Structural Change in Pakistan's Interindustry Relationships

This paper examines and discusses the structural change in Pakistan's interindustrial relationships by comparing the direction of change in the input–output coefficients of the direct input requirements matrix, the total requirements matrix and the business multipliers over the periods 1975–76 and 1984–85.     

SLUM DWELLERS' HOUSEHOLD CONSUMPTION PATTERN AND ITS IMPLICATION FOR COST RECOVERY IN SLUM UPGRADING: Evidence from Dhaka, Bangladesh

Strong emphasis has recently been placed on recovery of improvement costs from slum dwellers for sustainable development of low-income urban settlements. Furthermore, socio-economic stratification of slum dwellers is perceived to influence their consumption and investment patterns in the city. Against this background, populations in six slums in Dhaka, stratified into house owners and renters, were studied. Results show that renters have stronger ties with their rural origin where they are likely to return and remit a significant portion of their income, leaving a limited amount for consumption and investment in the city. In contrast, owners have stronger attachment to the city, remit negligible amounts to their village of origin and pay more attention to city consumption and investment. Consequently, any cost recovery approach to slum upgrading implies heavy reliance on owners. But renters can also be expected to share the cost, to some limited extent, in the form of property tax or community services charges. The key point here is the concurrence of renters and owners on the sharing of costs and benefits.     

Consumer credit and monetary policy in Malaysia

What is the impact of monetary policy on the Malaysian consumer? The study addresses this issue by empirically investigating the consequences of interest rate shocks on consumer credit in Malaysia. The study relies on the impulse response functions and the variance decomposition analysis based on the structural Vector Auto‐regression methodology. Apart from analysing the responses of aggregate consumer loans (ACL) to interest rate changes, further disaggregation is made in efforts to arrive at more detailed findings. In particular, the ACL data are categorized into loans for purchase of residential property, loans for personal uses, loans for credit cards, loans for purchase of consumer durables, loans for purchase of passenger cars and loans for purchase of securities. Through this disaggregation, the study shows the relative sensitivity of the various types of consumer loans to interest rate shocks.     

New information technology in India: The electronics riddle

The paper provides a critical assessment of India's electronics policy from its very inception to the present time. It is argued that despite its narrow scope and many shortcomings, the Indian government's new electronics policy based on the principle of liberalization is a step in the right direction. A much wider and speedier development of advanced electronics technology and its application in critical areas—e.g., transport and communication systems—is recommended for India and other similarly situated “non-electronic” developing countries. The implication of missing the electronics revolution by these countries would be their continuing dependence and backwardness.     

Internal Finance and Corporate Investment

This paper examines Pecking Order/Free Cash Flow behavior in small ($25–$50 million), medium ($100–250 million), and large ($1000 million and over) firms. The purpose is to proffer an explanation for the important role of cash flow on the investment expenditure of firms that is more complete than the commonly given accounts. The Pecking order theory (PO) emphasizes the value‐enhancing influence of cash flow, while the free cash flow hypothesis (FCF) underscores its value‐destroying effect. Using the vector error correction model, we find that although the overall behavior of small firms support the pecking order theory, the cash flow of these firms does not have any causal effect on their investment. We further find evidence of free cash flow theory in large firms.     

FACTOR ACCUMULATION AND THE TERMS OF TRADE: APPLICATIONS TO THE ASIAN FINANCIAL CRISIS

Abstract.  This paper investigates the effects of population growth and capital accumulation on trade and welfare. In the absence of a terms of trade effect, an population increase reduces the standard of living and causes a reduction in welfare. An increase in population causes deterioration in the terms of trade of a labour abundant country, whereas capital accumulation improves them, regardless of the source of growth. Moreover, an increase in the South's population is immiserizing.     

Markov equilibria in dynamic matching and bargaining games

Rubinstein and Wolinsky [Rev. Econ. Stud. 57 (1990) 63] show that a simple homogeneous market with exogenous matching has a continuum of (non-competitive) perfect equilibria; however, the unique Markov-perfect equilibrium of this model is competitive. By contrast, in the more general case of heterogeneous markets, even the Markov property is not enough to guarantee the perfectly competitive outcome. We define a market game that allows for heterogeneous values on both sides of the market and exhibit a number of examples of (non-competitive) Markov-perfect equilibria, with and without discounting. Unlike the homogeneous case, these equilibria allow for inefficient trades and for trade at non-uniform prices. The non-competitive equilibrium may be unique.     

KLSE Long Run Overreaction and the Chinese New-Year Effect

This study investigates long run overreaction and seasonal effects for Malaysian stocks quoted on the Kuala Lumpur Stock Exchange (KLSE), for the period 1986–1996. Stocks exhibiting extreme returns relative to the market over a three year period experience a reversal of fortunes during the following three years. There is also evidence that employing a contrarian trading strategy may yield excess returns. Of particular interest is the apparent existence of a Chinese New Year effect in both the level of market returns, and the overreaction profile for KLSE stocks. These seasonalities mirror the January-effect observed in US markets.     

Dynamics of Wheat Prices in the Wake of Market Reforms: The Case of Pakistan

Using Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedastic (ARCH) method, this paper examines the effects of market reforms on the distribution of real mean prices and their variability before and after reforms. It is found that market-oriented reforms benefited producers and consumers alike. Empirical evidences, generally, support theoretical assertion that mean prices decline in most urban areas and increase in those markets that are located in surplus producing areas. The results also showed that market reforms lead to more price volatility.     

A sustainable state for urban life in poor societies: Bangladesh

Cities in the Third World do not currently have favourable prospects for the future. Their planning is dedicated primarily to coping with pressures of population and infrastructure needs. Any pale imitation of advanced urbanization that they might employ as minimum standards require many times more consumption of energy, water and human time than is available. The concept of a sustainable state for the long term seems unattainable to their policy makers. This exercise seeks a path to a desirable steady state for one of the world's poorest metropolises—Dhaka. This article shows that the essential knowledge, and some experience, already exist which make this transition to sustainability possible, and outlines the crucial features required. Promotion of family planning is assigned the highest priority during the transition, followed by education.