Consumption loans under uncertainty

A stationary equilibrium for a sequence of markets under uncertainty is defined as a stationary stochastic process of temporary market equilibria. The purpose of this paper is to apply this equilibrium concept to a consumption-loans model with stochastic resources. Given that agents live for only two periods, that resources are allocated independently and identically, and that traders make “admissible” consumption decisions, it is shown that the sequence of equilibrium trades on forward markets is a Markov chain. When this chain is strictly stationary with a unique invariant distribution, the sequence of markets is in stationary equilibrium. Using Gale's classification scheme, a strictly stationary chain exists for each type of economy (classical, Samuelson, mixed). Questions concerning convergence to the invariant distribution for each type of economy are addressed by determining when the chain satisfies various recurrence conditions.     

Consumer reactions to technology in general and to a specific technological innovation: Supermarket checkout scanners

Intellectuals have been concerned with technology's impact on society. Many, if not most, viewed the results of technology as being more negative than positive. It has been supposed that consumers also held these negative views. Research in one major United States city indicates that this may not be the case. Generally consumers gave positive evaluations of technological change. However this did not mean they evaluated one result of technological change, checkout scanners, positively. Views of technology were related to demographic characteristics. Generally the older, non-employed, poorer respondent had a more negative view.

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Verbraucher-Reaktionen auf generelle und spezifische technologische Entwicklungen: das Beispiel Checkout Scanner (automatische Lesegeräte) in Supermärkten

Zusammenfassung Zahlreiche Veröffentlichungen befassen sich skeptisch mit der Geschwindigkeit und den Ergebnissen des technischen Fortschritts. Einige Autoren nehmen an, daß es auch bei Konsumenten Vorbehalte gegenüber technologischen Veränderungen gibt, und vermuten, daß diese Vorbehalte Auswirkungen auf das Anbieterverhalten haben, wenn es um die Einführung von für den Kunden sichtbaren neuen Technologien geht. Ein Beispiel für solche Technologien sind automatische Code-Leser an Supermarkt-Kassen.Der Lebensmittelhandel hat lange gezögert, solche automatischen Lesegeräte einzuführen; er befürchtete negative Reaktionen der Kunden auf diese Geräte und auf die damit verbundene Aufhebung der Preisauszeichnung am einzelnen Produkt. Diese Geräte können die computergespeicherten Produktpreise abrufen, sodaß der Handel keine Preisauszeichnung mehr an der Ware vornehmen muß. Einige Untersuchungen zeigten, daß Konsumenten mit dem Wegfall der Preisauszeichnung nicht einverstanden waren, und vermuteten als Ursache eine allgemeine Abwehrhaltung der Konsumenten gegenüber Technologie. Der vorliegende Beitrag berichtet über eine im Jahre 1982 in Milwaukee, USA, durchgeführte Untersuchung zur Überprüfung dieser Vermutung.Die Ergebnisse dieser Untersuchung deuten insgesamt daraufhin, daß die meisten Befragten dem technologischen Fortschritt positiv gegenüberstehen. Die überwiegende Meinung ist, daß Technologie das tägliche Leben beeinflußt, aber auch, daß das Tempo der technologischen Entwicklung angemessen ist und ihre Ergebnisse nützlich sind. Was speziell die Checkout Scanner betrifft, so gibt es nur sehr wenige Befragte, die sie grundsätzlich für eine schlechte Einrichtung halten. Anders sieht es aus, wenn nach dem Wegfall der Preisauszeichnung gefragt wird. Die überwiegende Mehrheit spricht sich gegen diesen Wegfall aus, zugleich sind aber nur sehr wenige Befragte der Meinung, daß die Preisauszeichnung an der Ware gesetzlich vorgeschrieben werden sollte. Die Einstellung zur Technologie hängt von demografischen Eigenschaften ab. Negative Einstellungen finden sich vor allem bei älteren, arbeitslosen und einkommensschwachen Befragten.Die Studie zeigt also, daß Konsumenten die technologische Entwicklung insgesamt auch dann positiv einschätzen, wenn sie mit einzelnen Ergebnissen dieser Entwicklung unzufrieden sind. Unzufriedenheit mit einzelnen Ergebnissen führt nicht notwendigerweise zu der Meinung, der Status quo müsse mit gesetzlichen Mitteln erhalten bleiben.

