Achieving sustainable urban transport mobility in post peak oil era

Peak oil is the term used to describe the point at which global oil production will peak and thereafter start to decline. Recognising that transport uses a significant portion of global energy, the shortage of fossil fuel in post peak oil era will pose a global challenge in the transport sector. The paper presents an assessment of international research to illustrate the possible time frame of peak oil. It investigates the key implications of the oil shortage that threaten to render the urban transport system of Australia ineffective. Synthesis of documented research evidence suggests three major implications in the urban transport sector: (1) a reduction of mobility for individuals, (2) an increase of transport disadvantage, and (3) a disruption of urban freight movement. In addition, the paper explores strategies to cope with the devastating effects of the shortage of the fossil fuel in the post peak oil era. A number of strategies to achieve sustainable mobility in the future urban transport system are presented. These strategies are summarised into three main themes: (1) a mode shift to alternate transport modes, (2) an integration of land use and transport planning, and (3) a global technical effort for alternate fuels and vehicles. It is expected that a concerted global effort in this regard can have a far-reaching effect in achieving sustainability in urban transport mobility.     

Investigating the impact of excess zeros on hurdle‐generalized Poisson regression model with right censored count data

Typically, a Poisson model is assumed for count data. In many cases, there are many zeros in the dependent variable, thus the mean is not equal to the variance value of the dependent variable. Therefore, Poisson model is not suitable anymore for this kind of data because of too many zeros. Thus, we suggest using a hurdle‐generalized Poisson regression model. Furthermore, the response variable in such cases is censored for some values because of some big values. A censored hurdle‐generalized Poisson regression model is introduced on count data with many zeros in this paper. The estimation of regression parameters using the maximum likelihood method is discussed and the goodness‐of‐fit for the regression model is examined. An example and a simulation will be used to illustrate the effects of right censoring on the parameter estimation and their standard errors.     

Productivity,the Terms of Trade,and the Real Exchange Rate: Balassa–Samuelson Hypothesis Revisited

The paper examines how the Balassa–Samuelson hypothesis is affected by a modern variation of the standard model that allows product differentiation (within the traded and nontraded goods sectors) with the number of firms determined exogenously or endogenously. The hypothesis is found to be fragile in the modified framework. Small variations in the elasticity of substitution between home and foreign traded goods (within the range of estimates suggested in the literature), for example, can make the effect of a traded‐goods productivity improvement on the real exchange rate negative or positive, as well as small or large. This result provides a potential explanation of the mixed empirical results that have been obtained on the relationship between productivity and the real exchange rate.     

International spillovers of knowledge and sectoral productivity growth: some evidence for Canada and the United States

This paper develops and tests a two-country model of a monopolistically competitive industry in which the production function shifts endogenously via national and international spillovers of knowledge. The basic version of this model implies that, in the long run, the growth rate of sectoral productivity is the same in each country. In support of this version, for a number of matched Canadian and US manufacturing industries, the paper finds that these two countries' rates of sectoral productivity growth tend to converge despite marked international differences in R and D.     

Pricing risky corporate bonds: An empirical study

This paper empirically studies a model for pricing risky corporate bonds proposed by Baaquie—based on the seminal Merton. The proposed model provides an exact solution for the price of a risky corporate bond with a finite maturity and explains the market price of corporate fixed coupon bonds as being the result of the market risk that is carried by the bond. Baaquie's model is empirically tested using 42 fixed coupon bonds issued by 23 US corporations, between 2011 and 2017. It is found that the proposed model estimates most bond prices quite accurately. Market time (similar to the concept of psychological time), which is distinct from calendar time, is quantified in the paper and is an exogenous behavioral parameter that plays a pivotal role in improving the accuracy of the pricing model for long-maturity risky bonds.