Information for Authors

Instructions for Authors

Information for Authors     

Closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model via polynomial expansions

Articles in Marketing and choice literatures have demonstrated the need for incorporating person-level heterogeneity into behavioral models (e.g., logit models for multiple binary outcomes as studied here). However, the logit likelihood extended with a population distribution of heterogeneity doesn’t yield closed-form inferences, and therefore numerical integration techniques are relied upon (e.g., MCMC methods). We present here an alternative, closed-form Bayesian inferences for the logit model, which we obtain by approximating the logit likelihood via a polynomial expansion, and then positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a flexible family that is now conjugate and integrable. For problems where the response coefficients are independent, choosing the Gamma distribution leads to rapidly convergent closed-form expansions; if there are correlations among the coefficients one can still obtain rapidly convergent closed-form expansions by positing a distribution of heterogeneity from a Multivariate Gamma distribution. The solution then comes from the moment generating function of the Multivariate Gamma distribution or in general from the multivariate heterogeneity distribution assumed. Closed-form Bayesian inferences, derivatives (useful for elasticity calculations), population distribution parameter estimates (useful for summarization) and starting values (useful for complicated algorithms) are hence directly available. Two simulation studies demonstrate the efficacy of our approach. JEL Classification C6 · C8 · M3     

Lifecycle‐based donor performance analysis

With charities of all sizes now having the ability to collect and store very large quantities of data about their donors on in‐house database systems, detailed donor performance analyses have an increasingly essential role to play in the effective planning and management of fundraising. If, however, such activities are to support fully the work of fundraisers then it is important that they are undertaken from the perspective of the fundraiser rather than of the specialist data analyst. This paper introduces an approach to donor performance analysis that is founded on what is termed a ‘donor lifecycle model’. The aim of this is to provide a formal analysis methodology that provides end results that can be more easily interpreted by nonspecialists and so more effectively used in support of the efficient planning of fundraising programmes. Copyright © 2000 Henry Stewart Publications     

Teaching Net Present Value Analysis: Returns-to-Assets versus Returns-to-Equity

We survey textbooks from agricultural economics and other subject matter areas to determine their treatments of the returns-to-assets versus returns-to-equity methods for determining the net present value of investment projects. Textbook authors disagree about the appropriate method, often give conflicting advice as to how a given method should be applied, and do not show how the results of the two methods can be reconciled. We provide a consolidated discussion of the circumstances under which the two methods produce the same net present value.     

Coping with Stress in Outdoor Recreational Settings: An Application of Transactional Stress Theory

This study uses a transactional model of stress and coping as a way to understand how outdoor recreationists deal with negative setting elements during a recreation experience. Within the transactional model, coping behaviors can be viewed as the result of on-going transactions among personal and environmental factors, perceptions of threat or stress, and the perceived effectiveness of coping strategies. The current study focuses specifically on the relationship between reported levels of stress and the types of coping strategies used by recreationists in Glacier National Park. Findings suggest that certain behavioral and cognitive coping responses to stress are associated with different levels of reported stress. Specifically, respondents with lower levels of stress were more likely to engage in certain cognitive adjustments to cope with detracting situations. Respondents reporting higher levels of stress were more likely to engage in either direct action aimed at changing the environmental conditions or are displaced entirely from the recreational setting. In addition to these primary findings, the study discusses the range of coping behaviors employed.     

Applications of parks management information systems

The paper presents a conceptual model of an integrated management information system for municipal parks maintenance and operations. Research efforts in management information systems are presented in three categories: Business Research, Federally Sponsored Research, and Park and Recreation Systems Research. A case is made for further empirical research, the development of normative models, and evaluative criteria in an attempt to realize the full potential of electronic data processing in parks and recreation.     

ECONOMIC ANALYSIS IN THE MAINTENANCE,REPAIR, AND OVERHAUL INDUSTRY: AN OPTIONS APPROACH

This paper presents a practical case application of the real options framework to a multi-stage investment in the aerospace maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) industry. With the deregulated commercial airline industry and military procurement reform, the $44 billion MRO sector must implement tools to remain strategically poised. In this case study, the MRO participant values a multi-stage irreversible expenditure in maintenance equipment and processes under air travel demand uncertainty using a real options analysis. The investment scenario is viewed from a delay, growth, and compound options framework, and an appropriate sensitivity analysis is performed. The main contribution of this paper is the detailed real option framing, valuation, and discussion that may be used as an illustration for industry practitioners or classroom instruction.