MARKET REFORM AND FOREIGN DIRECT INVESTMENT IN LATIN AMERICA: Evidence from an Error Correction Model

This study models dollar values of foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows to conditions in seven Latin American countries (Argentina, Brazil, Chile, Colombia, Mexico, Peru, and Venezuela) during the 1988-1992 period. Although much research on FDI has used time series data to explain inward or outward flows, two things set this study apart. First, this study includes market reforms as independent variables. Second, this study uses newer time series econometric tools (unit root test and cointegration analysis) to correct for a spurious regression. Our model is robust, explaining 79.4 percent of variation. We found three independent variables (size of current account deficit, size of GDP, and value of privatization less FDI in privatized companies) to be significant. Although we found directional support for three other independent variables (degree of capital market liberalization, low inflation rate, and depreciation of the real exchange rate), none of these proved significant.     

A Credible Path for Ending Too Big to Fail

The high degree of concentration in the U.S. financial system has been intensified in the wake of the 2007–09 financial crisis. Implicit government support of banks that are deemed “too big to fail” has resulted in excessive risk taking and a focus on short-term rewards rather than long-term performance. This paper proposes a three-step plan to limit the federal safety net to commercial depository institutions and to restructure institutions so that no one institution poses systemic risk in the event of failure and that the largest banks face the same kind of risks of closure and market risk as the smallest.     

Tracking a changing copula

A copula models the relationships between variables independently of their marginal distributions. When the variables are time series, the copula may change over time. Recursive procedures based on indicator variables are proposed for tracking these changes over time. Estimation of the unknown parameters is by maximum likelihood. When the marginal distributions change, pre-filtering is necessary before constructing the indicator variables on which the recursions are based. This entails estimating time-varying quantiles and a simple method based on time-varying histograms is proposed. The techniques are applied to the Hong Kong and Korean stock market indices. Some interesting and unexpected movements are detected, particularly after the attack on the Hong Kong dollar in 1997.     

Technological experience and the technology adoption decisions in small manufacturing firms

This paper investigates changes in factors bearing on technology adoption decisions in small manufacturing firms. It is hypothesized that, as a firm's experience with technology increases and its technological capabilities grow, the decision process is gradually modified and puts more weight on those factors which are more closely related to the true potential of the technology. An empirical study shows the more innovative firms to have an outward orientation dominated by clients and suppliers, and to pay more attention to the added flexibility brought about by new technology. It is also shown that functional groups within the company play a more important role in the decision-making process.     

The Risk Exposure of Emerging Equity Markets

The low correlation between returns in emerging equity marketsand industrial equity markets implies that the global investorwould benefit from diversification in emerging markets. Thisarticle explores the sensitivity of the emerging-market returnsto measures of global economic risk. When these traditionalmeasures of risk are used, the emerging markets have littleor no sensitivity. This finding is consistent with these markets'being segmented from world capital markets. However, the correlationbetween the emerging-market returns and the risk factors appearsto be changing over time.     

The EU Budget and the CAP: An Agenda for the Review?

The promised review of the EU Budget in 2008 offers an opportunity to bring CAP financing into line with logic, justice and the rest of EU policy. Currently, the CAP is unique amongst European policies in being both mandatory and requiring 100 per cent financing by the EU budget. While this made good sense at the policy's inception, it is now an obsolete anachronism. A sensible and defensible agenda for financial reform, which is all that is on the reform agenda at present, is to make the EU budget responsible for only a fraction (say 25 per cent) of the costs of the current CAP, instead of the present 100 per cent. This would bring CAP financing into line with other EU policies, and make member states separately responsible for the balance for their own farmers, as they so wish, up to the CAP budgetary ceiling already agreed. Any resulting competition between member states in the extent and means by which they continue (or not) to support farmers through direct payments would be controlled through EU Competition and single market policies. Such competition would also provide a good opportunity for experiments with policy development, to the advantage of all, since different policies are required for the different stages of development and different local conditions now evident within the EU.     

Smuggling and Bhagwati's Nonequivalence Between Tariffs and Quotas

The authors extend Professor Bhagwati's analysis about the nonequivalence between trade policy instruments when domestic production is monopolized and the terms of trade are endogenous, by allowing for smuggling. They show that the dominance of the ad valorem tariff over the quota is not robust. Tariffication can lower welfare even when the level of illegal imports is quite small. However, tariffication with a specific tariff is always beneficial because the specific tariff dominates the ad valorem tariff and the quota with or without smuggling. Smuggling (or the threat) also tends to lower the second–best tariff/quota, and increases welfare when imports are restricted by a quota, but lowers it under a tariff.