The Performance of a Project Life Cycle Methodology in Practice

In a deliberate attempt to shift the analytical focus away from critical examination of the underlying ideological assumptions of project management standards, this study focuses on the performativity of a specific project life cycle methodology. Through a case study, the article analyzes the effects and usages of the methodology in practice. This article proposes to think of project methodologies as fluid objects, creating shifting and adaptable relationships between methodology and practice.     

Measuring customer profitability in complex environments: an interdisciplinary contingency framework

Customer profitability measurement is an important element in customer relationship management and a lever for enhanced marketing accountability. Two distinct measurement approaches have emerged in the marketing literature: Customer Lifetime Value (CLV) and Customer Profitability Analysis (CPA). Myriad models have been demonstrated within these two approaches across industries. However, limited efforts have been made to explain when sophisticated CLV or CPA models will be most useful. This paper explores the advantages and limitations of sophisticated CLV and CPA models and proposes that the degree of sophistication deployed when implementing customer profitability measurement models is determined by the type of complexity encountered in firms’ customer environments. This gives rise to a contingency framework for customer profitability measurement model selection and five research propositions. Additionally, the framework provides design and implementation guidance for managers seeking to implement customer profitability measurement models for resource allocation purposes.     

Sensemaking in business networks: Introducing dottograms to analyse network changes

The issue of how different actors in a network understand changes to their industry remains an under-researched but crucially important area. According to the industrial network approach, companies interact according to their perceptions of the relevant network environment and their subjective sensemaking of the network logic and exchange mechanisms relating to the activities, resources, and actor bonds. Using a case study of the Norwegian/Japanese seafood distribution system, we propose a methodology that allows us to better understand these perceptions. We develop an analytical method based on ‘dottograms’ which facilitates a more detailed understanding of change within networks. In particular, we show how the dimensions of time (past, present and future changes) and space (change at actor, dyad or network level) can be better understood, and also how the method facilitates our understanding by ascribing reasons for the change. As such, we provide a methodological contribution to research on business networks and change.     

Utilitarianism and risk

Abstract

In day-to-day life, we are continuously exposed to different kinds of risk. Unfortunately, avoiding risk can often come at societal or individual costs. Hence, an important task within risk management is deciding how much it can be justified to expose members of society to risk x in order to avoid societal and individual costs y – and vice versa. We can refer to this as the task of setting an acceptable risk threshold. Judging whether a risk threshold is justified requires normative reasoning about what levels of risk exposure that are permissible. One such prominent normative theory is utilitarianism. According to utilitarians, the preferred risk threshold is the one that yields more utility for the most people compared to alternative risk thresholds. In this paper, I investigate whether and the extent to which utilitarian theory can be used to normatively ground a particular risk threshold in this way. In particular, I argue that there are (at least) seven different utilitarian approaches to setting an acceptable risk threshold. I discuss each of these approaches in turn and argue that neither can satisfactorily ground an acceptable risk threshold.     

The red queen in organizational evolution

We propose that competitive success and failure evolve through an ecology of organizational learning. An organization facing competition is likely to engage in a search for ways to improve performance. When successful, this search results in learning that is likely to increase the organization's competitive strength, which in turn triggers learning in its rivals—consequently making them stronger competitors and so again triggering learning in the first organization. We elaborate the conditions under which this self-reinforcing process, known in evolutionary theory as the ‘Red Queen,’ is likely to be adaptive or maladaptive. Adaptive consequences are predicted only for recently experienced learning. Experience in the more distant past of an organization's life, by contrast, is predicted to backfire into a ‘competency trap.’ We predict maladaptive consequences when organizations face many, varied cohorts of rivals. We empirically distinguish these effects using ecological models of competition. Estimates of organizational failure rales reveal a Red Queen among Illinois banks, and support our predictions.     

The role of implied volatility in forecasting future realized volatility and jumps in foreign exchange,stock, and bond markets

We study the forecasting of future realized volatility in the foreign exchange, stock, and bond markets from variables in our information set, including implied volatility backed out from option prices. Realized volatility is separated into its continuous and jump components, and the heterogeneous autoregressive (HAR) model is applied with implied volatility as an additional forecasting variable. A vector HAR (VecHAR) model for the resulting simultaneous system is introduced, controlling for possible endogeneity issues. We find that implied volatility contains incremental information about future volatility in all three markets, relative to past continuous and jump components, and it is an unbiased forecast in the foreign exchange and stock markets. Out-of-sample forecasting experiments confirm that implied volatility is important in forecasting future realized volatility components in all three markets. Perhaps surprisingly, the jump component is, to some extent, predictable, and options appear calibrated to incorporate information about future jumps in all three markets.     

Markov switching causality and the money–output relationship

The causal link between monetary variables and output is one of the most studied issues in macroeconomics. One puzzle from this literature is that the results of causality tests appear to be sensitive with respect to the sample period that one considers. As a way of overcoming this difficulty, we propose a method for analysing Granger causality which is based on a vector autoregressive model with time‐varying parameters. We model parameter time‐variation so as to reflect changes in Granger causality, and assume that these changes are stochastic and governed by an unobservable Markov chain. When applied to US data, our methodology allows us to reconcile previous puzzling differences in the outcome of conventional tests for money–output causality. Copyright © 2005 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impact of mood on personality measures

This article reports an experiment conducted to estimate whether and how subjects' mood states would influence their scores on three personality measurement scales. The three scales were Larsen's (1984) Affect Intensity Measure, Scheier & Carver's (1985) Life Orientation Test, and Leary et al.'s (1986) Objectivism Scale (the third scale was included only for control purposes). Four experimental groups were exposed to a very negative, mildly negative, neutral or positive mood-inducing film. Significant differences in scores between groups were found for the first two scales. This indicates that the scales are unstable measurement instruments in the presence of mood variations, and the appropriateness of employing these measurement scales in mood studies can thus be questioned.