Delphi: A brief look backward and forward

In response to a request by the guest editors, we have set down our thoughts regarding the evolution of Delphi, beginning with our immersion in the subject in the late 1960s and concluding with some rumination about its future. Our focus is on the changing roles of Delphi. Most importantly, with the profound impact of the internet on organizational and community planning systems, it will foster a new age of participation through communication, coordination, and collaboration.     

On the forecasting of the challenging world future scenarios

Logistic and power law methodologies for both retrospective and prospective analyses of extended time series describing evolutionary growth processes, in environments with finite resources, are confronted. While power laws may eventually apply only to the early stages of said growth process, the Allee logistic model seems applicable over the entire span of a long range process. On applying the Allee logistic model to both the world population and the world gross domestic product time series, from 1 to 2008 AD, a projection was obtained that along the next few decades the world should experience a new economic boom phase with the world GDP peaking around the year 2020 and proceeding from then on towards a saturation value of about 142 trillion international dollars, while the world population should reach 8.9 billion people by 2050. These results were then used to forecast the behavior of the supply and consumption of energy and food, two of the main commodities that drive the world system. Our findings suggest that unless the currently prevailing focus on economic growth is changed into that of sustainable prosperity, human society may run into a period of serious economical and social struggles with unpredictable political consequences.     

The Impact of Land-Use Change on Ecosystem Services,Biodiversity and Returns to Landowners: A Case Study in the State of Minnesota

Land-use change has a significant impact on the world’s ecosystems. Changes in the extent and composition of forests, grasslands, wetlands and other ecosystems have large impacts on the provision of ecosystem services, biodiversity conservation and returns to landowners. While the change in private returns to landowners due to land-use change can often be measured, changes in the supply and value of ecosystem services and the provision of biodiversity conservation have been harder to quantify. In this paper we use a spatially explicit integrated modeling tool (InVEST) to quantify the changes in ecosystem services, habitat for biodiversity, and returns to landowners from land-use change in Minnesota from 1992 to 2001. We evaluate the impact of actual land-use change and a suite of alternative land-use change scenarios. We find a lack of concordance in the ranking of baseline and alternative land-use scenarios in terms of generation of private returns to landowners and net social benefits (private returns plus ecosystem service value). Returns to landowners are highest in a scenario with large-scale agricultural expansion. This scenario, however, generated the lowest net social benefits across all scenarios considered because of large losses in stored carbon and negative impacts on water quality. Further, this scenario resulted in the largest decline in habitat quality for general terrestrial biodiversity and forest songbirds. Our results illustrate the importance of taking ecosystem services into account in land-use and land-management decision-making and linking such decisions to incentives that accurately reflect social returns.     

Comparing theories to explain e-commerce adoption

E-commerce is a strategy for rapid growth, especially by small and medium sized businesses (SMEs). However, the adoption rate of e-commerce by SMEs in Latin America is still undersized. The authors compare the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and the theory of reasoned action (TRA) using structural equation modeling to determine which is better at predicting e-commerce adoption intentions among 210 SME managers/owners in Chile. Contrary to previous research with American respondents, the study does not find significant differences between the two theories. Thus, academics should select the more parsimonious model (TRA) to study e-commerce adoption issues in developing countries.     

Spare parts demand: Linking forecasting to equipment maintenance

Demand for spare parts is typically intermittent and forecasting the relevant requirements constitutes a very challenging exercise. Why is the demand for spare parts intermittent and how can we use models developed in maintenance research to forecast such demand? We attempt to answer these questions; we present a novel idea to forecast demand that relies upon the very sources of the demand generation process and we compare it with a well-known time-series method. We conclude that maintenance driven models are associated with a better performance under certain conditions. We also outline an inter-disciplinary agenda for further research in this area.     

Responsible Leadership Outcomes Via Stakeholder CSR Values: Testing a Values-Centered Model of Transformational Leadership

The Encyclical-Letter Caritas in Veritate by Pope Benedict XVI suggests to advance towards a new conceptualization of the tenuous relationship between economics and ethics, proposing a “new humanistic synthesis.” Where social encyclicals have traditionally justified policy proposals by natural law and theological reasoning alone, Caritas in Veritate gives great relevance to economic arguments. The encyclical defines the framework for a new business ethics which appreciates allocative and distributive efficiency, and thus both markets and institutions as improving the human condition, but locates their source and reason outside the economic sphere. It places a clear accent on the ontological connectedness of the economic and ethical dimensions of human action. It is the proper ordering of means towards the end of integral human development that allows mankind to leave a vicious circle of consumerism and enter a virtuous circle that applies the creativity fostered by markets. This vision implies a new model of business management that integrates considerations of vocation, purpose, and values at a theological level.     

The Global Economic Ethic Manifesto: Implementing a Moral Values Foundation in the Multinational Enterprise

The Global Economic Ethic Manifesto (“Manifesto”) is a moral framework/code of conduct which is both interactive and interdependent with the economic function of the main institutions of the economic system: markets, governments, civil society, and supranational organizations, which lays out a common fundamental vision of what is legitimate, just, and fair in economic activities. The Manifesto includes five universally accepted principles and values: the principle of humanity; the basic values of non-violence and respect for life; the basic values of justice and humanity; the basic values of honesty and tolerance; and the basic values of mutual esteem and partnership. We posit that the Manifesto provides an ethical foundation for explicitly assisting multinational enterprise's (“MNE”) executive management and boards of directors to meet the moral failures criticisms associated with the expansion of global capitalism, and similarly how the U.N. Global Compact (“Compact”) is focused on addressing complimentary market and institutional failures. In this article, we argue how the Compact and the Manifesto complement each other, explaining how the policies and guidelines of the Compact can now be implemented at the organizational/individual level through a comprehensive human resource management (HRM) plan supporting the ethical framework of the Manifesto. Finally, we have described how the Manifesto completes a comprehensive managerial framework (consisting of both the Compact and the Manifesto) for what we term an “MNE Moral Values-Based Corporate Governance Model.” Ultimately, further research is needed in understanding how much impact external and internal influences make on creating a sustainable ethical culture in MNEs.     

Intellectual Capital and Uncertainty of Knowledge: Control by Design of the Management System

This research, couched in the resource-based view of the firm, investigates the potential for reducing an organization’s decision uncertainty within its intellectual capital (IC) operating environment. Using structural equation modeling, we empirically test if organizational design can reduce the perceived uncertainty related to an IC context, which we refer to as knowledge uncertainty. We found evidence that decentralization and technology infrastructure support a results-based IC management control system which in turn is associated with reduced internal decision uncertainty. Finally, our statistics support a good overall fit for our model. Our findings suggest that if managers structure their organizational control systems appropriately for developing IC capabilities, these systems can lead to reduced internal uncertainty regarding human, structural, and relational capital.