A fuzzy-based roadmapping model for enhancing high-tech small firms’ technological entrepreneurship capabilities: cases of Iran

ABSTRACT

Technology-based firms need to survive via technological changes. Technological entrepreneurship is concentrated on identifying and exploiting the tech-opportunities for creating product innovation. This paper introduces a fuzzy-based tool to promote innovation throughout firms in order to enhance technological entrepreneurship capabilities (TEC). The effort involves identifying components of TEC to develop the inference system, specifying the fuzzy relationship among these components, assessing the TEC in firms, and designing a TEC roadmap after a fuzzy-based gap analysis. Designed roadmaps introduce technological change priorities as a growth path to firms to move up along the ladder of competitiveness. Based on the results, a method for categorizing firms into four distinct levels that involve passive, reactive, proactive and innovative is introduced. Hence, firms have an action plan to enhance TEC from passive to innovative level in a time-based transition pathway.     

Empirics of currency crises: A duration analysis approach

This paper empirically analyzes the origins of currency crises for a group of OECD economies from 1970 through 1998. We apply duration analysis to examine how the probability of a currency crisis depends on the length of non‐crisis periods, contagion channels, and macroeconomic fundamentals. Our findings confirm the negative duration dependence of a currency crisis—the likelihood of speculative attack sharply increases at the beginning of non‐crisis periods and then declines over time until it abruptly rises again. The results also indicate the hazard of a crisis increase with high values of the volatility of unemployment rates, inflation rates, contagion factors—which mostly work through trade channels, unemployment rates, real effective exchange rate, trade openness, and size of economy. To address concerns regarding validity of the identified crisis episodes, we exploit crisis episodes that are identified by a more objective approach based on the extreme value theory. Our results are robust under various specifications including two different crisis event sets that are identified on monthly and quarterly basis.     

How does the flow of remittances affect the trade balance of the Middle East and North Africa?

ABSTRACT

The Middle Eastern and North African (MENA) economies have one of the highest degrees of dependency on received remittances worldwide. In this study, we have examined the role of remittances in the trade balance of 11 labour abundant MENA countries. Our panel regression analysis showed that the inflow of remittances has fostered the trade deficit. We also found that the final effect of remittances depends on the level of domestic capital formation. The results are robust after controlling for other drivers of trade deficit such as income, inflation, exchange rate and institutions as well as country and year fixed effects.     

Hedging performance of multiscale hedge ratios

In this study, the wavelet multiscale model is applied to selected assets to hedge time-dependent exposure of an agent with a preference for a certain hedging horizon. Based on the in-sample and out-of-sample portfolio variances, the wavelet-based generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity (GARCH) model produces the lowest variances. From a utility standpoint, wavelet networks combined with GARCH have the highest utility. Finally, the wavelet-GARCH model has the lowest minimum capital risk requirements. Overall, the wavelet GARCH and wavelet networks offer improvements over traditional hedging models.     

Fatality rate of pedestrians and fatal crash involvement rate of drivers in pedestrian crashes: a case study of Iran

The aim of this study was to uncover patterns of pedestrian crashes. In the first stage, 34,178 pedestrian-involved crashes occurred in Iran during a four-year period were grouped into homogeneous clusters using a clustering analysis. Next, some in-cluster and inter-cluster crash patterns were analysed. The clustering analysis yielded six pedestrian crash groups. Car/van/pickup crashes on rural roads as well as heavy vehicle crashes were found to be less frequent but more likely to be fatal compared to other crash clusters. In addition, after controlling for crash frequency in each cluster, it was found that the fatality rate of each pedestrian age group as well as the fatal crash involvement rate of each driver age group varies across the six clusters. Results of present study has some policy implications including, promoting pedestrian safety training sessions for heavy vehicle drivers, imposing limitations over elderly heavy vehicle drivers, reinforcing penalties toward under 19 drivers and motorcyclists. In addition, road safety campaigns in rural areas may be promoted to inform people about the higher fatality rate of pedestrians on rural roads. The crash patterns uncovered in this study might also be useful for prioritizing future pedestrian safety research areas.     

Decisive factors in medical tourism destination choice: A case study of Isfahan,Iran and fertility treatments

The birth of the first in vitro fertilized baby, followed by further advances in the field of assisted reproductive technology (ART) has made this technology one of the most attractive tourism innovations among the different categories of medical tourism. In addition, factors such as legal, moral, religious and ethical issues play important roles in choosing reproductive tourism destinations. The aim of this study was to examine the factors influencing destination choice in infertile couples who referred to the Isfahan Fertility and Infertility Center in Isfahan, Iran. Field evaluation was carried out based on a documentary survey and questionnaire completed by interviewers. Among a target group of 80 infertile couples, 67 were interviewed. The majority of participants in this study were Muslim couples who traveled for reproductive tourism to Iran. It can be concluded that religious affinity may have paramount importance in reproductive medical tourism for Muslim infertile couples.     

ARE THE STRUCTURAL CHANGES IN MUTUAL FUNDS INVESTING DRIVING THE U.S. STOCK MARKET TO ITS CURRENT LEVELS?

We examine the long-run equilibrium relation between the net flow of funds into equity mutual funds and the S&P 500 index. Applying the Engle and Granger error correction methodology followed by a state space procedure, we find that the levels of the stock market are influenced by the net flow of funds into equity mutual funds. Our findings indicate that the U.S. equity market appears to be rationally adjusting to a structural change in the behavior of the U.S. investing public.