商业银行期限错配下流动性风险测度及影响因素分析

本文立足于我国新的宏观经济金融形势，梳理分析商业银行期限错配与流动性风 险的相互关系。在此基础上，以某城市商业银行为例，通过H-P滤波流动性缺口分析方法对其 期限错配下的流动性风险进行了测度，通过测量发现该商业银行在近几年存在一定的流动性 风险。随后通过建立面板数据模型进一步分析了外部相关因素对商业银行期限错配下流动性 风险的影响关系和程度。研究表明，宏观经济增长、同业拆借利率、不良贷款以及存款准备金 率等因素都会对流动性产生不同程度的影响。据此提出相应的对策建议。     

How does the money market development impact the bank lending channel of emerging Countries? A case from China

Transforming from quantitative-based instruments to price-based instruments is the primary goal of the monetary policy transformation in emerging economies. In essence, this process is gradually replacing the interest rate channel with the credit channel from the perspective of the monetary policy transmission mechanism, which is mainly achieved by promoting financial development to reduce the financial friction. However, there are opposite effects of financial development on the bank lending channel; thus, the topic is controversial. Using banks’ data from 2010 to 2018, this paper studies whether and how the money market development weakens the effect of the bank lending channel in China. The result shows that the mechanism through which the money market development influences the bank lending channel is realized by affecting the substitution elasticity of the asset and liability structure of banks’ balance sheets. Different from the theoretical expectation, the effect of the money market development on the bank lending channel is nonsignificant in China but appears to be weakened when the interest rate market-oriented reform is considered. However, further research based on structural analysis demonstrates that the money market development exerts heterogeneous effects on the bank lending channel under different types of sub-markets and different characteristics of the banks considered.     

Bank loans vs. trade credit

Using a World Bank dataset of Chinese firms, we investigate the relative importance of bank loans and trade credit in promoting firm performance. To deal with possible endogeneity issues, we employ distinct and separable instrumental variables for bank loans and trade credit. We find that access to bank loans is central to improving firm performance and growth, while the availability of trade credit is much less important. Our results suggest that trade credit cannot effectively substitute for bank loans. Overall, our findings suggest the need for further development of China's formal financial institutions, which would enable the non‐state sector to grow much faster than it has grown in recent decades.     

INTEREST RATE PASS‐THROUGH: A META‐ANALYSIS OF THE LITERATURE

The interest rate pass‐through describes how changes in a reference rate (the monetary policy, money market or T‐bill rate) transmit to bank lending rates. We review the empirical literature on the interest rate pass‐through and systematize it by means of meta‐analysis and meta‐regressions. Using the pass‐through to corporate lending rates as the baseline, we find systematically lower estimated pass‐through coefficients in studies that focus on the pass‐through to consumer lending rates and rates on long‐term loans. Also studies estimating the pass‐through by averaging all lending rates into one category report a lower pass‐through. Importantly, the interest rate pass‐through is significantly influenced by the country's macro‐financial environment. In economies with deepening stock markets, the estimated pass‐through strengthens significantly. Interestingly, after the global financial crisis, the pass‐through weakened across the board, including because of growing trade openness and supply chain financing, rising volatility and stock market turnovers, as well as declining central bank independence. Inflation targeting frameworks, if in place, helped diminish this pass‐through weakening.     

基于银行流动性管理视角的宏观审慎与货币政策协调研究

本文从商业银行流动性管理视角出发,探究银行微观主体行为如何影响宏观审慎与货币政策的协调。我们借鉴净稳定资金比例的设计理念,将商业银行的流动性管理行为纳入传统理论模型,刻画出两种流动性管理行为对货币政策信贷传导渠道效率的潜在影响及传导路径。在此基础上,采用我国50家商业银行2012年第1季度—2018年第2季度面板数据进行实证检验。我们发现,银行为提升长期流动性水平而进行的优化信贷资产结构的行为,能够显著提高货币政策传导效率。但是,部分净稳定资金比例较低的股份制银行和城市商业银行调整非信贷资产结构的行为则有可能降低货币政策传导效率。因此,在执行既有流动性监管措施的同时,关注与引导银行资产结构调整方式,对增强宏观审慎与货币政策的协调大有裨益。     

Money and the ‘Level Playing Field’: The Epistemic Problem of European Financial Market Integration

