Differencing of random walks and near random walks

The traditional rationale for differencing time series data is to attain stationarity. For a nearly non-stationary first-order autoregressive process—AR (1) with positive slope parameter near unity—we were led to a complementary rationale. If one suspects near non-stationarity of the AR (1) process, if the sample size is ‘small’ or ‘moderate’, and if good one-step-ahead prediction performance is the goal, then it is wise to difference the data and treat the differences as observations on a stationary AR (1) process. Estimation by Ordinary Least Squares then appears to be at least as satisfactory as nonlinear least squares. Use of differencing for an already stationary process can be motivated by Bayesian concepts: differencing can be viewed as an easy way to incorporate non-diffuse prior judgement—that the process is nearly non-stationary—into one's analysis. Random walks and near random walks are often encountered in economics. Unless one's sample size is large, the same statistical analyses apply to either.     

Gains in efficiency from joint estimation of systems of autoregressive-moving average processes

The paper examines gains in efficiency from joint estimation of systems of ARMA processes where cross-correlation is due to contemporaneous correlation among disturbances. The asymptotic variance of joint estimates is derived and it involves only variances and covariances among purely AR processes corresponding to the AR and MA parts of the constituent processes. Small sample gains are evaluated by Monte Carlo methods. Application of joint estimation to two short-term interest rates is shown to result in more accurate post-sample predictions relative to both univariate models and the FMP econometric model.     

Confronting the science/value split: notes on feminist economics, institutionalism, pragmatism and process thought

What changes must economics undergo, if it is to become a moreadequate discipline, furthering of survival and flourishing?This essay argues that a break must be made from contemporarymainstream economics at the level of ontology (i.e., about thenature of reality). Drawing on neglected traditions of pragmatistphilosophy and process metaphysics, some elements of ‘old’institutionalist economics, and late-twentieth century naturalscience, it demonstrates that ample argument exists for a viewof the world as open, evolving and permeated with value. Furthermore,feminist scholarship offers an explanation for why such a worldviewfaces an uphill battle for acceptance.     

BP: developing excellence in the global enterprise

World-class supply management organizations like Honda of America, John Deere, Chrysler, Hewlett Packard, and Motorola all understand the power of continuous improvement in the supply base. The best supplier management and development programs help suppliers--on a long-term basis--develop their own strength and expertise in suggestion systems, new product development, and high quality production results.     

An Analysis of the Out-of-Market Gap for DVDs in the U.S.

We examine the out-of-market gap – the time between the end of a film’s theatrical run and its release on DVD – for a sample of U.S. films during 1988-2005. The average gap declined from 58.14 days in 1998 to 27.93 days in 2005; by 2005, 39% of the films were released on DVD prior to leaving the theaters. Probit and hazard models are estimated to explore the factors that influence a distributor’s decision to release a film on DVD before it exits the theaters, and the timing of the release for films that appear on DVD after they leave the theaters.