刺激性货币政策的退出策略

【摩根士丹利5月21日】3月初以来,风险资产价格强劲反弹。至今为止,标准普尔指数的升幅已接近35％,信用利差大幅收缩。我们认为,金融市场回暖的一个重要动力就在于,央行通过降息和量化宽松注入金融体系的过剩流动性。由于货币供应量增加、资产价格回升,央行的举措还减缓了全球经济的下滑速度。     

The Impact and Targeting of Social Infrastructure Investments: Lessons from the Nicaraguan Social Fund

The benefit incidence and impact of projects financed by theNicaraguan Emergency Social Investment Fund are investigatedusing a sample of beneficiaries, a national household survey,and two distinct comparison groups. The first group is constructedon the basis of geographic proximity between similar facilitiesand their corresponding communities; the second is drawn fromthe national Living Standards Measurement Study survey sampleusing propensity score matching techniques. The analysis findsthat the social fund investments in latrines, schools, and healthposts are targeted to poor communities and households, whereasthose in sewerage are targeted to the better-off. Investmentsin water systems are poverty-neutral. Education investmentshave a positive, significant impact on school outcomes regardlessof the comparison group used. The results of health investmentsare less clear. Using one comparison group, the analysis findsthat use of health clinics increased as a result of the investments;using both, it finds higher use of clinics for children underage six with diarrhea. With neither comparison group does itfind improvements in health outcomes. Social fund investmentsin water and sanitation improve access to services but haveno effect on health outcomes.     

A Quantitative Assessment of the Finance–Growth–Innovation Nexus in EEA Countries: Evidence from a Multivariate VECM

This paper uses country-level data of European Economic Area countries between 1989 and 2016 to examine the interactions between economic growth, innovation, and financial market activities, with specific reference to the bond and insurance markets. Our intent is to know whether causality runs among these variables both ways, or not at all. Using a vector error correction model, the study finds that financial market activities and economic growth determine innovation activities in these countries. Additionally, the study also finds bidirectional Granger causality between financial market activities and economic growth, as well as between innovation activities and economic growth.     

Environment-Friendly Behaviour and Competitiveness: A Study of Pulp and Paper Industry in India

This paper seeks to examine the relationship between competitiveness and environment-friendly behaviour of producers under an economic liberalisation regime. For that purpose, it employs a probit model and estimates the influence of the prime movers of industrial growth such as technical change and economies of scale on environmental degradation. The empirical results of the study of pulp and paper industry, identified as one of the most polluting industries in India, indicate that these variables, as the key players of competitiveness improvement, have positive influence on environment-friendly behaviour. Such findings, therefore, fail to provide support to a view that articulates ruthless exploitation of the environment under economic liberalisation programme.     

Child Labour Use and Economic Growth: An Econometric Analysis

We present a simple dynamic theory of child labour, human capital formation, and economic growth that is consistent with some of the main features of child labour and economic development. The model supports a number of testable hypotheses, which we investigate econometrically in a systems approach. Using panel data from 64 countries in the period 1960–1980, the econometric results match the theory well. The incidence of child labour is negatively related to parental human capital and education quality, but is positively correlated with education cost. Further, countries with higher amounts of child labour tend to have lower stocks of human capital in the future. There is also a convergence phenomenon between the level and growth of human capital. The lower the current stock of human capital, the higher is current child‐labour use and the faster is the growth rate of human capital.     

Inspiring employees' ecological behaviors: The roles of corporate environmental strategy,biospheric values,and eco-centric leadership

The consequences of environmental degradation have steered organizations to promote pro-ecological behaviors among their employees, and achieving this effectively is paramount for business and environmental sustainability. Applying a multilevel integrated approach, this study investigates the impact of corporate environmental strategy, biospheric values, and eco-centric leadership on employees' ecological behaviors. A self-administered questionnaire was used to collect data from 289 employees from a cross section of industries in Bangladesh. The findings reveal the significant influences of environmental strategy and biospheric values on employees' ecological behaviors as well as the moderating role of eco-centric leadership. The study also provides some significant insights for formulating environmental strategy and inspiring employees' ecological behaviors in organizational contexts. Theoretical and managerial implications as well as future research directions have also been provided.     

