The Linkage between Prices,Wages, and Labor Productivity: A Panel Study of Manufacturing Industries

This article investigates the long-run relationship between prices and wage-adjusted productivity as well as between real wages and average labor productivity at the industry level for a panel of 459 U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 1956-1996. Panel reintegration test results strongly reject the null of no reintegration in the panel between both prices and wage-adjusted productivity and between labor productivity and real wages for many (but not all) industries. Granger-causality tests show that prices are weakly exogenous and cause movements in unit labor cost. Bidirectional Granger causality is found between real wages and productivity; however, a one-to-one relationship is strongly rejected between real wages and productivity. Increases in labor productivity are associated with a less than unity increase in real wages.     

Enterprise risk management in financial groups: analysis of risk concentration and default risk

In financial groups, enterprise risk management is becoming increasingly important in controlling and managing the different independent legal entities in the group. The aim of this paper is to assess and relate risk concentration and joint default probabilities of the group’s legal entities in order to achieve a more comprehensive picture of a financial group’s risk situation. We further examine the impact of the type of dependence structure on results by comparing linear and nonlinear dependencies using different copula concepts under certain distributional assumptions. Our results show that even if financial groups with different dependence structures do have the same risk concentration factor, joint default probabilities of different sets of subsidiaries can vary tremendously.

Risk assessment of surplus appropriation schemes in participating life insurance

The aim of this paper is to analyze a life insurance company’s risk exposure with respect to different surplus appropriation schemes in participating life insurance. In this regard, three surplus appropriation schemes are considered, including the bonus system, the interest-bearing accumulation, and the system of shortening the contract term. We further examine an insurance company that offers all three schemes, i.e. each system is used for one third of the policyholders. Focus is laid on the effect of different asset portfolios and shocks to mortality on the insurer’s risk situation with respect to the policyholder’s age level at contract inception.     

Bringing History In: Policy accumulation and general policy alienation

Research mainly looked at problems public professionals have with specific policy programmes. However, policies are not developed in a vacuum. Public professionals are often confronted with (a series of) policy changes, intended to refine, replace or complement other policies. This policy accumulation results in professionals having a certain predisposition towards policies in general. To conceptualize this predisposition, we introduce the term general policy alienation. We investigate whether the earlier developed policy alienation scale can be adapted to measure general policy alienation. Our analyses show that the scale performs satisfactorily. Theoretical relevance, as well as directions for practical applications are discussed.     

Cutting the costs of attrition: Results from the Indonesia Family Life Survey

Attrition is the Achilles heel of longitudinal surveys. Drawing on our experience in the Indonesia Family Life Survey (IFLS), we describe survey design and field strategies that contributed to minimizing attrition over four waves of the survey. The data are used to illustrate the selectivity of respondents who attrit from the survey and, also the selectivity of respondents who move from the place they were interviewed at baseline and are subsequently interviewed in a new location. The results provide insights into the nature of selection that will arise in studies that fail to track and interview movers. Attrition, and types of attrition, are related in complex ways to a broad array of characteristics measured at baseline. In addition, the evidence suggests attrition may be related to characteristics that are not observed in our baseline. Integrating IFLS with data from a Survey of Surveyors, we describe characteristics of both the interviewers and the interview that predict attrition in later waves. These characteristics point to possible strategies that may reduce levels of attrition and may also reduce the impact of attrition on the interpretation of behavioral models estimated with longitudinal data.     

Threat appeals in social marketing: death as a ‘special case’

Death is commonly used as a threat, both by fear-appeal researchers and by social marketing and health promotion practitioners (eg ‘Quit smoking or you'll die’). Fear (or threat) appeal researchers have frequently used death to arouse fear, and particularly in the ‘high’ fear condition. It is argued here that death is a ‘special case’ threat, and that the introduction of death in high fear conditions is a confounder in that death is a qualitatively different negative outcome from the non-death negative outcomes used in low fear conditions. The use of death in threat appeals requires attention in its own right for a number of reasons. First, death will occur eventually regardless of the message recipient's behaviour. Hence, messages that threaten death may arouse defensive responses in the target audience (eg ‘you've got to go sometime’), and unresolvable anxiety in the general population. Secondly, death can vary on a number of attributes (eg age at death, sudden versus prolonged, etc), and, while most threat appeals imply premature death, few studies have made this point explicit. Thirdly, the fear of death is multidimensional and some dimensions are more readily acknowledged as fearful than others. For example, a threat specifying the effect of one's death on loved ones might have more impact than a threat of death to oneself. Fourthly, people may fear death differently, or, for religious or other reasons, may not fear death at all. Furthermore, there may be age and gender differences in response to threat appeals using death. It is concluded that systematic research is required to determine whether and for whom death threats are effective. Copyright © 1999 Henry Stewart Publications