QUEST III: An estimated open-economy DSGE model of the euro area with fiscal and monetary policy

This paper develops a DSGE model for an open economy and estimates it on euro area data using Bayesian estimation techniques. The model features nominal and real frictions, as well as financial frictions in the form of liquidity-constrained households. The model incorporates active monetary and fiscal policy rules (for government consumption, investment, transfers and wage taxes) and can be used to analyse the effectiveness of stabilisation policies. To capture the unit root character of macroeconomic time series we allow for a stochastic trend in TFP, but instead of filtering data prior to estimation, we estimate the model in growth rates and stationary nominal ratios.     

经济复苏态势延续,长期预期仍待改善——2021年一季度经济运行分析及全年经济形势展望

本文结合2021年一季度数据,分析了当前经济运行状况及全年经济形势展望.认为2021年一季度经济复苏向好,但复苏不均衡特征明显.全年经济复苏态势延续,不确定性仍存.国际经济复苏预期改善,宏观金融风险犹存.主要的政策建议包括:财政政策应兼顾防风险与促循环;深化要素市场化改革,实质性地破除要素流动的体制机制障碍;加快金融改革,运用市场化方式完善金融服务民营企业的激励机制;政府主动推动市场创新,加快要素流动;加快收入分配制度改革,缩减贫富差距.     

制造业的发展趋势

尽管制造业管理的必然趋势已经清晰地从工厂优化发展到建立端到端的全球卓越供应链,但企业的盈利性依然是重要的发展驱动因素。值得庆幸的是人们已经确定了建立可盈利供应链背后的准则。如果已从事几十年的制造和配送工作,您也许听说过Eli Goldratt和他的约束理论,以及他的著作《目标》。这部小说讲述了虚构工厂经理Alex Rogo的故事。Alex所在的工厂效益并不理想,他试图在瓶颈管理上采取一些创新的技术手段,扭转工厂的困难局面。他发现,在工厂进行离散的局部优化并不能带来最佳的全局效果;相反,通过有效管理关键的生产约束,才能最大程度地提高制造吞吐量。     

外国企业技术转让营业税减免存在的问题及对策

从1999年起,国家针对外国企业技术转让陆续出台了一系列营业税优惠政策。本文从近几年的操作实际出发,详细阐述了目前外国企业对华技术转让的现状和主要形式,指出了减免营业税政策执行中存在的问题,并对如何改进和完善提出了建议。     

国际关系研究的定量数据库及其应用

国际关系研究者经常面对一些需要运用数据进行比较、检验或支持的问题。对于试图采用定量研究方法的研究者而言,如何获取和使用研究所需的数据是研究过程中面对的第一个难题。作者将国际关系定量数据库分为冲突数据、国际经济政治地理数据、组织数据和调查数据等几种主要类型,它们涵盖国际政治经济、冲突或冲突过程、国际组织、对外政策分析、民主化、族群政治、发展、环境研究、和平研究等大部分国际关系研究领域。在对这些数据库的主要用途、特征、使用方法以及最新相关研究成果进行介绍的基础上,作者认为,为了最大限度地利用已有数据,研究者需根据研究目的和问题选择最合适的数据,尽可能使用不同数据来进行假设检验,同时在分析使用数据时需要注意数据的测量层次问题。     

Performance implications of institutionalization process in family-owned businesses: Evidence from an emerging economy

This paper attempts to understand the role of two highly relevant founder family characteristics, harmony among family members and the degree of democratization in decision-making, in the institutionalization and adaptive capability development processes of family firms in Turkey as an exemplar of an emerging market. The paper examines how institutionalization and adaptability jointly drive firm-level differences in quantitative (i.e., sales growth, market share, and return on investment) and qualitative performance (i.e., quality of goods/services, new product development, employee satisfaction) components. Data were collected from 436 respondents in 132 family firms through structured questionnaires administered to at least three respondents from each firm. Findings indicated that among the institutionalization dimensions, transparency had the strongest effect on both quantitative and qualitative firm performance, whereas adaptability influenced qualitative performance only. Harmony in family relations increased efforts for institutionalization, whereas democracy in decision-making enhanced adaptability. Implications of these findings are discussed and several future research directions are suggested.     

中小企业信用评级产品的专业化生产和买断式消费:莱商模式

信息不对称是限制银行与中小企业开展正常信贷交易的关键因素,而传统信贷调查和银行内部信用评级均因存在各自的缺陷而无法有效突破信息不对称的约束。在此背景下,山东省莱芜市城市商业银行在当地人民银行的组织协调下,全盘买断并广泛运用专业信用评级公司的信用评级产品,以其显著的比较优势迅速拓展当地中小企业信贷市场,基本实现了中小企业信用评级市场的稳定、可持续发展。     

Queueing models for full-flexible multi-class call centers with real-time anticipated delays

In this paper, we consider two basic multi-class call center models, with and without reneging. Customer classes have different priorities. The content of different types of calls is assumed to be similar allowing their service times to be identical. We study the problem of announcing delays to customers upon their arrival. For the simplest model without reneging, we give a method to estimate virtual delays that is used within the announcement step. For the second model, we first build the call center model incorporating reneging. The model takes into account the change in customer behavior that may occur when delay information is communicated to them. In particular, it is assumed that customer reneging is replaced by balking that depends on the state of the system in this case. We develop a method based on Markov chains in order to estimate virtual delays of new arrivals for this model. Finally, some practical issues concerning delay announcement are discussed.     

推进贵州省农村信息化的思考与对策

实施农村信息化是解决三农问题的创新思考。欲推进贵州省农村信息化,应针对贵州省的实际情况进行统一规划,制定分类指导、分步实施的推进方案。从“第一公里”平台整合建设到“最后一公里”多渠道提供信息服务,从建立长效机制到人员队伍建设,对贵州农村信息化推进思路、实现路径进行深入研究和探索。