A GENERAL PROOF OF THE DYBVIG-INGERSOLL-ROSS THEOREM: LONG FORWARD RATES CAN NEVER FALL

A senera1 proof of the Dybvig-Ingersoll-Ross Theorem o n thc monotonicity of long foraard rates is presented. Some inconsistencies in the original proof o f this theorein are discussed.     

The effects of transition and political instability on foreign direct investment inflows

This paper examines the effects of transition and of political instability on foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to the transition economies of Central Europe, the Baltics and the Balkans. We find that FDI flows to transition economies unaffected by conflict and political instability exceed those that would be expected for comparable West European countries. Success with stabilization and reform increased the volume of FDI inflows. In the case of Balkan counties, conflict and instability reduced FDI inflows below what one would expect for comparable West European countries, and reform and stabilization failures further reduced FDI to the region. Thus, we find that the economic costs of instability in the Balkans in terms of foregone FDI have been quite high.     

Debt reduction: the basis and shape of a new strategy

The burden of past restructuring of the external debt of developing countries has been distributed asymmetrically among creditors owing to the lack of incentives for voluntary debt reduction. “New creditors” have been deterred from lending voluntarily because their claims would inevitably be added to a mountain of bad debt. Therefore new ways of reducing debt and debt servicing must be found. Our authors suggest a process of concerted debt reduction designed to ensure that all the creditor banks involved play an equal part.     

Analysis of the effect of risk management practices on the performance of new product development programs

Risk management is receiving much attention, as it is seen as a method to improve cost, schedule, and technical performance of new product development programs. However, there is a lack of empirical research that investigates the effective integration of specific risk management practices proposed by various standards with new product development programs and their association with various dimensions of risk management success. Based on a survey of 291 product development programs, this paper investigates the association of risk management practices with five categories of product development program performance: (A) Quality Decision Making; (B) High Program Stability; (C) Open, problem solving organization; (D) Overall new product development project success; and (E) overall product success. The results show that six categories of risk management practices are most effective: (1) Develop risk management skills and resources; (2) Tailor risk management to and integrate it with new product development; (3) Quantify impacts of risks on your main objectives; (4) Support all critical decisions with risk management results; (5) Monitor and review your risks, risk mitigation actions, and risk management process; and (6) Create transparency regarding new product development risks. The data shows that the risk management practices are directly associated with outcome measures in the first three categories (improved decision making, program stability and problem solving). There is also evidence that the risk management practices indirectly associate with the remaining two categories of outcome measures (project and product success). Additional research is needed to describe the exact mechanisms through which risk management practices influence NPD program success.