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Frederick W. Langrehr is a Visiting Associate Professor, Institute of Business Management, and Virginia B. Langrehr is an Associate Professor, School of Family, Home and Social Sciences, both at Brigham Young University, Provo, Utah 84602, USA.     

Afterword on the Five-Year Outlook: Problems and promises

The editors offer a synthesis that reflects the motivations and concerns that underlie this volume and present “some reasonably tempered hopes and future prospects”. Among the former, they discuss “political/ institutional issues” impinging on the Outlook—its purpose, production, users, and feedback—as well as “technical/intellectual” ones. Among the latter, they note that for Outlook reports beyond the second, current signals are that the science policy community will be involved more substantially, and that contributions in general will be decentralized. They foresee the Outlook evolving into a forum for discussion and advocacy of future science-technology priorities.     

Determinants of cross-country consumption differences other than the real income difference

The variance of the equivalent income changes measures the degree to which real income fails to account for observed consumption changes. Such variances are applied and discussed in a cross-country context, together with their substitution and residual components, for data on 15 countries.     

Last Call: decreasing drunk driving among 21-34-year-old bar patrons

Any effort to decrease the toll of drunk driving must include efforts directed at people who drink in bars, particularly young adults who use motor vehicles after drinking. We designed a multifaceted social marketing campaign, Last Call, to increase the use of designated drivers and safe rides homes among 21-34-year olds. There were three components to the intervention: (1) use of taxi stands to promote taxi use; (2) point-of-sale information to patrons at partner bars and (3) a mass media campaign to support the designated driver/safe ride home message. Among the heaviest drinkers, the programme significantly increased the use of designated drivers and increased the use of taxis by 63%.     

Newer cardiac imaging techniques: multidetector CT angiography

An update of new developments with multidetector computed tomography (MDCT) coronary angiography is presented. Similar to what has occurred with the introduction of other new technologies such as electron beam computed tomography (EBCT), life insurance medical directors are expected to evaluate a technology before there are sufficient data from large clinical trials. Well-performed studies of the performance of MDCT coronary angiography have only recently appeared. MDCT appears to perform well for excluding significant coronary disease, and will perhaps be useful in emergency room "rule-out" situations. Other applications may be for the diagnosis of significant coronary obstruction (> 75% stenosis), as well as for the evaluation of bypass grafts. Limitations include the requirement for radiologic contrast administration and significant radiation exposure. MDCT does not provide information on atheroma morphology. Given these limitations, MDCT coronary angiography utilization will grow, and it will prove to be a useful tool in specific situations.     

Securitization and regulatory arbitrage within the ABCT framework

This paper discusses the consequences of securitization and how it links to the Austrian Business Cycle Theory (ABCT). The argument that securitization is behind fiduciary credit expansion preceding the 2008 crisis is incomplete. Consolidated balance sheet analysis demonstrates that securitization per se actually sterilizes the inflationary effect of previous fiduciary credits by transforming them into credits backed by voluntary savings. This sterilization stage is subsequently followed by new fiduciary credits issuance as securitization creates excess reserves and excess capital for banks. However, when securitization is used as a tool to implement arbitrage strategies of the Basel prudential rules, it enables banks to create more fiduciary credit while time preference remains unchanged. This creates the conditions for business cycle amplification.     

Corporate governance structure and product market competition

This article assesses the effects of the competitive structure of a product market on a firm’s corporate governance structure. Our model demonstrates that shareholders strategically determine the corporate governance structure, including the manager’s stock ownership and his controlling power over the firm, in order to maximize their utility in the product market competition. We find that the manager’s stock ownership is lower and his controlling power over the firm is higher when the firm’s product is more profitable or when competition within the product market is more severe. The inefficiency of the wealth transfer from shareholders to the manager also affects the corporate governance structure.