I (do not) consume; therefore,I am: Investigating materialism and voluntary simplicity through a moderated mediation model

With the burgeoning of consumer culture and materialism on a global scale, a counter-culture movement, namely, voluntary simplicity, is slowly gaining currency. Extant research reveals a degree of disparateness in the relationship between materialism and voluntary simplicity. Drawing on the value-basis theory and anti-consumption research, the current study attempts at an unorthodox study of the fledgling culture of anti-consumption in urban India. The paper empirically examines the relationship between materialism and voluntary simplicity in India. This research, through an experimental study followed by a sample survey, conducted among urban Indian consumers, examines how satisfaction with life, self-efficacy, and individualism interact with materialistic values to eventually influence voluntary simplicity attitudes. In Study 1 (N = 74 working professionals), we experimentally triggered materialistic aspirations and evaluated their effects on voluntary simplicity in comparison to a control condition. In Study 2 (N = 315), individuals self-rated their materialistic values, satisfaction with life, self-efficacy, cultural orientation, and voluntary simplicity attitude. Our study, contrary to the suggestions in the existing literature, demonstrates that materialists espouse voluntary simplicity attitudes when environmental degradation around them directly impacts their health, wealth, and well-being. In addition to the positive direct effect, satisfaction with life and self-efficacy serially mediate the relationship between materialism and voluntary simplicity, providing a welcome divergence from dark-sided conceptualizations of materialism. Our results help global marketers, and public policymakers better understand the interaction between materialistic values and sustainable consumption attitudes, in the developing country perspective.     

Sustainable economic growth in the European Union: The role of ICT,venture capital,and innovation

Over the past 30 years, the economies in Europe have undergone major transformations that have been powered by diffusion of information and communication technology (ICT), intensification of innovation, and reforms in the financial sector to support innovative endeavors. The primary objective of this study was to examine the causal relationships among ICT diffusion, innovation diffusion, venture capital investment, and economic growth for 25 countries in Europe for the period from 1989 to 2016. Using a vector error‐correction model, the study examines the underlying short‐run and long‐run relationships for the above variables. The empirical analysis shows that in the long run, venture capital investment, ICT diffusion, and innovation diffusion have significant impacts on economic growth in Europe. However, in the short run, the direction of the causality varies depending on the specific measures of ICT diffusion and innovation diffusion that are utilized. Results from this study provide valuable insights into the types of policies that will contribute to sustainable economic growth in Europe.     

Entry,growth, and survival: The new learning on firm selection and industry evolution

This paper tries to shed some light on the seeming paradox posed by the findings in the industrial organization literature that (1) the bulk of firms in an industry are not only very small, but also sufficiently small so that they are operating at a sub-optimal scale of output, and (2) entrepreneurs are apparently not deterred from starting new firms even in industries where scale economies play an important role. A dynamic view of the process of firm selection and industry evolution is that new firms typically start at a very smal scale of output. Because this level of output may be sub-optimal, the firm must grow in order to survive. The empirical evidence supports such a dynamic view of the evolutionary nature of industries. Viewed through a dynamic lens, the often-observed asymmetric size distribution of firms becomes more understandable. The persistence of an asymmetric firm-size distribution skewed towards small enterprises presumably reflects a continuing process of entry into industries and not necessarily the survival of such small and suboptimal enterprises over a long period of time.     

Flexible Labour,Firm Performance and the Dutch Job Creation Miracle

Unlike internal (‘functional’) forms of flexibility of labour, external (‘numerical’) forms of flexibility (i.e. high shares of people on temporary contract or a high turnover of personnel) yield substantial savings on a firm’s wage bill. Savings on wage bills lead to higher job growth, but do not translate into higher sales growth. Externally flexible labour appears to be related to lower labour productivity growth, the effects being different for innovating vs non‐innovating firms. We discuss these findings from firm‐level and worker‐level data against the background of the Dutch job creation miracle during the 1980s and 1990s. Modest wage increases and flexibilization of labour markets may indeed create lots of jobs. However, this is likely to happen at the expense of labour productivity growth, raising serious doubts about the long‐run sustainability of a low‐productivity–high‐employment growth path.