Estimation and Testing of Forecast Rationality under Flexible Loss

In situations where a sequence of forecasts is observed, a common strategy is to examine „rationality” conditional on a given loss function. We examine this from a different perspective—supposing that we have a family of loss functions indexed by unknown shape parameters, then given the forecasts can we back out the loss function parameters consistent with the forecasts being rational even when we do not observe the underlying forecasting model? We establish identification of the parameters of a general class of loss functions that nest popular loss functions as special cases and provide estimation methods and asymptotic distributional results for these parameters. This allows us to construct new tests of forecast rationality that allow for asymmetric loss. The methods are applied in an empirical analysis of IMF and OECD forecasts of budget deficits for the G7 countries. We find that allowing for asymmetric loss can significantly change the outcome of empirical tests of forecast rationality.     

Cost-impact of cardiac magnetic resonance imaging with Fast-SENC compared to SPECT in the diagnosis of coronary artery disease in the U.S

Aims: The purpose of this study is to assess the economic cost differences and the associated treatment resource changes between the developing coronary artery disease (CAD) diagnostic tool fast strain-encoded cardiac imaging (Fast-SENC) and the current commonly used stress test single-photon emission computed tomography (SPECT).

Materials and methods: A “payer perspective” model was created first, consisting of long-term and short-term components that used a hypothetical cohort of patients of average age (60.8?years) presenting with chest pain and suspected CAD to assess cost-impact. A cost impact model was then built that assessed likely savings from a “hospital perspective” from substituting Fast-SENC for a portion of SPECTs assuming an average number of annual SPECT tests performed in US hospitals.

Results: In the payer model, using Fast-SENC followed by coronary angiography (CA) and percutaneous coronary intervention (PCI) treatment when necessary is less costly than the SPECT method when considering both direct and indirect costs of testing. Expected costs of the Fast-SENC were between $2,510 and $2,632 per correct diagnosis, while expected costs for the SPECT were between $3,157 and $4,078. Fast-SENC reduced false positives by 50% and false negatives by 86%, generating additional cost savings. The hospital model showed total costs per CAD patient visit of $825 for SPECT and $376 for Fast-SENC.

Limitations: Limitations of this study are that clinical data are sourced from other published clinical trials on how CAD diagnostic strategies impact clinical outcome, and that necessary assumptions were made which impact health outcomes.

Conclusion: The lower cost, higher sensitivity and specificity rates, and faster, less burdensome process for detecting CAD patients make Fast-SENC a more capable and economically beneficial stress test than SPECT. The payer model and hospital model demonstrate an alignment between payer and provider economics as Fast-SENC provides monetary savings for patients and resource benefits for hospitals.     

A New Cluster-Based Financial Vulnerability Indicator and Its Application to Household Stress Testing in Croatia

In this paper, we propose a new approach to household financial vulnerability analysis employing cluster technique in the identification of potentially vulnerable households. The cluster-based vulnerability indicator is applied to stress testing with the specific aim of assessing the extent to which the prolonged economic downturn following the Great Recession of 2008–9 hurt indebted households in Croatia. We compare the results based on the new approach with those based on traditional methods. Interest rate shocks have a stronger effect on household vulnerability in the traditional approach, whereas decrease in employment is found to be more disruptive in the cluster-based approach.     

Under pressure: Evolution of the social economy institutional recognition in the EU

Social Economy encompasses a wide array of private organizations that can be situated along a continuum that ranges from civil society to the business sector, e.g., associations, foundations, cooperatives, social enterprises, social business initiatives. The social sphere populated by SE/TS organizations operates in complex and multi‐layer environments and is particularly sensitive to institutional configuration. This paper deals with the institutional policy and attitude of the EU Commission towards SE/TS organizations in the field of welfare policy. We start with an illustration of the key features of the Social Investment policy framework, that stresses the adoption of an ‘active policy’ orientation and the overriding of more traditional ‘compensatory policies’. Secondly, we analyze the regulatory eco‐system of the EU towards Social Economy in the last three decades. Thirdly, we present the main results of an European research project aimed at analyzing the ‘level of recognition’ and ‘institutionalization’ of the SE sector in ten European Countries. Then, we provide some data about the consistency of the Social Economy in EU, based on several research reports promoted  by European Institutions (EESC). Finally, the main results of the analysis are summarized in order to assess the current conjuncture of the Social Economy sector in Europe.     

A comparison of qualitatively and quantitatively driven analytic procedures of psychotherapeutic group sessions with deviant adolescents

The present paper deals with the therapy-related change in a group of deviant adolescents attending a therapeutic facility. The main issue of two studies reported here is to identify pattern of changes through different methods. The paper describes how the mixing of two different types of analysis may yield a more complex and complete view of the data. The analyses were performed at the same time: the first part (study 1), which was of a clinical–quantitative nature, involved picking out changerelated features through the analysis of the frequency of lemmas in the content of the sessions; the second part (study 2) had a qualitative orientation and traced the pattern of narrative themes in the sessions during the course of time. In both studies, the same data were analyzed at the same times, though each study adopted a different approach. While both approaches focused on change, the results brought out different aspects: the study that adopted the quantitative/clinical approach highlighted changerelated problems and proposed an explanation in terms of the “deviant peer effect”; by contrast, the qualitative study underlined the possibilities offered by change and viewed therapeutic change in terms of the shift in narrative themes from the detachment and lack of responsibility initially shown by the youths towards progressive maturation that may have been due to the efficacy of the therapy. The discussion of results brings us to consider the fuzzy set approach for future research into the field of criminology and group therapy. In conclusion, the paper shows that looking at the same data through two different methodological “lenses” yields different, and only apparently contradictory, conclusions.     

The EU Structural Funds and trust in politicians: another unwanted outcome?

Empirica - Amidst concerns about the effectiveness of the EU Structural Funds and discoveries of their unintended effects, could it be that they also undermine trust in politicians in the recipient...     

The persistence of economic sentiment: a trip down memory lane

Journal of Economic Interaction and Coordination - Although various indicators of economic sentiment are often assessed in macroeconomic studies, the generating process of economic sentiment itself...     

How ethical and political identifications drive adaptive behavior in the digital piracy context

Today, digital piracy remains a growing challenge for both legislators and businesses operating in the entertainment industry. This study explores when and why consumers make trade-offs between illegal and legal streaming services. By drawing on protection motivation theory, we find that consumers' threat and coping appraisals increase their adaptive behavior, i.e., lower intention to consume illegal and higher intention to consume legal streaming services. We also show that the strength of consumers' inherent ethical (relativism) and political (economic liberalism) identities conditions adaptive behavior through social identity theory. We find that low relativism strengthens the adaptive behavior through threat appraisal, while economic liberalism strengthens the adaptive behavior through coping appraisal. Our robustness checks show that these results hold when the model accounts for the level of consumers' digital piracy attitudes. We used a scenario-based approach to test our hypotheses and surveyed 244 consumers who use streaming services. Our study contributes to the literature by showing that consumers' adaptive behavior envisioned through protection motivation theory can be weakened or strengthened by their ethical and political identities.