee reactions, creating a vicious cycle of reduced trust. The paper proposes a model for how change and trust interact and suggests a managerial strategy for trust repair: Strong management actions that symbolise integrity, competence and benevolence may counteract reduced trust, but if low trust turns into distrust, the result may be a deadlock that both parties find difficult to break.     

What Does CEOs’ Pay-for-Performance Reveal About Shareholders’ Attitude Toward Earnings Overstatements?

If overstatements were a symptom of the agency conflict, pay-for-performance sensitivities should have increased in response to the additional penalties for misreporting imposed by SOX. Our finding of their decrease is inconsistent with the view that overstatements were an unintended consequence of incentive pay prior to 2002. To corroborate our interpretation, we show that (i) CEO pay-for-performance sensitivities are higher among firms whose shareholders stand to benefit from overstatements; (ii) this cross-sectional relationship weakens significantly after SOX; and (iii) the within-firm decrease in pay-for-performance sensitivity is most pronounced among firms with high pre-SOX shareholder benefits from overstatements.     

On the size of fiscal multipliers: A counterfactual analysis

We point out that fiscal multipliers derived from SVAR-models include the predicted future path of policy instruments. After the initial shock, net taxes and government expenditures react to each other and are autocorrelated. In a counterfactual simulation, we report fiscal multipliers that abstract from these dynamic responses.     

Forecasting interest rates with shifting endpoints

We consider forecasting the term structure of interest rates with the assumption that factors driving the yield curve are stationary around a slowly time‐varying mean or ‘shifting endpoint’. The shifting endpoints are captured using either (i) time series methods (exponential smoothing) or (ii) long‐range survey forecasts of either interest rates or inflation and output growth, or (iii) exponentially smoothed realizations of these macro variables. Allowing for shifting endpoints in yield curve factors provides substantial and significant gains in out‐of‐sample predictive accuracy, relative to stationary and random walk benchmarks. Forecast improvements are largest for long‐maturity interest rates and for long‐horizon forecasts. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The two-fund separation theorem revisited

This paper resolves two issues regarding the traditional capital asset pricing model with one risk-free asset which seem to have been overlooked in the literature. First, it provides an elementary and complete proof of the two-fund separation theorem which accounts for the fact that asset demand may become undefined if the limiting slopes of the investor’s indifference curves are finite. Second, it shows that an additional limiting condition on investors’ risk aversions is generally necessary to guarantee existence of an equilibrium. Moreover, a generalized existence result is formulated which includes investors who in equilibrium may not invest in risky assets and a simple condition ensuring positive equilibrium asset prices is given.     

New Service Development: An Analysis of 27 Years of Research *

This study examines the state of the art in new service development (NSD) research published in the period between 1982, when the first NSD article appeared in an academic journal, and 2008. First, a multisource search was conducted, which resulted in the identification of 145 NSD‐related articles. Then, a content analysis was performed of these articles using multiple classifier variables with regard to general publication characteristics, focus of the research, and the research methodology that was employed. By examining the results, a number of developments in and patterns of scholarly research in NSD are revealed. More specifically, it appears that the greatest attention in the early writings was on a narrow set of NSD topics like critical success factors and the NSD process, which were predominantly investigated through large‐scale surveys with single respondents in the U.S., Canadian, and U.K. financial services industry. The analytical techniques that were used at that time were rather simple. In contrast, in recent NSD works there is an expansion of research topics (such as customer involvement and the organization of NSD) that are increasingly investigated in high‐tech service industries in Europe through qualitative research designs. Also, multiple respondent studies have started to appear in NSD investigations, while analytical techniques have also become more advanced. This pattern clearly uncovers signs of increasing maturation for the NSD discipline. In addition, some underresearched areas are identified, leading to suggestions for future research into this growing and important field.