Cointegration and spatial price transmission among wheat and wheat-flour markets in Afghanistan

This article examines cointegration and spatial price transmission among Afghan wheat and flour markets as well as their linkages with those of supplier countries and global markets. Unit root tests, consistent momentum threshold autoregressive (M-TAR) models and vector error correction models (asymmetric and symmetric) are employed to achieve research objectives. The results suggest that provincial wheat and flour markets may have a long-run relationship with principal market of Kabul. Afghan wheat and flour markets may also be cointegrated with their respective global, Kazakh and Pakistani markets. While provincial wheat markets might adjust to divergence from their long-run equilibrium with Kabul wheat market, some of the provincial flour markets may not respond to deviation from their long-run equilibrium with Kabul flour market. The speed of adjustment towards the long-run Afghan–Pakistani and Afghan–Kazakh equilibrium may be faster for Afghan flour than wheat markets. The equilibrium adjustment coefficients are generally small and market imperfections may exist, however. A shock in Kabul wheat and flour markets may have long-lasting effect on the respective provincial markets whereas a shock in global wheat and Pakistani, and Kazakh wheat and flour markets might have transitory effect on the corresponding Afghan markets.     

Structural and competitive determinants of globally oriented small- and medium-sized enterprises: An empirical analysis

This paper examines the factors influencing the internationalization of the activities of small- and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) as an entrepreneurial response to the opportunities and threats posed by the increasing globalization of the economic system. Findings from agricultural equipment manufacturers indicate that size, international experience, innovation, and distinctiveness have a direct influence on the degree in internationalization by SMEs. Scanning, learning, and networking have some influence on the extent of internationalization of SME activities but only indirectly through other variables. Competition intensity and uncertainty also have an indirect impact on internationalization, but standardization does not. Relative importance of each determinant is ascertained and the impact of SME internationalization activities on performance is assessed.     

Intergenerational Transfers and Asset Inequality in Japan: Empirical Evidence from New Survey Data

This paper quantitatively examines the impact of intergenerational transfers on asset inequality among Japanese households. We estimate an intergenerational asset transfer function with various control variables, using a unique micro dataset taken from a survey conducted by the Economic and Social Research Institute, Cabinet Office. Employing three different models, a Tobit model, an interval regression model and an ordered probit model, to ensure that our results are independent of the specific econometric approach used, we investigate whether asset transfers received are correlated with households’ financial strength. We find that higher income households are likely to receive larger asset transfers. However, the contribution of intergenerational transfers to asset inequality appears to be small.     

Disequilibrium dynamics with monetarist price expectations

In this note we sketch the main features of the dynamic evolution of a rationed equilibrium macroeconomic model in which prices and wages respond to excess demands and inflation expectations, and the money stock is endogenous. We postulate monetarist inflation expectations, i.e., expected inflation is assumed to be equal to the current percentage rate of change of the money stock. If the system is stable, monetarist inflation expectations are asymptotically rational.     

High‐Frequency Contagion of Currency Crises in Asia*

Using daily data from the Asian currency crisis, the present paper examines high‐frequency contagion effects among six Asian countries. The ‘origin’ (of exchange rate depreciation, or decline in stock prices) and the ‘affected’ (currencies, or stock prices) in the daily spillover relationship were defined and identified. Indonesia is found to be the main origin country, affecting exchange rates of other countries. Contrary to conventional wisdom, evidence of high‐frequency crisis spillover from the Thai exchange rate to other currencies was weak at best. There exists a high‐frequency contagion in stock markets among East Asian countries. Contagion coefficients are positively correlated with trade indices, indicating that investors lower their financial assessment of a country that has trade linkage to a crisis origin country within days, if not hours, of a shock.     

Offshore Outsourcing and Non‐production Workers: Firm‐level Relationships Disaggregated by Skills and Suppliers

In analysing the impact of offshoring on the skill composition, previous empirical studies have established that offshoring firms employ more non‐production workers. However, not all non‐production workers are highly skilled. This paper disaggregates non‐production workers into the following three categories: (i) skilled non‐production workers, (ii) unskilled non‐production workers and (iii) non‐production workers with special skills for offshoring and other overseas business management. By linking our offshoring survey data with firm‐level data for Japanese manufacturing firms, this paper finds that the share of skilled non‐production workers tends to be significantly high in offshoring firms but that of unskilled non‐production workers is not. As offshoring has expanded from production to non‐production tasks, this result implies that the distinction between skilled versus unskilled workers becomes critical among non‐production workers. Using our unique data on supplier types in offshoring, this paper finds that the share of non‐production workers for the management of overseas activities tends to be high in foreign direct investment firms and in firms outsourcing to foreign independent suppliers, but not in Japanese firms outsourcing to offshore suppliers located abroad but owned by other Japanese firms. This difference indicates that coordination burdens are likely to be at least partly mitigated by common languages or shared business practices. These findings suggest that offshoring has different impacts on employment depending on suppliers and the worker’s skill. The principal results are confirmed robust even after various firm characteristics are controlled for in panel regressions, though we should not give any causal interpretations.     

Trilemma policy convergence patterns and output volatility

We examine the development of open macroeconomic policy choices among developing economies from the perspective of the powerful “trilemma” hypothesis. We construct an index of divergence of the three trilemma policy choices, and evaluate its patterns in recent decades. We find that the three dimensions of the trilemma configurations are converging toward a “middle ground” among emerging market economies, equipped with managed exchange rate flexibility, underpinned by sizable holdings of international reserves, and intermediate levels of monetary independence and financial integration. We also find emerging market economies with more converged policy choices tend to experience smaller output volatility in the last two decades. Emerging markets with relatively low international reserves/GDP could experience higher levels of output volatility when they choose a policy combination with a greater degree of policy divergence while this heightened output volatility effect does not apply to economies with relatively high international reserves/GDP holding.