Co-ordinating fiscal authorities in the euro-zone: a key role for the ECB

This paper examines the conditions for fiscal restraint to emergeas Nash equilibrium in the game between fiscal authorities ina monetary union and discusses the implications for the ECB'smonetary strategy. We show that fiscal authorities fail to internalizethe adverse area-wide effects of their policies when the ECBtargets union-wide aggregates. To address this co-ordinationfailure, we propose that the ECB reacts to fiscal restraintby implementing a monetary reward. Applying the pareto- andrisk dominance criteria to the ensuing co-ordination game, weshow that the ECB can ensure convergence upon fiscal restraintby adopting a weakly countercyclical reaction function.     

AASB 1037 Sows the Seeds of Change: A Survey of SGARA Measurement Methods

International developments are set to reignite the controversy over how self-generating and regenerating assets (SGARAs) are measured. The International Accounting Standards Committee is working on an international accounting standard on agriculture due to be effective some time after 1 January 2002. The standard is expected to be similar to AASB 1037 Self-Generating and Regenerating Assets. This is an interesting development since the Australian Accounting Standards Board was urged to not move ahead of international developments when it released Exposure Draft 83 Self-Generating and Regenerating Assets
This paper surveys Australian SGARA measurement practices to assess the extent of reporting change required by AASB 103 7 and its international counterpart.     

A nonlinear long memory model, with an application to US unemployment

Two important empirical features of US unemployment are that shocks to the series seem rather persistent and that it seems to rise faster during recessions than that it falls during expansions. To jointly capture these features of long memory and nonlinearity, we put forward a new time series model and evaluate its empirical performance. We find that the model describes the data rather well and that it outperforms related competitive models on various measures of fit.     

比利时的财富

“请注册为‘D.E.Koninck＇的直升机的主人到咨询台前来好吗？”在首届富世生活比利时峰荟举办地科特赖克展览中心的现场．喇叭里传来这样紧急但礼貌的询问。原来，展览中心的停车场停满了兰博基尼，宾利等名车，但一位直升机的主人不慌不忙地将其两人位的飞机停在了车辆旁边。显然．这位主人宁可被罚也一心想要参加世界顶级奢侈品盛会，毫无疑问，他是对的。     

Neglected dynamics in panel data models; consequences and detection in finite samples*

The bias of various estimators for static cross-section and panel data models is assessed in a simulation study, where the actual data generating process is a dynamic adjustment mechanism with random individual effects. It is concluded that the consequences of incorrectly estimating a static model can be rather serious. Therefore, it is important to have an accurate technique available for the detection of dynamics. Two exact similar tests for the presence of a lagged dependent variable in panel data models are developed; in some simulation experiments these tests outperform standard asymptotic test procedures. Empirical results on Engle curves for food illustrate the above issues.     

Is the Dutch consumer a true ricardian?

Summary In this paper the intertemporal optimization approach is adopted in order to estimate an empirical version of Blanchard's (1985) overlapping generations model. The observed sluggishness in consumption is incorporated into the model by recognizing both durability and habit formation as relevant determinants of total consumption. The model is estimated using quarterly data for The Netherlands from 1969:I to 1990:IV. The empirical estimates suggest that the status of the Dutch consumer as a true Ricardian is unambiguously rejected. The results furthermore suggest that this rejection is due to the existence of both liquidity constraints and finite planning horizons.Comments by Peter Broer, Jeroen Kremers, Debora Molenaar, Rick van der Ploeg, Frans Spinnewyn, Casper de Vries, Ed Westerhout and two anonymous referees are very much appreciated. Elbert Dijkgraaf has provided invaluable research assistance. We also thank participants of the OCFEB workshop and the CES seminar at the K.U. Leuven for their comments.     

BUDGETARY POLICIES, FOREIGN INDEBTEDNESS, THE STOCK MARKET, AND ECONOMIC GROWTH

This paper analyses a small open economy with overlapping generations,endogenous growth, and a risk premium on foreign debt. A balanced-budgetincrease in public consumption or a rise in government debtraises the ratio of foreign debt to domestic income and theinterest rate, but depresses economic growth. Supply-side policiesaimed at internalising production externalities boost foreignindebtedness, the interest rate, and economic growth. A higherglobal interest rate leads, if initial foreign indebtednessis not too large, to a lower foreign debt and, if a countryis dragged down by large levels of foreign debt, lower economicgrowth.