Mending the family tree a reconciliation of the linearization and levels schools of AGE modelling

This paper offers a critical comparison between the North American levels school of applied general equilibrium modelling, and the Norwegian/Australian school of linearizers. The paper develops both the levels and linearized representations of a neoclassical multiregion trade model. This is used as a vehicle for focusing attention on similarities and differences between the two schools. The main conclusions are: (i) that both the levels and linearized versions of non-linear AGE model offer a valid starting point for obtaining accurate solutions to the non-linear equilibrium problem; (ii) when update formulae are not employed, linearized representations are particularly prone to erroneous welfare conclusions; (iii) the levels representation offers a more natural starting point for expressing accounting conditions, whereas behavioural relationships are relatively more easily expressed in a linearized representation. Recent software developments now make both approaches to the representation and solution of non-linear AGE models convenient to implement. Thus the choice of which approach to use will depend on the special needs and preferences of the economist implementing the model. The two traditions of AGE modelling have a great deal in common and both would benefit from greater cooperation.     

Productivity growth, catching-up and uncertainty in China''s meat trade

The potential role of China as a major importer of agricultural products, and the likely impact on world markets has been a topic of considerable debate over the past decade. In this paper, we focus specifically on the livestock sector and develop a detailed analysis of productivity growth in China’s pig and poultry production along with projections of China’s likely meat trade in the year 2010. We use a general equilibrium model which permits us to explore the sensitivity of our projections to macro-economic uncertainty as well as uncertainty in livestock productivity growth rates. Our analysis shows that China’s net trade position is very sensitive to both of these factors. With high livestock productivity growth and a slow-down in the rest of the economy, China could be a substantial competitor in export markets by 2010. On the other hand, slow productivity growth in livestock production, coupled with a rapidly growing macro-economy could transform China into a major market for future meat exports.     

Revisiting "The Fallacy of Free Trade"

The paper examines results presented by Batra in an article entitled "The Fallacy of Free Trade" ( Review of International Economics 1(1) (1992): 19–31). Batra contends that technical change in Japanese manufacturing necessarily reduces US real wages in the confines of a two-good, two-country Ricardo-Viner model. A parsimonious empirical Ricardo-Viner model is constructed to analyze the same issue. It is found that the impact on US real wages is very small. Systematic sensitivity analysis shows that increases in the ral wage are as likely as decreases. It is concluded that Batra's assertions are empirically unlikely.     

Understanding the framing effect: do affective responses to decision options mediate the influence of frame on choice?

Little research has examined how gain- and loss-framed options influence participants’ affective states. In the current paper, we present two studies that measure affective responses to framed options to identify a potential mediator of the relation between frame and choice. We found that participants reported more positive responses after reading gain-framed options that presented a certain outcome compared to loss-framed options that presented a certain outcome, consistent with the choice patterns of the framing effect. We also found that framing effects were mediated by affective evaluation of the options. We suggest future researchers continue to assess the influence of affective response on evaluating options and making decisions.     

The opportunity cost of land use and the global potential for greenhouse gas mitigation in agriculture and forestry

This paper analyses the role of global land management alternatives in determining potential greenhouse gas mitigation by land-based activities in agriculture and forestry. Land-based activities are responsible for over a third of global greenhouse gas emissions, yet the economics of land-use decisions have not been explicitly modeled in global mitigation studies. In this paper, we develop a new, general equilibrium framework which effectively captures the opportunity costs of land-use decisions in agriculture and forestry, thereby allowing us to analyse competition for heterogeneous land types across and within sectors, as well as input substitution between land and other factors of production. When land-using sectors are confronted with a tax on greenhouse gas emissions, we find significant changes in the global pattern of comparative advantage across sectors, regions, and land types. Globally, we find that forest carbon sequestration is the dominant strategy for GHG emissions mitigation, while agricultural-related mitigation comes predominantly from reduced methane emissions in the ruminant livestock sector, followed by fertilizer and methane emissions from paddy rice. Regionally, agricultural mitigation is a larger share of total land-use emissions abatement in the USA and China, compared to the rest of the world, and, within agriculture, disproportionately from reductions in fertilizer-related emissions. The results also show how analyses that only consider regional mitigation, may bias mitigation potential by ignoring global market interactions. For example, USA-specific analyses likely over-estimate the potential for abatement in agriculture. Finally, we note that this general equilibrium framework provides the research community with a practical methodology for explicit modeling of global land competition and land-based mitigation in comprehensive assessments of greenhouse gas mitigation options.     

Outsourcing and the US Labour Market

There is worldwide concern about the vulnerability of the current labour force to displacement by future imported services. In the USA, some have suggested that as much as one‐third of the workforce might be vulnerable to such outsourcing. However, the labour market impacts of this displacement are difficult to assess using purely analytical or statistical approaches. In this paper, simulation methods are used to understand how sensitive the US economy and labour market are to increases in services imports. Specifically, the scenario examined assumes that the share of imported services in total employment increases from 0.8 per cent to 7.25 per cent over a time horizon in which workers are unable to change occupations. In response, it is found that all industries increase their use of imported services and their use of the composite input that is comprised of imported services and tradable labour. With the exception of legal workers, all workers in tradable occupations experience declines in their real wages. Demand for non‐tradable occupations labour rises in the industries that expand the most, while demand falls in shrinking industries. The non‐tradable occupations that are used intensively in the shrinking industries experience declines in real wages, while the real wages rise for workers in non‐tradable occupations used intensively in the expanding industries.