Why do people save in cash? Distrust,memories of banking crises,weak institutions and dollarization

The paper analyzes why households hold sizeable shares of their assets in cash at home rather than at banks – a phenomenon that is widespread in many economies but for which information is scarce. Using survey data from ten Central, Eastern and Southeastern European countries, I document the relevance of this behavior and show that cash preferences cannot be fully explained by whether people are banked or unbanked. The analysis reveals that a lack of trust in banks, memories of past banking crises and weak tax enforcement are important factors. Moreover, cash preferences are stronger in dollarized economies where a “safe” foreign currency serves as a store of value.     

Wage bargaining,productivity growth and long-run industry structure

This paper studies the innovation dynamics of an oligopolistic industry. The firms compete not only in the output market but also by engaging in productivity enhancing innovations to reduce labor costs. Rent sharing may generate productivity dependent wage differentials. Productivity growth creates intertemporal spillover effects, which affect the incentives for innovation at subsequent dates. Over time the industry equilibrium approaches a steady state. The paper characterizes the evolution of the industry's innovation behavior and its market structure on the adjustment path.     

Internationalisation of technology-oriented firms in Germany and the UK

Based on longitudinal data, this article examines empirically the long-term export behaviour of German and British technology-oriented firms founded between 1987 and 1996. Applying logit models, the results show that firms can overcome high entry costs by acquiring firm-specific assets. Similarly, firm-specific resources prevent high-tech companies from exiting the international market. The strategic role of investment in R&D is stressed in particular by the data.

Uncertainty and the size distribution of rewards from innovation

 Previous research has shown that the distribution of profit outcomes from technological innovations is highly skew. This paper builds upon those detailed findings to ask: what stochastic processes can plausibly be inferred to have generated the observed distributions? After reviewing the evidence, this paper reports on several stochastic model simulations, including a pure Gibrat random walk with monthly changes approximating those observed for high-technology startup company stocks and a more richly specified model blending internal and external market uncertainties. The most highly specified simulations suggest that the set of profit potentials tapped by innovators is itself skew-distributed and that the number of entrants into innovation races is more likely to be independent of market size than stochastically dependent upon it.     

Low Mortgage Rates and Securitization: A Distinct Perspective on the US Housing Boom*

In this paper, we analyse the impacts of low interest rates and lax underwriting standards on the US housing boom around the beginning of the new millennium. We suggest a time-varying mean of the log price-to-rent ratio (PtR) to capture the persistent changes in housing prices. We show that the increasing latent trend in the PtR was significantly affected by the increased securitization of residential mortgage loans and decreasing interest rates, with the former effect being about three times larger than the latter. In the absence of securitization, negative interest rates would have been needed to reproduce an equally large housing boom since 2003.     

Measuring Spot Variance Spillovers when (Co)variances are Time‐varying – The Case of Multivariate GARCH Models

We propose global and disaggregated spillover indices that allow us to assess variance and covariance spillovers, locally in time and conditionally on time‐t information. Key to our approach is the vector moving average representation of the half‐vectorized ‘squared’ multivariate GARCH process of the popular BEKK model. In an empirical application to a four‐dimensional system of broad asset classes (equity, fixed income, foreign exchange and commodities), we illustrate the new spillover indices at various levels of (dis)aggregation. Moreover, we demonstrate that they are informative of the value‐at‐risk violations of portfolios composed of the considered asset classes.     

A web-based system architecture for ontology-based data integration in the domain of IT benchmarking

In the domain of IT benchmarking (ITBM), a variety of data and information are collected. Although these data serve as the basis for business analyses, no unified semantic representation of such data yet exists. Consequently, data analysis across different distributed data sets and different benchmarks is almost impossible. This paper presents a system architecture and prototypical implementation for an integrated data management of distributed databases based on a domain-specific ontology. To preserve the semantic meaning of the data, the ITBM ontology is linked to data sources and functions as the central concept for database access. Thus, additional databases can be integrated by linking them to this domain-specific ontology and are directly available for further business analyses. Moreover, the web-based system supports the process of mapping ontology concepts to external databases by introducing a semi-automatic mapping recommender and by visualizing possible mapping candidates. The system also provides a natural language interface to easily query linked databases. The expected result of this ontology-based approach of knowledge representation and data access is an increase in knowledge and data sharing in this domain, which will enhance existing business analysis methods.     

Still more on the speed of adjustment in inventory models: A lesson in aggregation

Applied econometric research has been troubled by the fact that estimated adjustment speeds from stock-adjustment models of inventory investment turn out to be “implausibly slow”. The paper presents new empirical evidence using business-survey data colfected by the IFO Institute Munich, Germany. It is shown empirically that there is no such a thing as an “implausibly slow” adjustment speed if estimation is done at the same level of aggregation as is requested by the underlying microeconomic theory, that is, at the level of the individual firm. Slow adjustment speeds turn out to be an artifact due to aggregation.