Testing for structural stability in the whole sample

The paper examines a Lagrange Multiplier type test for the constancy of the parameter in general models with dependent data without imposing any artificial choice of the possible location of the break. In order to prove the asymptotic behaviour of the test, we extend a strong approximation result for partial sums of a sequence of random variables. We also present a Monte-Carlo experiment to examine the finite sample performance of the test and how it compares with tests which assume some knowledge of the possible location of the break.     

Gender and regional inequality in human development: the case of Spain1

In this paper, we present estimates of the Human Development Index and the Gender-Related Development Index in the Autonomous Communities of Spain. Our case study of Spain, a developed country with clear gender and regional differences, demonstrates the importance of adjusting human development indices in accordance with gender discrimination and regional inequalities. We also show the significance of the income component in assessing the development level of women in countries like Spain, where lack of employment or low remuneration are the chief characteristics of women's inequality. Our analysis makes clear that the Gender-Related Human Development Index has limited applicability in developed countries; it also illustrates the need for alternative variables or models to assess inequality in those countries.     

Investment trust IPOs: Issuing behaviour and price performance Evidence from the London Stock Exchange

In this paper, we document an average first day return of 1.91 percent for the population of 105 investment trust IPOs during the period from January 1984 through August 1992 on the London Stock Exchange. This is the first study that finds evidence of significant first day returns for a sample of closed-end fund IPOs. The results also suggest that investment trust IPOs are subject to ‘hot’ issue periods. These tend to occur when there is a marked narrowing in the discounts of seasoned investment trusts. Initial gains are, however, short lived; by the end of their first year, investment trust IPOs substantially underperform a number of relevant benchmarks and, on average, trade at discounts to their underlying net asset values.     

Labor Market Analysis and Public Policy: The Case of Morocco

This article uses detailed industry and household data to understandwhy Morocco's labor market performed poorly in 1985–95.The data indicate that marked structural changes and weak demandin the product market were responsible. This article makes twocontributions to the literature. The first is specific: it underscoresthat the demand for labor is a derived demand and that the performanceof the product market is an important determinant of the performanceof the labor market. The second is more general: it demonstratesthat this kind of microeconomic analysis, using data sets thatare often available in developing countries, can inform policydesign.     

Towards a science and technology‐policy for South Africa

The history of industrial development in South Africa is marked by lack of a coherent science and technology policy. The changing political and economic context has brought a recognition of the need for such a policy, especially for attaining international competitiveness. This article explores some considerations that should enter into the formulation of such a policy. It focuses on the definition of goal sets for science and technology policy and on the mechanisms needed to pursue them; discusses the debate between the structuralist and neoclassical approaches to the role of technology in growth and development; and examines the roles of various research and development agents and some of the main determinants of R&D activity for their implications for policy instruments.     

Is globalisation undermining the welfare state?

This paper analyses the evolution of the welfare states in themajority of OECD countries during the pre-globalisation (1946–80)and globalisation (1980–2000) periods. Our purpose isto find out whether globalisation has produced a convergencetowards a smaller welfare state, funded increasingly by non-mobilefactors such as labour, property and consumption rather thanby mobile factors such as capital. The data presented here challengethe claims about such a convergence, showing that social publicexpenditures and public employment have continued to expandduring the globalisation period in most OECD countries. We alsoshow that the welfare states remain rooted in the politicaltraditions that have governed them.     

Metatheory as the key to understanding: Schumpeter after Shionoya

In his recent book, Yuichi Shionoya departs from previous Schumpeterianstudies. He sets out to reconstruct Schumpeter's metatheoreticalframework, which he argues is the key to a correct interpretationof his substantive writings. The centrepiece of this projectis the thesis that Schumpeter has a coherent methodologicalposition—instrumentalism—which consistently underpinshis theoretical work. The present paper examines this thesis,and in so doing paves the way for an alternative hypothesison Schumpeter. This hypothesis is based on Tony Lawson's workon the philosophy of economics.     

Mittlerer quadratischer Prognosefehler bei der Prognose des Abwicklungsergebnisses mittels der Chain-Ladder-Methode

Often in non-life insurance claims reserves are the largest position on the liability side of the balance sheet. The determination of adequate claims reserves in two consecutive accounting years leads to the so-called development result, which is defined as the difference of two successive predictors for the claims reserves. If the predictors for the claims reserves are unbiased the expected development result is equal to zero. However, since in claims reserving one predicts future payments the observed development result will in general deviate from the expected value. In the present paper we analyze this deviation. In an example we discuss the results.