UK Assessment: Can Recession be Avoided?

There is a growing danger that the UK will suffer a serious recession in 1999. In this article, Adrian Cooper assesses the risks to the OEF/LBS forecast and considers what steps policy-makers might take to support demand and activity. With the weakness of consumer and business confidence currently posing the biggest threat, they must be seen to be decisive, with further substantial interest rate cuts essential.     

ON THE WEALTH EFFECTS OF THE SUPERVISORY GOODWILL CONTROVERSY

We provide evidence on the potential wealth effects of the 1996 U.S. Supreme Court decision that the U.S. government had violated contractual obligations when, in 1989, it passed legislation prohibiting savings and loan associations from counting “supervisory goodwill” as capital. The Supreme Court decision produced large wealth gains for the savings and loan plaintiffs, as did prior court decisions in favor of these savings and loans. However, little evidence exists to suggest negative market responses to important events surrounding the 1989 legislation.     

Trans-organizational innovation: a framework for research

Information and communication technologies, the evolution of a pattern of innovation based on technology fusion and the transition towards a knowledge-based economy are dominant trends. These trends support trans-organitational innovation, which typically involves the design of complex and technologically hybrid products. Trans-organizational innovation involves generating new knowledge out of knowledge inputs which are distributed across disciplines and organizations which may be geographically dispersed. This is critically dependent on management processes associated with learning. Learning is a contextually situated and interaction-intensive process, which during product innovation involves mutual interaction between characteristics of product and those of context. Such interactions continually evolve the designed form and functionalig of a product. Existing research has tended to neglect the complexities involved in trans-organitational innovation. A product-in-context framework for analyzing the trans-organitational innovation process is detailed in this paper. This framework can be used to examine the relationship between critical features at Product and context which mediate learning during trans-organizational product design and innovation and account for product design variation.     

Currency devaluation and the Cooper paradox in the open-economy macro-disequilibrium model

Zusammenfassung Abwertung und das Cooper-Paradox im Modell einer offenen Volkswirtschaft mit Makro-Ungleichgewicht. - In diesem Aufsatz wird das Cooper-Paradox im Rahmen eines IS-LM-BT-Ungleichgewichtsmodells überprüft. Die Analyse wird dadurch angereichert, da der monet?re “spillover”-Effekt einer Abwertung integriert wird in das Modell einer offenen Volkswirtschaft mit Makro-Ungleichgewicht, in dem unechter Handel zum Ungleichgewichtspreis stattfinden kann. So k?nnen sich die “spillover”-Effekte in der gesamten Volkswirtschaft über die Marktverflechtung verbreiten. Es wird gezeigt, da\ unabh?ngig von der Marshall-Lerner Bedingung die heimische Volkswirtschaft schrumpfen wird, obwohl die Abwertung die Handelsbilanz verbessert (Cooper-Paradox). Au\erdem wird gezeigt, da\ dann, wenn die Marshall-Lerner-Bedingung erfüllt ist, die Abwertung sowohl zu einer Verschlechterung der Handelsbilanz als auch zu einer Expansion der heimischen Volkswirtschaft führen kann. Dieses Ergebnis widerspricht dem, was Cooper in den Entwicklungl?ndern mit einer Abwertung beobachtet hat.

---

Resumen Devaluación monetaria y la paradoja de Cooper en un modelo macroeconómico de desequilibrio de una economía abierta. - En este trabajo se estudia la paradoja de Cooper dentro del contexto de un modelo IS-LM-BT de desequilibrio de ?spillover? separable. Se enriquece el análisis mediante la integración del efecto ?spillover? monetario de una devaluación al modelo macroeconómico de desequilibrio de una economía abierta, en el cual se permite el comercio a precio de desequilibrio; el efecto ?spillover? resultante se propaga a toda la economía atraves de los eslabonamientos entre los mercados. Se demuestra que la economía nacional se contrae, a pesar de que la devaluatión favorece al balance comercial (paradoja de Cooper), independientemente de que se satisfaga o no la condición de Marshall y Lerner. Asimismo, se muestra que si se satisface la condición de Marshall y Lerner la devaluación puede dar lugar tanto a una deteriorización del balance comercial como a una expansión de la economía national. Este resultado contrasta con lo observado por Cooper en países en desarrollo que han devaluado.

---

Résumé Dévaluation et le Cooper-paradoxe dans un modèle macro-déséquilibre d’une économie ouverte. - Dans cet article l’auteur examine le paradoxe de Cooper en cadre d’un modèle IE-LM-BT. L’analyse est enrichie par l’intégration de l’effet monétaire ?spillover? d’une dévaluation dans un modèle macro-déséquilibre d’une économie ouverte dans lequel le commerce faux peut se passer en prix déséquilibre. C’est pourquoi les effets de ?spillover? peuvent propager dans l’économie entière par les relations d’intermarché. Il est démontré qu’indépendant de la condition de Marshall-Lerner l’économie locale se contracte même si la dévaluation améliore la balance commerciale (le paradoxe de Cooper). Il est aussi démontré que si la condition de Marshall-Lerner est satisfaite une dévaluation peut détériorer la balance commerciale et stimuler l’économie locale en même temps. Ce résultat est contraire à l’expérience de Cooper qui a observé les pays en voie de développement qui dévaluaient leurs monnaies.

     

The impact of the foreign corrupt practices act on us exports

In 1977 the Foreign Corrupt Practices Act (FCPA) was enacted to penalize US firms and their employees for paying bribes to foreign government officials. If bribe payments influence the awarding of contracts and the FCPA regulation differentially affects US exporters compared to foreign competitors, then US exporters' bribe-paying ability and market share would be expected to decline. This study provides empirical evidence that the FCPA had a negative effect on US exports to non-Latin American countries but not to bribery prone ones in Latin America.     

EXAMINATION OF A PATH MODEL RELATING INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY INFRASTRUCTURE WITH FIRM PERFORMANCE

This article draws on the resource‐based view of the firm to investigate the mechanisms through which information technology (IT) impacts firm performance. Research suggests that the relationship between IT and firm performance may be both direct and indirect. In this study, a path model is tested that proposes a firm's IT infrastructure resources as having both a direct impact on organizational performance, as well as an indirect effect that is propagated through its impact on an intermediate organizational resource, a firm's logistics information system (LIS). The results suggest that positive firm performance may be derived directly from an organization's superior IT infrastructure, as well as indirectly, through its enabling impact on LIS's. These findings contribute to our understanding of the nature of the relationship between IT and firm performance by exploring the value of IT at both the process and organizational levels.     

Schedule jockeying and route swamping: bus markets in Britain need kerb rights

The experience of British bus deregulation has resulted in less on-the-road competition than anticipated, and a high degree of industry concentration We argue that the specific form of deregulation in Britain has created a property rights problem in the cultivation of passenger congregations at the kerb. The result has been schedule jockeying and route swamping . From a property rights perspective, the disappointing results can be seen as a commons problem. A nuanced approach to property rights at bus stops, permitting scheduled service to appropriate its investment in cultivating passenger congregations, and allowing freewheeling jitneys to compete on the route, could bring the benefits that many had expected from deregulation.