当代国际贸易发展的趋势及我国的对策

20世纪90年代以来，经济全球化和高新技术的发展，对传统国际贸易产生了深刻的影响。国际贸易发展在保持其80年代所出现的发展中国家在世界贸易中地位增强，国际贸易在支持世界经济增长以及服务贸易异军突起等特点的基础上，近期又出现了几大新的发展趋势，而研究国际贸易的发展趋势，是我国制定和完善出口发展战略的重要前提。本通过研究当代国际贸易的发展趋势，分析了我国应该如何制定相应的政策来促进我国对外贸易的发展。     

我国外资适度规模的测算:基于“双缺口模型”的实证研究

基于“双缺口”理论建立模型,实证分析了我国外资适度规模问题,结论表明:我国对外资的利用存在适度规模问题,外资实际规模与外资适度规模之间存在着较大的“缺口”;不合理的外资规模对我国经济的发展具有负效应,其原因是外资投向的产业结构和地区结构不合理,以及对国内企业的“挤出”效应所致。     

磷化铝"动态潮解"环流熏蒸技术浅析

介绍了磷化铝“动态潮解”环流熏蒸技术的原理及其特点，并通过分析比较不同产气方式环流熏蒸技术的安全性、可操作性和经济性，得出磷化铝“动态潮解”环流熏蒸技术是一种措施安全、技术先进、操作简便、经济实用，对环境污染小的熏蒸杀虫技术。     

增值税会计理论框架的构建——一个具体事项会计理论框架协调性与异质性研究的样本

探讨具体事项的会计理论框架对完善会计理论、指导具体会计准则建设和实务发展十分必要。增值税会计是财务会计与税务会计的共同研究领域,增值税业务作为一个具体事项既是会计研究对象整体的一部分,又具有区别于其它事项的本质特征。因此,其理论框架既要保持与整个会计理论框架相协调,又要突出区别于其他事项的自身特征。     

金融契约与金融法:互动原理与建构意义

前次贷危机时代,传统金融契约与法律约束保持相对稳定的关系。伴随着各国金融混业经营放开、金融法日益松缓,金融契约出现异化和重整。由此分析金融契约的变动轨迹,总结金融契约与金融法的"强度均衡原理"与"匹配均衡原理",并提出金融主体博弈下的价值均衡机制和一体化调整均衡机制。     

中国GDP出口分解及贡献新测度

基于全球价值链分解方法,构建国家层面和产业层面GDP出口分解框架,分析中国出口对GDP及GDP增长的贡献和变化机制。研究发现,中国国家层面和产业层面出口对GDP及GDP增长的贡献均呈现先增后减的倒“U”形特征。制造业贡献起主导作用,需要巩固传统优势,培育新优势;占国内生产总值比重较大的服务业贡献相对较小,需要进一步提升国际竞争力;贡献的变化主要是基于产业增加值出口比重的增长,产业结构变动产生了一定的阻碍作用。     

辽河某区块VSP测井应用

VSP是一种地震观测方法,全称为垂直地震剖面,与通常地面观测地震剖面相对应。其地震波是在地表附近被激发,沿着井孔各个深度布置一些多级多分量的检波点来进行观测。本文经过对锦265井进行VSP测井资料采集和相关研究,落实构造形态特征及断层发育情况,求取准确的速度参数,预测落实其油水分布关系及其不同层系储层发育情况,为该区接下来的相关的油气挖潜和勘探部署提供准确的地质依据。     

Uncertainty,Specialization and Government Intervention

We use a one‐factor two‐sector model of comparative advantage with uncertainty to compare the effects of different specialization levels on growth under various scenarios. We derive the static and dynamic optimal level of specialization under the centralized and the decentralized economy. We identify the conditions under which the socially optimal specialization level entails positive investment in the comparatively disadvantaged sector. We show that in this case the socially optimal solution cannot be reached by the decentralized economy which is in fact characterized by over‐specialization. We conclude presenting a simple tax‐based redistributive mechanism able to achieve the optimal level of specialization in a decentralized economic system.     

The Poisson Log-Bilinear Lee-Carter Model

Abstract

Life insurance companies deal with two fundamental types of risks when issuing annuity contracts: financial risk and demographic risk. Recent work on the latter has focused on modeling the trend in mortality as a stochastic process. A popular method for modeling death rates is the Lee-Carter model. This methodology has become widely used, and various extensions and modifications have been proposed to obtain a broader interpretation and to capture the main features of the dynamics of mortality rates. In order to improve the measurement of uncertainty in survival probability estimates, in particular for older ages, the paper proposes an extension based on simulation procedures and on the bootstrap methodology. It aims to obtain more reliable and accurate mortality projections, based on the idea of obtaining an acceptable accuracy of the estimate by means of variance reducing techniques. In this way the forecasting procedure becomes more efficient. The longevity question constitutes a critical element in the solvency appraisal of pension annuities. The demographic models used for the cash flow distributions in a portfolio impact on the mathematical reserve and surplus calculations and affect the risk management choices for a pension plan. The paper extends the investigation of the impact of survival uncertainty for life annuity portfolios and for a guaranteed annuity option in the case where interest rates are stochastic. In a framework in which insurance companies need to use internal models for risk management purposes and for determining their solvency capital requirement, the authors consider the surplus value, calculated as the ratio between the market value of the projected assets to that of the liabilities, as a meaningful measure of the company’s financial position, expressing the degree to which the liabilities are covered by the assets.     

The Effectiveness of Advertisements Utilizing Four Types of Endorsers

Four groups of students were presented with identical advertisements for sangria wine, attributed to one of four different types of endorsers: a celebrity, student, professional expert, and company president. A fifth group serving as a control was presented with the same advertisement, but it was not attributed to an endorser. Subjects were asked to rate the wine on three scales: expected selling price, probable (anticipated) taste and intent-to-purchase. In addition, the advertisements were rated on their believability. While endorsers did not significantly affect the expected selling price or believability, they had an effect on probable taste and intent-to-purchase. The authors conclude that it is probably worthwhile for an advertiser to use an endorsement for his product, rather than utilize a similar advertisement without an endorsement.