金融创新条件下提高银行监管有效性的理论研究

金融危机的现实破坏力及银行监管的成本收益问题迫使人们对监管有效性问题进行思考。本文通过对现代银行监管理论的一个概括性评述,得出了监管理论对我国实践的启示,并归纳总结了金融创新对我国监管实践提出的新挑战,为探索有效银行监管的路径提供逻辑及理论上的铺垫,进而从成本收益的视角对金融创新条件下有效监管边界进行了分析,研究了“监管敏感区”,探析了金融创新条件下实施有效监管的路径。     

外汇储备、外汇交易量与CHIBOR利率的VAR模型(2000～2004)——兼论“三元悖论”下冲销干预与货币政策的独立性

本文以“三元悖论”为切入点,从总量与结构两方面考察当前结售汇制度对商业银行外汇头寸及外汇交易量的影响,进而考察在货币政策时滞的影响下央行冲销干预的效果以及货币政策的独立性。结论认为:我国外汇储备成因中政策性制度安排(结售汇)作用突出,现行结售汇业务导致外汇交易量受到外汇储备的冲击,冲销干预的有效性十分有限且不确定性很强。在CHIBOR利率的波动中,外汇储备和外汇交易量的作用不可忽视,同时外汇交易量的波动中,外汇储备与CHIBOR利率的冲击作用贡献明显,货币政策独立性受到侵蚀。     

缩小收入差距是巩固经济运行的重要一环

为了保障经济机制运行良好,使改革开放的成果惠及全体人民,缩小收入差距已经是迫在眉睫、亟待解决的问题。     

我国银行业改革与引进外资的开放竞争策略

针对我国银行业面临的问题和外资银行进入后的竞争压力,本文通过分析几种不同改革思路后认为,我国银行业改革的核心问题是产权和公司治理,两者紧密相连,产权改革是为了获得良好的公司治理,私有化和引入外资都是可供选择的产权改革方式之一,理论上不存在何者更优.国有商业银行改革的关键在于改变国有独资所有权结构为多元投资结构,可供选择的方案有不改变所有权性质的多个国有投资主体的单一所有制和引进包括国有、民营、外资参股的多元所有制.鉴于我国银行业目前的特点,外资参股并不是一种最优的选择,引进外资银行的正确策略是:独资优于合作,合作优于合资.     

从"电化教育"到"教育技术"--实践的发展与理论的升华

通过分析AECT’94定义的演变和电化教育的发展历程，本着历史的、现实的态度，对教育技术的定义给出了合理的建议，并分析了电化教育与教育技术的关系，以统一人们在思想上和理论上的认识。     

我国石油企业跨国经营战略的探讨

石油企业走出国门，实施跨国经营，是解决我国国内油气资源供求矛盾加剧的必然选择，也是维护和保障我国石油安全乃至国家经济安全的必由之路。文章探讨了我国石油企业国际化经营的必然性及其动因，进一步分析了目前我国石油企业国际化经营的发展现状，在此基础上提出了我国三大石油集团实施“走出去”战略的八项对策。     

磁防垢除垢技术研究与应用新进展

回顾了磁防垢除垢技术的发展历程，介绍了磁防垢除垢技术的作用效果和应用情况，分析了磁防垢除垢技术研究现状和存在的问题，跟踪报道了磁防垢除垢技术研究的新进展。     

基于神经网络系统的项目投资风险评价探讨

与传统的评价方法不同，神经网络模型具有自学习、自组织、自适应能力等的特点，它较好的克服了传统项目评价局限性以及依赖专家经验的弊端，为项目投资风险评价开辟了新途径。论文阐述了神经网络结构与原理，分析了项目投资风险评价的神经网络模型，通过应用评价，进一步探讨其应用价值及其意义。     

Optimizing the credit term decisions in supply chain finance

We study a credit term determination problem in the context of a supplier-buyer supply chain. The supplier's credit term decision is simultaneously made with its production and inventory decisions, and most importantly, it is impacted by the buyer's order quantity. We present a new game-theoretic framework to model this problem, which captures the interaction between the supplier's credit term decision and the buyer's order decision in a multi-period setting. An exact method based on nonlinear programming is implemented to obtain the optimal solutions. We apply our methodologies on a real world case. The computational results show that our approach significantly outperforms the heuristics with fixed credit terms, and either a short or a long credit term can be sub-optimal for the supplier in profitability. Our work offers the first data-driven model and solution approach that assists purchasing and supply managers to make optimal dynamic credit term decision in conjunction with production, ordering and inventory decisions in a game-theoretic setting.     

Forecast combinations under structural break uncertainty

This paper proposes two new weighting schemes that average forecasts based on different estimation windows in order to account for possible structural change. The first scheme weights the forecasts according to the values of reversed ordered CUSUM (ROC) test statistics, while the second weighting method simply assigns heavier weights to forecasts that use more recent information. Simulation results show that, when structural breaks are present, forecasts based on the first weighting scheme outperform those based on a procedure that simply uses ROC tests to choose and forecast from a single post-break estimation window. Combination forecasts based on our second weighting scheme outperform equally weighted combination forecasts. An empirical application based on a NAIRU Phillips curve model for the G7 countries illustrates these findings, and also shows that combination forecasts can outperform the random walk forecasting model.