On Jumps and ARCH Effects in Natural Resource Prices: An Application to Pacific Northwest Stumpage Prices

Continuous-time models of natural resource prices usually preclude the possibility of large changes (jumps) resulting from unexpected events. To test for the presence of jumps and/or ARCH effects, we combine bounds and the Monte Carlo test technique to obtain finite-sample, level-exact p -values. We apply this methodology to stumpage prices from the Pacific Northwest and find evidence of jumps and ARCH effects. To assess the impact of neglecting jumps on the decision to harvest old-growth timber, we develop an autonomous, infinite-horizon stopping model for which we provide a new method of resolution. Our numerical results show the importance of modeling jumps explicitly.     

PRIMARY VERSUS SECONDARY PRODUCTION TECHNIQUES IN U.S. MANUFACTURING

In this paper we analyze the determinants of material inputs into individual production activities as a function of their outputs. We use observations on a large cross-section of U.S. manufacturing plants from the Census of Manufactures, including those that make goods primary to other industries, to study differences in production techniques. We find that in most cases material requirements do not depend on whether goods are made as primary products or as secondary products. We thus elucidate support for the commodity technology model as a useful working hypothesis.     

Managing service innovation: the need for selectivity rather than 'best practice'

In this paper we contrast the notions of best practice and configurations contingent on environmental conditions. The analysis draws upon our study of 38 UK and 70 US service firms. Four system configurations are identified, and the results provide an opportunity for updating the typologies of services, and suggest that practices and performance are multi-dimensional.     

INPUTS,OUTPUTS AND PRODUCTIVITY CHANGE IN THE AUSTRALIAN SHEEP INDUSTRY

Tornqvist quantity indexes of output and input are computed for the period 1952/53 to 1976/77 from Australian Sheep Industry Survey data. The computation includes estimating the annual service flow from durable inputs. Total productivity in the sheep industry is estimated to have increased by 2.9 per cent per annum during this 25-year period. While the ratio of capital employed per unit of labour has increased, materials, services and livestock have been the inputs for which the quantity used has increased most rapidly. On the output side, there has been a move towards greater diversification with both crop and cattle enterprises on 'sheep properties' increasing in relative importance.     

EVIDENCE ON ADJUSTMENTS IN MAJOR NATIONAL STOCK MARKET LINKAGES OVER THE 1980S

This paper measures the alterations that have occurred in equity market correlations for six major internationally active stock exchanges between 1980 and 1987. The markets are chosen so as to allow for geographical diversity while still accounting for almost ninety percent of total worldwide equity market capitalization. The VAR variance decomposition technique is used to measure intermarket linkage patterns. We find substantial alterations in intermarket linkage patterns occurring over the 1980s. While the US market (the New York Stock Exchange) is still the dominant financial force in world equities trading, other markets (particularly those in the Pacific Basin region) now account for an increasing impact on observed index correlations in the system. This paper suggests that world financial integration is, in part, responsible for the altered linkage patterns observed over the 1980s.     

Orbital mechanics of south korea's technological development: an examination of the 'gravitational' pushes and pulls

This paper highlights some of the critical challenges faced by Korea, more specifically the Korean government and industry, as it strives to find a stable and secure place in the evolving international division of labour. Changes in two specific areas are discussed: the international technology market-palce and Korea' technology relationships with a number of key economies.     

THE NON-CONSTANCY OF EQUIVALENCE SCALES

Comparisons of households of differing composition are usually achieved through the use of equivalence scales. It is well known that the choice of scales can have considerable impact on the conclusions drawn from studies of welfare and poverty. There is a considerable literature on the theoretical issues relating to equivalence scales, but applied work on income distribution and related areas almost invariably takes scales to be constant irrespective of income. This paper focuses on the relation of scale to income, by applying theoretical analysis to some simple household types. The conclusion is that scales are not constant and that current practice should be changed.