Economic mobility along the business cycle. The case of Peru

The performance of Latin American countries in reducing poverty and expanding the middle class has been remarkable. By taking a close look at the Peruvian experience, we examine how this aggregate behavior relates to business cycle conditions and whether different population groups share this behavior. We find that social mobility is cyclical; it decreases in recessions but increases with strong economic growth. The reduction in poverty in Peru appears to be the result of a sustained increase in the poverty exit rate together with a prolonged decrease in the poverty entry rate. These results hold among heterogeneous groups and are particularly marked for households regarded as initially disadvantaged.     

Foresight analysis of tilapia supply chains (Sistema Producto) in four states in Mexico: Scenarios and strategies for 2018

In order to increase competitiveness among individual producers and to encourage their integration, the federal government of Mexico has pursued the establishment, at both the state and national levels, of supply chains, or Sistema Producto (SP). For fisheries and aquaculture, 33 SPs exist at the state level and 7 at the national level, 1 of them for tilapia. The objective of this study is to carry out a foresight analysis (FA) of 4 tilapia SPs in Mexico—for the States of Colima, Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán—analyzing their 2018 vision for the development of the tilapia chain. FA provides an integral vision of both the internal and external environments, identifying the key factors for each SP and helping to develop the best strategies in order to compete successfully. Sonora, Tabasco and Yucatán identify marketing aspects as key elements for their 10-year future: adding value to the product by means of new processing technologies, developing their own brand, and identifying and differentiating their product based on sanitary issues. Colima focuses its industry future success on efficiency improvements. Finally, the main technological disruptions identified by the 4 states are the incremental use of information technology, product and process certification, new hatcheries with genetically-improved fry, and new processing methodologies developed and/or applied.     

FINANCIAL SAFETY NETS

We study the optimal design of financial safety nets under limited private credit, asking whether and when it is optimal to restrict ex ante the set of investors that can receive public liquidity support. When the government lacks commitment, we show that the optimally designed safety net covers only a subset of investors. Compared to an economy where all investors are protected, this results in more liquid portfolios, better social insurance, and higher welfare. Our results can rationalize the prevalence of limited safety nets as well as the coexistence of traditional and shadow banks.     

An empirical approach to the organisational determinants of spin-off creation in European universities

Given the importance in recent years of the phenomenon of academic entrepreneurship in European universities, knowledge about determinants and performance of this technology transfer mechanism may have important managerial and policy implications. Applying the resource-based view at universities, we have tested the influence of five bundles of resources and capabilities on spin-off activity rates as well as on the performance of new spin-offs in a sample of seven European universities. These five bundles are: technology transfer policies and strategies; human capital; stock of technology; resources and capabilities of technology transfer offices; and support measures for academic entrepreneurship. Our results show that excellence of human capital and the presence of university-based financial support measures are strongly associated with both spin-off activity and performance. Another interesting finding is related to the availability of university-based non-economic support measures (training, counselling, etc.), which have no influence on spin-off activity but are significantly associated with performance of new spin-offs. We also discuss some interesting relationships between explanatory variables.     

Does knowledge explain trust behaviors and outcomes? The different influences of initial knowledge and experiential knowledge on personal trust interactions

This paper examines the influences of initial knowledge and experiential knowledge on trust behaviors and trust outcomes, respectively, at an interpersonal level. We use an experimental dynamic trust game, and our results show that (1) the initial knowledge that exists a priori between a trustor and a trustee helps to explain the trustor's trust behaviors toward the trustee, and (2) the experiential knowledge gained directly by a trustor during a specific trust interaction with a trustee influences the trust outcome, i.e. the difference between the original expectations of the trustor and the subsequent trust behaviors. Our results contribute to human resource literature by clarifying the specific influences of different types of knowledge on interpersonal trust relationships (e.g. between managers and employees) and by supplementing the traditional notion that trust within a firm develops slowly by showing that personal expectations have an immediate and important influence on trust output.     

Converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits*

This paper deals with life care annuities, i.e. bundled products comprising a life annuity and long-term care insurance. It aims to assess the cost of converting retirement benefit into a life care annuity with graded benefits using a pre-existing public pay-as-you-go pension scheme. With this objective in mind, we present an actuarial method based on array calculus for valuing this type of life care annuity. The health dynamics of the annuitant rely on a reversible illness-death multistate framework. The paper contains a numerical example in which mortality and disability assumptions are based on data from the USA and Australia, although this should be viewed simply as an illustration. In addition, in order to check the coherence of these data, we compute life expectancy for both healthy and dependent persons, and then for dependent persons in each of the states of dependence. The effect of ruling out the recovery assumption on the annuity’s cost is also assessed. The analysis provides valuable insights into how much it would cost to introduce these annuities and enables us to make some policy recommendations to help ensure that this combined pension scheme has a good actuarial design.     

The Return Performance of Cubic Market Model: An Application to Emerging Markets

This article studies the performance of the high-order moment capital asset pricing model (CAPM) market models in emerging markets. We apply the cubic market model (4-moment CAPM) to 16 emerging market stock indices ranging from January 2010 to September 2015. Performance of the model is evaluated through the Fama and MacBeth’s two-step regression and through different corrections proposed in the literature, as well as generalized method of moments (GMM) estimation. According to Fama–MacBeth’s procedure, CAPM, the quadratic and cubic market models seem to be insignificant for the analyzed sample; however, the GMM estimation shows that quadratic model is valid for Indian, Polish, and Thai country indices, whereas cubic market model is accurate for Indian country index.     

Labor Market Analysis and Public Policy: The Case of Morocco

This article uses detailed industry and household data to understandwhy Morocco's labor market performed poorly in 1985–95.The data indicate that marked structural changes and weak demandin the product market were responsible. This article makes twocontributions to the literature. The first is specific: it underscoresthat the demand for labor is a derived demand and that the performanceof the product market is an important determinant of the performanceof the labor market. The second is more general: it demonstratesthat this kind of microeconomic analysis, using data sets thatare often available in developing countries, can inform policydesign.     

Beyond Single-Factor Affine Term Structure Models

This article proposes a new approach to testing for the hypothesisof a single priced risk factor driving the term structure ofinterest rates. The method does not rely on any parametric specificationof the state variable dynamics or the market price of risk.It simply exploits the constraint imposed by the no-arbitragecondition on instantaneous expected bond returns. In order toachieve our goal, we develop a Kolmogorov-Smirnov test and applyit to data on Treasury bills and bonds for both the United Statesand Spain. We find that the single risk factor hypothesis cannotbe rejected for either dataset.     

Tradable water saving certificates to improve urban water use efficiency: an ex‐ante evaluation in a French case study

This paper proposes a system of tradable Water Saving Certificates to improve the efficiency of water allocation between Drinking Water Utilities at river basin level. A market institutional set‐up, inspired from recent policy developments in the energy sector, is proposed. An original analytical price‐endogenous model is developed to simulate trade intensity, equilibrium price and efficiency gains in this urban water market. The economic model is implemented in a French case study using mathematical programming. It is used for conducting an ex‐ante evaluation of trade possibilities and efficiency gains, considering different spatial restrictions aimed at controlling environmental externalities. Our modelling exercise provides evidence of the benefits of the proposed Water Saving Certificate scheme.