Volatility forecasting: long memory,regime switching and heteroscedasticity

In this article, we account for the first time for long memory, regime switching and the conditional time-varying volatility of volatility (heteroscedasticity) to model and forecast market volatility using the heterogeneous autoregressive model of realized volatility (HAR-RV) and its extensions. We present several interesting and notable findings. First, existing models exhibit significant nonlinearity and clustering, which provide empirical evidence on the benefit of introducing regime switching and heteroscedasticity. Second, out-of-sample results indicate that combining regime switching and heteroscedasticity can substantially improve predictive power from a statistical viewpoint. More specifically, our proposed models generally exhibit higher forecasting accuracy. Third, these results are widely consistent across a variety of robustness tests such as different forecasting windows, forecasting models, realized measures, and stock markets. Consequently, this study sheds new light on forecasting future volatility.     

When Do Qualitative Risk Disclosures Backfire? The Effects of a Mismatch in Hedge Disclosure Formats on Investors' Judgments

Disclosure standards mandate the quantitative disclosure of hedging‐instrument‐related risks but not the disclosure of hedged‐item‐related risks. We examine how a match (mismatch) in formats, caused by making quantitative (qualitative) hedged item disclosures alongside quantitative hedging instrument disclosures, affects investors' integration of information from these two related disclosures. Our first experiment varies the hedged item disclosure format (quantitative or qualitative) and the portion of risk hedged (small or large). We find that when disclosure formats are mismatched, the less comparable nature of the two disclosures caused investors to neglect the offsetting relationship when assessing net risks. As a result, risk and investment judgments were influenced by the more prominent quantitative hedging instrument disclosures. Our second experiment finds that the use of a qualitative debiaser that clarifies the relationship between the two disclosures led to the integration of information and mitigated this effect.     

Estimating yield curves of the U.S. Treasury securities: An interpolation approach

Following the approach of interpolation, this paper proposes the multiple exponential decay model to fit yield curves for both the U.S. TIPS market and the conventional Treasury security market. Several estimation methods, including the unconstrained/constrained nonlinear minimization, quadratic programming, and the iterative linear least squares, are applied to estimate the unknown parameters according to different curve‐fitting purposes. Comparisons between the proposed model and the alternatives show that the multiple exponential decay successfully (1) adapts to a variety of shapes associated with yield curves, (2) (partially) keeps in line with the economic interpretations of Nelson–Siegel summarized by Diebold and Li ( 2006 ), and (3) dominates the competing models in curve‐fitting performance measured by mean fitted‐price errors over the sample period. In addition, the exact specification of a nonparametric interpolation model is pinned down by applying three statistical tools, which enable us to jointly take into account validity, optimality, and parsimoniousness of the proposed model.     

努力把青岛西海岸建成国际自由贸易港区

加快青岛西海岸国际化建设,尽快建成一个国际自由贸易港区,不仅关系青岛市在新世纪的新发展、新跨越,而且对未来环渤海、黄海经济圈和沿黄经济带的开放发展,具有重要的战略意义。一、建设国际自由港区是我国扩大开放、参与国际经济竞争的战略需要在开放的国际环境下,建立置于一     

目前“信心”尤其重要

有人说,现在房地产业已经到了冬天;有人说,房地产业就在寒冬里;还有人说,房地产的冬天即将过去.前一个时期舆论的热点话题如"拐点论"、"百日巨变论"、"断供说",简直撑破了眼球.     

以质量为本振兴企业

以质量为根本，全面提高企业管理水平，最终达到提高经济效益的目的。     

营销角度的特许经营及其竞争法上的思考

特许经营是一种新型的销售方式,作为企业分销系统的构成要素,能够起到降低风险,沟通生产与消费的作用。然而在实际经营过程中也会出现许多诸如指定购买与搭售、联合定价、独占经营等违反竞争法的问题。为适应不断变化的竞争形势,应从竞争法的层面上对其加以规制。     

审计风险模型探讨

在对审计风险的理解基本一致的前提下,通常认为存在着一个审计风险模型。教科书中的审计模型通常是这样的:审计风险=固有风险×控制风险×检查风险(或译“觉察风险”)。对于这个审计风险模型,曾经有过的争论集中于检查风险。作为学术争论的结果和表现形式,美国审计准则说明第39号《审计抽样》曾将检查风险分解为分析性检查风险和详细测试风险,英国审计实务委员会1987年推荐的审计风险模型则在检查风险后加上了“抽样风险”。尽管存在争议,但这一基本模型已经被美国的职业团体和学术界所认可。我国《独立审计具体准则第9号——内部控制与审计…     

税费改革催生农业新活力

在2004年1月8日召开的山东省十届人大二次会议上,山东省省长韩寓群在<政府工作报告>中指出,2004年山东省将继续深化农村税费改革,除烟草外全面取消农业特产税,同时降低农业税税率1个百分点.该项内容成为人代会上的热门话题.     

聊城市的三个“刘老大”

在山东西部的聊城市,三个企业的迅猛发展使这个尚欠发达的地区让人刮目相看。从1993年至今,山东时风集团在零起步的情况下,一举夺得农用拖拉