ABSTRACT

Financial market integration processes in the European Union (EU) are characterised by an epistemic problem of economic theory. This problem encompasses what ‘the market’ is, how it is to be ‘integrated’, and the nature and role of ‘money’ as infrastructure of the fully integrated market. The EU’s legal framework has imported this epistemic problem along with the competitive conception of the market as described in economic theory – as a ‘level playing field’ for private exchange, under free, fair and ideally unrestrained competition. It manifests itself in European financial market integration processes, as exemplified in the article, via two otherwise disconnected areas of European Central Bank (ECB) activity: (a) the provision of central bank credit for the purpose of financial transaction settlement in the Eurozone; and (b) the conduct of ordinary monetary policy in the Eurozone. While the problem can be stabilised through legal, technical and other means, it remains latent, and may manifest itself again in unexpected ways, as happened in the wake of the 2008 financial crisis. Thus, contrary to ideologies that are widely understood as more or less coherent systems of doctrines, epistemic problems are characterised by specific tensions, contradictions and conceptual uncertainties.     

亚洲基础设施投资银行在全球卫生危机修复中的作用

全球性新冠疫情的爆发,成员国相关基础设施融资的紧迫性和资金需求激增,政府财政压力增大,迫使AIIB贷款增速快于原计划。对此,作为新建的发展融资机构AIIB积极高效应对,在全球抗疫事业中发挥着重要作用。它及时提供捐赠,改革贷款工具,简化审批流程,与国际同行机构充分合作。新冠疫情爆发后,AIIB加大了对医疗卫生相关项目的资金支持,在融资领域和资金额度上对国际发展融资体系的补充作用进一步凸显。与此同时,新冠疫情的发生和发展反过来也促进了AIIB的自身建设。一方面,在抗疫工作中的快速反应代表AIIB在一定程度上实现了成长;另一方面,抗疫工作也使AIIB进一步意识到,为持续在国际发展领域中扮演重要角色,作为成长中的机构未来有必要深入开展多渠道的国际合作,持续加强投资组合管理,并提升对私人资本的“催化”作用。     

Bank competition and financial stability in Asia Pacific

Analysis of the tradeoff between competition and financial stability has been at the center of academic and policy debate for over two decades and especially since the 2007–2008 global financial crises. Here we use information on 14 Asia Pacific economies from 2003 to 2010 to investigate the influence of bank competition, concentration, regulation and national institutions on individual bank fragility as measured by the probability of bankruptcy and the bank’s Z-score. The results suggest that greater concentration fosters financial fragility and that lower pricing power also induces bank risk exposure after controlling for a variety of macroeconomic, bank-specific, regulatory and institutional factors. In terms of regulations and institutions, the results show that tougher entry restrictions may benefit bank stability, whereas stronger deposit insurance schemes are associated with greater bank fragility.     

Consumers’ perceived risk and hold and use of payment instruments

Consumer decisions regarding retail payment instruments entail private and social costs. Due to these social costs, policymakers are increasingly trying to understand the determinants of consumer payment choices as documented by the European Central Bank’s regular publications. This article contributes to this understanding by investigating the role of perceived risk. Based on an original survey of French consumers, we measure the effects of perceived risk on the decisions to hold and use the main retail payment instruments: cash, card and cheque. We point to the sequential dependence of the decisions to hold and use a payment instrument, and study jointly both decisions. The bivariate analysis based on risk factors shows that unavailability risk and time risk have the greatest transverse influence on holding and using payment instruments. Our results, robust to controlling for consumer characteristics, confirm their propensity for a quick-to-use and constantly available payment instrument. We discuss the relevance of our results for policy making purposes.     

Bank risk,competition and bank connectedness with firms: A literature review

The outbreak of the 2007–2009 financial crisis and of the European sovereign debt crisis again raised questions about the vulnerability and the behaviour of banking institutions. The unconventional monetary policies that followed have flattened the yield curve and created a low interest rates environment. This can give rise to risk-taking behaviour from banks and can therefore undermine the stability of the banking system with negative impact of the credit supply, corporate investment and real economy. This article proposes a literature review on the main determinants of bank lending and risk-taking decisions, going through the competition in the banking market, the bank connectedness with firms and the role of monetary and banking authorities. The systemic risk concept is also discussed as well as its drivers and potential measures that should be monitored by prudential authorities in order to preserve financial stability.