The adoption and adaptation of externally originated ideas

This paper presents a vintage-capital model of technology adoption that takes seriously the fact that new inventions are specific to the environment in which they emerge. The key feature of the model is that the firm can invest resources in R&D to adapt externally originated ideas to the environment in which they are used. We show that because of the possibility of investing in R&D, differences between the inventor's and user's environments can explain why some firms invest in old techniques. Several predictions of the model are consistent with observation.     

Green shoots and double dips in the euro area: A real time measure

In order to perform real-time business cycle inferences and forecasts of GDP growth rates in the euro area, we use an extension of the Markov-switching dynamic factor models that accounts for the features of the day-to-day monitoring of economic developments, such as ragged edges, mixed frequencies and data revisions. We provide examples that show the nonlinear nature of the relationships between data revisions, point forecasts and forecast uncertainty. Based on our empirical results, we think that the real-time probabilities of recession inferred from the model are an appropriate statistic for capturing what the press call green shoots, and for monitoring double-dip recessions.     

Federal tax policies,congressional voting and natural resources

Can abundance of natural resources affect legislators' voting behaviour over federal tax policies? We construct a political economy model of a federalized economy with district heterogeneity in natural resource abundance. The model shows that representatives of natural resource‐rich districts are more (less) willing to vote in favour of federal tax increases (decreases). This occurs because resource‐rich districts are less responsive to federal tax changes due to the immobile nature of their natural resources. We test the model's predictions using data on roll‐call votes in the US House of Representatives over the major federal tax bills initiated during the period of 1945–2003, in conjunction with the presence of active giant oil fields in US congressional districts. Our identification strategy rests on plausibly exogenous giant oil field discoveries and exploitation and narrative‐based aggregate federal tax shocks that are exogenous to individual congressional districts and legislators. We find that: (i) resource‐rich congressional districts are less responsive to changes in federal taxes and (ii) representatives of resource‐rich congressional districts are more (less) supportive of federal tax increases (decreases), controlling for legislator, congressional district and state indicators. Our results indicate that resource richness is approximately half as dominant as the main determinant, namely party affiliation, in driving legislators' voting behaviour over federal tax policies.     

An <Emphasis Type="Italic">ex ante</Emphasis> forecast on economically engineered bit rates for IPTV service via xDSL transports of internodal access

Concerning broadband IPTV service (of 12/24 MHz bandwidth) on a digital subscriber line (xDSL), an algorithm (plus a numerical spreadsheet) that computes the required, economically engineered bit rates (EEBRs) of associated (aggregated) traffic is developed. The EEBR is decided by user (residential/business) behavior at a wire center and is essential for economic design/implementation/expansion of xDSL infrastructure. Using an available set of (ex post) data on xDSL growth of services (collected over a period of semiannual terms) at a wire center, an ex ante forecast on EEBR is elucidated. An EEBR-based economic utilization of resources and connection admission control is indicated.     

Food Protection for Sale*

This article tests the Protection for Sale (PFS) model using detailed data from US food‐processing industries under alternative import‐demand specifications. All empirical results support the PFS model predictions and previous empirical work qualitatively. However, a surprising result is that we obtain weights between 2.6 and 3.6 for domestic welfare using import slopes or elasticities derived from domestic demand and supply functions. In contrast, results based on directly specified import demands (including the Armington model) yield the usual, unrealistically large estimates for the domestic welfare weight. We contend that this empirical paradox arises mainly because the explanatory variables tend to be extremely large for industries with low import ratios and/or low import elasticities (or slopes) resulting from relatively volatile import prices. The results with derived import parameters point to a much stronger role of campaign contributions within the PFS model than previously found.     

How to Balance the Outcomes of the Economic Partnership Agreements for Sub‐Saharan African Economies?

Since 2002, the Sub‐Saharan African countries ( except South Africa which already has a free‐trade agreement with the EU ) have embarked on free‐trade agreement negotiations with the European Union. These arrangements will replace the Cotonou scheme, which requires these countries to eliminate their tariffs on ‘substantially’ all their European imports. Based on a general equilibrium analysis, this study estimates the potential effects of these agreements by considering different levels of reciprocity in the commitments of the Sub‐Saharan African countries. It shows that the ‘standard’ EU proposal, whereby Sub‐Saharan African countries would cut tariffs on 80 per cent of their European imports, would not be enough to balance the outcome of the Economic Partnership Agreements. As a result of the asymmetries between European and African protections and supply‐side capacities, African countries could experience a balance of trade deficit of USD 1.8 billion associated with a 0.1 per cent decrease in GDP. This proposal, which also induces an industrial restructuring to the benefit of the agro‐processing industries, will create a significant fiscal burden. A lesser level of commitment could largely mitigate these unfavourable results; by reciprocating tariff eliminations on only 60 per cent of their European imports, African countries would reduce the trade imbalance and fiscal losses induced by these agreements by 21 and 51 per cent respectively.     

Market structure and the impact of imports on price cost margins

This paper provides a conceptual analysis of the impact of imports on domestic price-cost margins via the interaction of economies of scale, conjectural variations, and demand elasticities. Positive or negative impacts can be theoretically justified based on the relative strength of these factors.