A Delphi technology forecasting approach using a semi-Markov concept

This paper suggests a technology forecasting approach based on a semi-Markov model, which appropriately describes the probabilistic nature of a sequential technology development process. This approach focuses primarily on the utilization of the information that has been skipped in conventional Delphi survey data. That is, through a simple statistic, the interrelationships among sequential technology developments can be extracted in a formal structure of a semi-Markov model from the original Delphi panel's estimates. A simulation technique is developed to forecast the development process by utilizing the information on such interrelationships. This technique provides a flexible and useful tool for R&D planners or project managers, especially in postanalysis of Delphi forecasting. To make good use of the approach, a computer-based interactive Delphi data analysis system (IDEAS) is implemented in IBM PC.     

LAND DEVELOPMENT UNDER REGULATION: COMPARISON BETWEEN THE EAST AND WEST SIDES OF THE CASCADE RANGE IN OREGON, WASHINGTON, AND CALIFORNIA

We compare how socioeconomic factors, physical landscape, profit uncertainty, and local land use policies have affected land development on the east and west sides of the Cascade Range in Oregon, Washington, and California. It is found that the west side has more actively planned and regulated land use than the east side. Consequently, the more intense land use regulations on the west side have reduced more land development than on the east side. Risks associated with alternative land uses as well as profits were important in land development decisions of both sides.     

Book-Tax Differences and Inland Revenue Audit Adjustments in New Zealand

Abstract:  Using confidential data from US manufacturing firms' tax returns and Inland Revenue Service (IRS) audit adjustments, Mills (1998) tests, and finds support for, her hypothesis that IRS audit adjustments increase as the book-tax differences increase. We test Mills' hypothesis using confidential data obtained from the New Zealand Inland Revenue (hereafter Inland Revenue). Confidential data provide the key variable of interest, Inland Revenue's proposed audit adjustment, which is not available from public sources. These data provide the exact audit adjustment amounts, eliminating measurement errors inherent in proxy variables, and enable a temporal alignment of the book-tax differences with the Inland Revenue audit adjustments, thereby enhancing the internal validity of the relation between book-tax differences and Inland Revenue audit adjustments. Because the results of our study using New Zealand data, another time period, a more diverse set of firms, and a different institutional environment are consistent with those of Mills, we argue for the generalizability of Mills' hypothesis that proposed audit adjustments are positively related to the excess of book income over taxable income.     

Maximum Eigenvalue Test for Seasonal Cointegrating Ranks*

The maximum eigenvalue (ME) test for seasonal cointegrating ranks is presented using the approach of Cubadda [Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics (2001), Vol. 63, pp. 497–511], which is computationally more efficient than that of Johansen and Schaumburg [Journal of Econometrics (1999), Vol. 88, pp. 301–339]. The asymptotic distributions of the ME test statistics are obtained for several cases that depend on the nature of deterministic terms. Monte Carlo experiments are conducted to evaluate the relative performances of the proposed ME test and the trace test, and we illustrate these tests using a monthly time series.     

Salesperson's innovation resistance and job satisfaction in intra-organizational diffusion of sales force automation technologies: The case of South Korea

One of the rapidly growing areas in industrial marketing is the application of sales force automation (SFA) technologies to help improve the efficiency of the sales force task. What is often overlooked is that there are some potential negative effects related to SFA technologies that arise when these innovations are forcefully adopted on the individual salesperson. This study empirically examines the psychological and social antecedents of salespeople's resistance toward SFA technologies in South Korea. Unlike previous studies that only looked at adoption, this studies adds to the literature on SFA technologies by looking at resistance toward innovation in the post-adoption or intra-organizational diffusion stage. This study looks at the direct and indirect relationships between innovation resistance and some key constructs such as job satisfaction, job performance, self-efficacy, group-efficacy, innovativeness, and peer usage. This study represents also one of the very few empirical studies conducted on sales force behavior in South Korea and as such may offer some insights on sales force management in collectivist cultures.     

Escaping Nash Inflation

An ordinary differential equation (ODE) gives the mean dynamics that govern the convergence to self-confirming equilibria of self-referential systems under discounted least squares learning. Another ODE governs escape dynamics that recurrently propel away from a self-confirming equilibrium. In a model with a unique self-confirming equilibrium, the escape dynamics make the government discover too strong a version of the natural rate hypothesis. The escape route dynamics cause recurrent outcomes close to the Ramsey (commitment) inflation rate in a model with an adaptive government.
"If an unlikely event occurs, it is very likely to occur in the most likely way."
Michael Harrison     

Do actions speak louder than words? An empirical investigation of corporate environmental reputation

In this study, we investigate the extent to which firms’ environmental performance is reflected in perceptions of their environmental reputation and whether environmental disclosure serves to mediate the negative aspects of poorer environmental performance associated with those assessments. We also examine whether differences in environmental performance and environmental disclosure appear to be associated with membership selection to the Dow Jones Sustainability Index (DJSI), a factor we also believe may be associated with perceptions of environmental reputation. Based on a cross-sectional sample of 92 US firms from environmentally sensitive industries, we find that environmental performance measured using Trucost environmental performance scores is negatively related to both reputation scores and membership in the DJSI. We argue this is due to the more extensive disclosure levels of firms that are worse performers and the finding of a significant positive relation between environmental disclosure and both the environmental reputation measures and DJSI membership. Finally, we show that the DJSI designation positively influences perceptions of corporate reputation. Overall, our results suggest that voluntary environmental disclosure appears to mediate the effect of poor environmental performance on environmental reputation. Perhaps more troubling, our results also suggest that membership in the DJSI appears to be driven more by what firms say than what they do. Thus, like voluntary disclosure, the DJSI may actually be hindering improved future corporate environmental performance.     

New insights into socially responsible consumers: The role of personal values

Given increasing interest in both socially responsible consumption behavior (SRCB) and socially responsible corporate practices in marketing, this study addressed the effects of several personal traits on SRCB (i.e., personal values, collectivism, age, and gender). Findings from an online survey revealed that consumers who valued self‐transcendence (e.g., benevolence and universalism) were more likely to engage in socially responsible consumption (e.g., recycling, avoiding, or reducing usage of products that do long‐term damage to the environment) than those who valued social status and prestige, social power, authority, and wealth. Furthermore, the findings show that older adults and women tended to engage in more SRCB than younger adults and men. Findings also indicate that age and gender were antecedents to the values of self‐transcendence and self‐enhancement.     

Does Institutional Blockholder Short‐Termism Lead to Managerial Myopia? Evidence from Income Smoothing

We examine institutional blockholders’ influence on income‐smoothing practices in the Korean market, which provides an interesting setting where family‐oriented chaebols dictate the corporate landscape and impede shareholder activism. The empirical results reveal that institutional shareholders with a short‐term (long‐term) investment horizon facilitate (constrain) managerial myopia. This positive (negative) association is most evident among firms with domestic institutional investors. Therefore, we argue that the presence of domestic institutional investors with transient investment goals incentivizes firms’ management to smooth out earnings.