The number of pure Nash equilibria in a random game with nondecreasing best responses

We randomly draw a game from a distribution on the set of two-player games with a given size. We compute the distribution and the expectation of the number of pure-strategy Nash equilibria of the game conditional on the game having nondecreasing best-response functions. The conditional expected number of pure-strategy Nash equilibria becomes much larger than the unconditional expected number as the size of the game grows.     

On a Statistical Analysis of Implied Data

We propose a method of evaluating the accuracy of the implied default probabilities. We modify the model proposed by Duffie et al. (Rev Fin Stud 12:678–720, 1999) to allow the parametric statistical analysis. The pseudo maximum likelihood estimator is defined and to justify our method we shall prove the consistency and the asymptotic normality of the estimator. The key step is to define a pseudo score vector and apply the method of Wald (Ann Math Stat 20: 595–601, 1949) and a delta method. We also introduce the bootstrap for estimating the accuracies, which is similar to that for regression models. To implement our method to the real data, we shall recommend the bootstrap rather than asymptotic normality.     

The increasing importance of nonfarm income and the changing use of labor and capital in rice farming: the case of Central Luzon, 1979–2003

There have been sharp increases in nonfarm income among farm households in Central Luzon for the last few decades. This study attempts to identify the effects of the increasing nonfarm income on the use of tractors and threshers and on the employment of hired labor as a substitute for family labor. We found that while the increased nonfarm income positively affects the ownership of tractors, it has no significant impact on the use of agricultural machines due presumably to the development of efficient machine rental markets. We also found that the increased nonfarm income leads to the increased use of hired labor, thereby releasing family labor to nonfarm jobs.     

Toward Reasonable Capitalism: The Role of John R. Commons’s Price and Business Cycle Theories

Abstract

John R. Commons thought that prices should be stable and that the law of supply and demand should be controlled by the power of the state through patent law and by protecting bargaining equality. Commons also thought that prices should be stabilized by macro monetary policy. These means would allow the realization of a “reasonable price.” Commons called the objective and measurable value in money, which is determined by a court ruling, “reasonable value.” Analysis of Commons’s price and business cycle theories point toward the realization of both “reasonable price” and “reasonable value” and toward “reasonable capitalism” that can replace banker capitalism.     

Import Penetration and Domestic Process Innovation

This paper develops a model of R&D competition between domestic and foreign firms that explicitly incorporates the effect of the market structure. We focus on how differences in costs modify the effects of increases in the number of foreign firms on R&D investments of domestic firms. We show that an increase in the number of foreign firms may have a positive effect on a domestic firm's R&D investment and also show that two trade policies, tariffs or quotas, could have different effects on R&D investments of domestic firms. A welfare analysis shows that greater cost advantages increase social welfare.     

Assessing Mortality Risk from Heat Stress due to Global Warming

With gradually progressing climate change in the future, the frequency and scale of hot summers like those observed in various places around the world in recent years will undoubtedly increase, giving rise to strong concerns over increased risk of death due to heat stress. Based on this background, we have developed a method to assess future changes in mortality due to heat stress with the entire globe as the target, and performed trial calculations using this method. The purpose of this report is to draw people's attention to the possible severe consequences of climate change by presenting the severest estimates in the uncertainty range due to adaptation/acclimation expected in the future, so as to induce further analysis and discussion on policies and measures. For the trial calculations, future changes in temperature were derived from the results of simulation using an Atmosphere‐Ocean General Circulation Model with the highest spatial resolution in the world at the time of the study. Population densities were assumed not to alter in the future. Assuming that no adaptation or acclimation takes place, when the rates of change of excess mortality due to heat stress are examined by country, the results of our calculations show increases of approximately 100% to 1000%. It is confirmed that the burden of climate change impact is quite unequal among countries, at least from the viewpoint of heat stress mortality. When considered together with present population densities, significant increases in excess mortality density can be seen in China, India, and Europe. These regions are characterized by large losses due to climate change in absolute quantitative terms. The need to consider the adoption of adaptation measures is therefore most urgent in these regions.     

Agricultural policy reforms and WTO commitments on domestic support in Japan

The purpose of this paper is to provide a comprehensive review of Japan＇s agricultural domestic policy since 1995 in the context of the current international negotiations in the WTO Doha Round, which has as one aim further reductions of trade-distorting support among member countries. Apparently, Japan＇s attitude towards agricultural domestic policy reform is one of compliance with the WTO, which requests member countries to reduce their Aggregate Measure of Support （AMS） through trimming trade-distorting （amber box） support and/or transforming traditional-type agricultural subsidies to decoupled-type ones. Japan reduced its amber box support by nearly 80 percent between 1995 and 2000. This drastic reduction is mainly attributable to Japan＇s removal of rice from the amber box in 1998. In addition, following the WTO＇s principle of decoupling, Japan launched an extensive agricultural subsidy reform in 2007. This paper, however, shows the ironical realities of Japanese agricultural policy. Neither a sharp reduction of amber box support nor Japan＇s 2007 reform necessarily means there will be a reduction of trade-distorting effects. On the contrary, the 2007 reform may in fact stimulate domestic rice production.     

Integrated consumer shopping decision model: A Japanese online supermarket context

Abstract

Online shopping is not a new marketing channel but has been growing tremendously throughout Japan. The rapid growth of Internet technology has enabled the Japanese to break away from their conservative culture and embark on different shopping experiences by shopping online. With the growing importance of online reviews to promote one’s business, Japanese online supermarkets are looking for ways to increase consumer-generated content. The purpose of this study is to investigate Japanese repeat online consumers and the antecedents that encourage them to review their shopping experiences, including the supermarket website they used and product availability in the online supermarket. It was found that online supermarkets must focus on establishing confidence with their repeat online consumers if they desire to increase the electronic word of mouth (e-WOM) of their online supermarket. Implications are discussed in relation to online supermarkets and repeat consumers’ intentions to review their online shopping experiences.