Risk assessment for uncertain cash flows: model ambiguity, discounting ambiguity, and the role of bubbles

We study the risk assessment of uncertain cash flows in terms of dynamic convex risk measures for processes as introduced in Cheridito et al. (Electron. J. Probab. 11(3):57–106, 2006). These risk measures take into account not only the amounts but also the timing of a cash flow. We discuss their robust representation in terms of suitably penalised probability measures on the optional σ-field. This yields an explicit analysis both of model and discounting ambiguity. We focus on supermartingale criteria for time consistency. In particular, we show how “bubbles” may appear in the dynamic penalisation, and how they cause a breakdown of asymptotic safety of the risk assessment procedure.     

Price policy and food consumption in urban Mali

This study investigates the food consumption patterns of different income classes in urban areas of Mali in order to assess the probable effects on dietary adequacy of the expected increase in the consumer price of rice brought about by food policy reform, initiated in 1981. The results are to a degree counterintuitive, demonstrating that understanding consumption patterns and their determinants is critical to informed policy making.     

The space of outcomes of semi-static trading strategies need not be closed

Semi-static trading strategies make frequent appearances in mathematical finance, where dynamic trading in a liquid asset is combined with static buy-and-hold positions in options on that asset. We show that the space of outcomes of such strategies can have very poor closure properties when all European options for a fixed date \(T\) are available for static trading. This causes problems for optimal investment, and stands in sharp contrast to the purely dynamic case classically considered in mathematical finance.     

Experiences with and the viability of a recycling pilot project in a Cape Town township

This paper documents the experience with an NGO-initiated recycling programme in Hangberg Township, Cape Town. The 11-week trial project achieved 70% sign-up but suffered substantial drop-out. The NGO’s attempt to brand block leaders as ‘eco-heroes’ was unsuccessful and there were concerns about the distribution of project benefits. The project diverted 26% by mass of the estimated solid waste refuse stream of 2.5 kg per person per week and made R1752 from selling 1.965 tons of recycling. Some 970 kg of compostables were diverted but not processed as part of the project. Project accounts revealed a benefit–cost ratio of 0.123 in which the sale of recyclables and landfill costs avoided were the only benefits and wages and consumables the main costs. While a more equitable distribution of benefits could improve the cost–benefit ratio, there are other good reasons for donors to fund projects of this nature.     

Do Farmers and the Environment Benefit from Adopting Integrated Pest Management Practices? Evidence from Kenya

We estimate the impacts of a bundle of integrated pest management (IPM) practices on mango yield, mango net income, insecticide use, human health and the environment, using recent household survey data of mango growers in Kenya. We employ a multinomial endogenous switching treatment regression model with an ordered probit selection rule to establish counterfactual outcomes. Our results indicate that IPM‐adopting farmers have higher mango yields and mango net income, and also use lower quantities of insecticide and cause less damage to the environment and to human health. In addition, switching from one IPM to multiple IPM practices generates greater economic, environmental and human health benefits. These results suggest intensification of IPM‐adoption efforts and encouragement of the use of multiple IPM practices. These positive outcomes could be achieved through greater provision of technical support and extension services to farmers.     

ON THE LOWER ARBITRAGE BOUND OF AMERICAN CONTINGENT CLAIMS

We prove that in a discrete‐time market model the lower arbitrage bound of an American contingent claim is itself an arbitrage‐free price if and only if it corresponds to the price of the claim optimally exercised under some equivalent martingale measure.     

The value of subjectivity: problems and prospects for 360-degree appraisal systems

This paper focuses on the problems and prospects of 360-degree feedback methods. The rationale behind these appraisal systems is that different evaluation perspectives add objectivity and incremental validity to the assessment of individual performance. This assumption is challenged in this paper. Our research shows that there is a consistent difference in self- and supervisor ratings especially. This implies that, as long as these differences are understood as the result of several effects in measuring one's performance, the multi-source assessments will lead to a false sense of security and objectivity. Instead, when the differences are understood as subjective evaluations with a value in themselves, then different perceptions can be used for a better understanding between supervisors and employees of the working relations, personal performance and underlying motives for career development. Several recommendations are made for human resource management practices and future research.     

Possible selves and identity in relation to career development: evidence from Chilean male middle‐aged managers' career narratives

Social and economic conditions, as well as the dynamism of the Chilean labour market, place new demands on middle‐aged workers who have to explore both internal and external opportunities to develop successful careers. We assumed that possible self and identity in future states are core organizing aspects in this process. Identities, being core components of the self‐concept, comprise self‐representations that are contextually based and rooted in a social structure. Given the fact that there is a serious lack of empirical research in this domain, this study was aimed to help close an important gap in the literature. More specifically, it was intended to better understand the role played by possible selves and identity – that is, knowledge about what the self might eventually achieve or become – in career development. Based on an in‐depth qualitative study among 25 male middle‐aged Chilean managers, we found that the possible selves reported: (1) are evolving processes that vary in terms of content, stability and elaboration; (2) are related to career variety; (3) help in both career transitions and the adjustment process in novel situations; and (4) act as an incentive in career development. It is important to stress that in cases of challenging work contexts, employees are urged to create and recreate new selves and identities at work in order to increase their adaptability to ever‐increasing working life demands and enhance their employability.