Comparing Open-loop With Markov Equilibria in a Class of Differential Games

We consider a class of differential games with transition equations that are homogeneous of degree one. For any game G with a discount rate r , consider a Markov-perfect equilibrium (MPE) with strategies that are linear in the state variables. We show that the time paths of the control variables of this equilibrium constitute an open-loop equilibrium of a corresponding game G , which differs from G only in that its rate of discount r is equal to r plus a suitably chosen constant. In the context of a resource depletion game, this implies that the open-loop solution is more conservationist.
JEL Classification Nos.: C72, C73, Q30.     

The impact of innovation on export behavior： An empirical analysis of Lao garment firms

Research on the role of innovation as important factor for creating and maintaining competitiveness of nations and firms has long been popularized among scholars and policy makers. The impact of innovation on exporting has been investigated in many countries. However, this issue has paucity of research in the Lao PDR. This study empirically investigates whether or not innovation performed by Lao garment firms determines their exporting behaviors. Utilizing the Probit and Tobit regression to analyze the data from the recent survey of industrial cluster development of Lao garment industry in 2007, the empirical results show that innovation as measured directly by “new product” and “new production process” have positive impact not only on export probability but also export intensity in the case of Lao garment firms. This implies that Lao garment finns who become the innovators have high probability to be exporters. Moreover, among exporters who are innovators outperform non-innovators in terms of export intensity. In addition, this study also finds that Lao garment exporters enjoy more competitive advantage due to lower labor cost. The findings from this study have important policy implications regarding how the government can support Lao garment firms to be innovators in order to sustain export performance.     

Hospital use behaviors and associated costs in a health insurance organization, Japan

Physicians are known to play an important role in the rise of health care costs. But patients--the other side of the chain of health care systems--have been given little attention. The present study utilized the outpatient claims (in the belief that the outpatient hospital visits are mainly decided by the patients) from a health insurance organization in Japan (the Fukuoka Prefecture public service mutual aid association for government employees who serve in small cities, towns, and villages) to analyze the employee behaviors in the use of hospital care and the costs associated with these behaviors. Number of diseases diagnosed for an employee, number of claims an employee submitted for one disease, number of hospitals an employee visited, number of claims an employee had from one hospital, and the total number of claims an employee submitted were used to describe the hospital use behaviors. Results showed that some employees exhibited unusual behaviors, characterized by having an extremely large number of diseases diagnosed, visiting a large number of different hospitals, having a large number of claims, etc. Higher medical expenditures were associated with such behaviors. The findings of this study suggest that the patients' role in the rise of health care costs cannot be ignored, and cost-containment strategies targeting modification of patient behaviors in the use of hospital care may prove to be very useful.     

Risk premia in international equity markets revisited

Recent evidence suggests that global equity markets are becoming more risky. We develop a model to explain risk premia in international equity markets. The model is then used to investigate the changing nature of conditional risk premia and their effect on unconditional global risk. Using this model we find that the increase in international variance and covariance of realized excess returns can be attributed to systematic variations in global risk premia correlated across markets as well. Understanding this additional source of increased global correlation is important. These results have interest both for practitioners and for those interested in modeling global asset prices.     

A Factor Allocation Approach to Optimal Bond Portfolio

This paper proposes a new method to a bond portfolio problem in a multi-period setting. In particular, we apply a factor allocation approach to constructing the optimal bond portfolio in a class of multi-factor Gaussian yield curve models. In other words, we consider a bond portfolio problem in terms of a factors’ allocation problem. Thus, we can obtain clear interpretation about the relation between the change in the shape of a yield curve and dynamic optimal strategy, which is usually hard to be obtained due to high correlations among individual bonds. We first present a closed form solution of the optimal bond portfolio in a class of the multi-factor Gaussian term structure model. Then, we investigate the effects of various changes in the term structure on the optimal portfolio strategy through series of comparative statics.     

Chances for a pacific free trade area

The establishment of the EEC was a major event of the 1960s. It has had a significant impact on international trade and investment and has wrought a profound change in the world balance of economic power. The emergence of the enlarged EEC and the implementation of a Pacific Free Trade Area (PAFTA) could have a more profound influence in shaping the world of the 1970s.     

Impacts of Road Access on Subjective Well‐being in Timor‐Leste

The impacts of access to roads on subjective well‐being at the household level are empirically examined using Timor‐Leste's nationally representative surveys. This paper examines not only the quantity, but also the quality of road infrastructure and, thus, extends existing studies that only consider the benefits of road accessibility. It is found that proximity to main roads may not necessarily result in improved welfare. Instead, ensuring all‐weather access to roads appears to be a more significant factor in raising household well‐being. Specifically, road accessibility during the rainy season reduces the probability of households reporting a ‘less than adequate’ (low satisfaction) response by 13–25 percent. This suggests that in Timor‐Leste, and likely in other developing economies under similar conditions, maintenance of existing roads is more essential to well‐being than building more roads.     

ANALYSIS OF AN OPTION MARKET DYNAMICS BASED ON A HETEROGENEOUS AGENT MODEL

We propose a two‐market model in which an option market and its underlying market interact. Many artificial markets representing stock markets have been developed, and these models have been actively used to investigate the effects of market rules. However, no artificial market model for derivatives has been intensively studied, even though derivative markets are increasingly important. We tested stylized facts that can be observed in an option market and our model can replicate fat‐tailed distributions, positive skew of the return and positive autocorrelation of the square of return of implied volatility. We found that the speed of volatility mean reversion for fundamentalists and the existence of chartists are important factors for replicating the positive skew of an option market. The value of fat‐tailed distributions and positive skewness of the return get closer to the real value by coupling an option market and an underlying market. Copyright © 2014 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

Agriculture and climate change in global scenarios: why don't the models agree

Agriculture is unique among economic sectors in the nature of impacts from climate change. The production activity that transforms inputs into agricultural outputs involves direct use of weather inputs (temperature, solar radiation available to the plant, and precipitation). Previous studies of the impacts of climate change on agriculture have reported substantial differences in outcomes such as prices, production, and trade arising from differences in model inputs and model specification. This article presents climate change results and underlying determinants from a model comparison exercise with 10 of the leading global economic models that include significant representation of agriculture. By harmonizing key drivers that include climate change effects, differences in model outcomes were reduced. The particular choice of climate change drivers for this comparison activity results in large and negative productivity effects. All models respond with higher prices. Producer behavior differs by model with some emphasizing area response and others yield response. Demand response is least important. The differences reflect both differences in model specification and perspectives on the future. The results from this study highlight the need to more fully compare the deep model parameters, to generate a call for a combination of econometric and validation studies to narrow the degree of uncertainty and variability in these parameters and to move to Monte Carlo type simulations to better map the contours of economic uncertainty.