Structuring the future—application of a scenario-generation procedure

Scenario generation is a fundamental technique of futures research. By providing a series of possible future contexts, it is a valuable tool for decision makers. A number of scenario generation procedures have been proposed and may all be appropriate in particular circumstances. These procedures differ in regard to their approach to structure, the nature of the scenario elements used, their handling of the time dimension, their approach to scenario probabilities, the scope or size of the scenarios, and a few other aspects. A number of suggested techniques are classified in regard to these characteristics and a case is described for a procedure that provides for large numbers of events and trends (over 100) in a multiperiod framework and that can produce a fairly small number of the most likely scenarios that contain a reasonable variety. An approach to this problem is described, and an application in the Western Australian Government Railway organization, Westrail, is presented.     

Basic Evaluation of the Process of China’s Industrial Modernization

I. Introduction The oretically, industrial modernization may bedescribed asa process in which modernityof industry is constantly enhanced and the traditional elements are steadily reduced. Interms of industrialdevelopment, it can bedefined asa process in which, pulled by modernscience and technology, rising industrial sectors have constantly emerged and grown andoriginalindustrialsectorshave undergonesustained changes and development,thusleadingto changes in industrial structure and a rise in …     

Which Socio-economic Model for Europe?

Disappointing growth rates and high unemployment in Europe have given rise to a debate on whether the European socio-economic model—or which of its variations—has a future in the face of increasing international competition. The following two articles discuss the current challenges facing Europe in this field and the options for meeting these challenges.      

A non-homogeneous non-uniform influence model of innovation diffusion

A model of innovation diffusion which gives unequal weightage to the adopters of different temporal stages and captures commonly observed ups and downs in new product diffusion is proposed. It is shown that our model possesses features of the existing flexible diffusion models and shows better fit which is indicated by the values of R²_adj, mean absolute deviation, and mean percentage error and estimates a larger market potential, M. It has an interesting feature of conversion factors, first increasing then vanishing, much before we approach market saturation, implying that there is a scope of new thrust in converting remaining potential adopters.     

What Profit in Teaching Economics?

The role of profit in stimulating entrepreneurial discovery is often misrepresented in economics teaching in schools at worst as capitalist greed and at best is usually ignored. David Parker, Senior Lecturer in Business Economics at the Polytechnic of Newcastle upon Tyne, considers the history of profit in economic analysis and calls for a fundamental re-appraisal of its importance.     

进攻崇拜:一个理论神话的破灭

攻防理论认为,第一次世界大战前的军事技术发展有利于防御,但欧洲大国却误判为进攻主导,因此它们均采取进攻性战略,并导致一战的悲剧性爆发。事实并非如此。一战前的德国军事家十分认真地研究过新型武器的防御效果,承认它们会形成战术层面上的防御主导,但他们否认这是不可逾越的障碍,并致力于通过战术和战略创新来恢复进攻的可能。因此,战术层面上的防御占优会增加战争的难度和参战国的成本,但绝不会使发动战争在军事上变得不可能。攻防理论中暗含的军事技术决定战争爆发论的失败就在于它忽视了武器与人相结合的困难,想当然地简化了军事技术与军事组织相结合的过程。实际上,军事技术只是一种结构性限制框架,并不直接或必然驱使国家采取适应某种军事战略。人类可以发挥主观能动性来克服武器的防御特性,从而恢复进攻的可能性。战争从来就是敌我双方智慧与力量的博弈,绝非由某一类武器决定。     

Market Opening and Transformation of China’s Car Industry

I.IntroductionThere are two different points of view on the protection of infant industries in developing countries.One,represented by neo-classicaleconomists,arguesthatgovernmentprotectionwould contributelittleto thegrowthof indigenousenterprises,and maylead to lowefficiencyand waste in resources.Enterprises need to fully realize tradeand investment liberalization(Grossman and Horn,1988;Krueger and Tuncer,1982).Theotherviewpoint,which comesfrom structuralism(or evolutionary economics),ho…