Illicit drug markets and economic irregularities

Markets for illicit drugs present an interesting case study for economics, combining non-standard characteristics such as addiction and product illegality. One response has been to argue the generality of economic principles by suggesting that they apply even in the extreme case of markets for addictive substances, e.g., by showing that demand for illicit goods is responsive to price [1] [Reframing health behavior change with behavioral economics. Hillsdale, NJ:Lawrence Earlbaum Associates; 2000. p. 89-111.] and even by modeling addiction as rational [2] [J Political Econ 1988;96:675-700]. This paper sketches examples of an alternative reaction, focusing on idiosyncrasies of drug markets that might plausibly create counter-intuitive effects, including supply curves that slope downward because of enforcement swamping and/or a good serving as the only available store of wealth for its producer, demand reduction programs that increase demand, and consumption by “jugglers” possibly increasing rather than decreasing as prices rise. This analysis yields non-obvious policy recommendations; for example, source country control programs should concentrate on growing regions with a healthy banking sector.     

募集资金投向对公司经营业绩的影响分析——来自上市公司的证据

本文以2000年、2001年、2002年通过首次发行股票、配股和增发来募集资金的上市公司为对象,对募集资金的投向与公司经营业绩之间的关系进行研究。结果表明:上市公司募集资金正常投向的比率与上市公司的经营业绩显著正相关,正常投向中主业投资有利于公司经营业绩的提高;对外投资与公司经营业绩在第一年有显著相关关系,但不具有持续性;偿还债务与公司业绩之间有显著负相关关系。募集资金变更投向与公司经营业绩之间有显著负相关关系,募集资金变更为对外投资和募集资金闲置与公司经营业绩显著负相关。     

城市空间重构:从"乌托邦"到"辩证乌托邦"——大卫·哈维《希望的空间》的中国化解读

通过对大卫·哈维《希望的空间》所包含的全球化背景下的地理空间不平衡思想的解读,认为中国城市空间存在着"辩证乌托邦"的机遇.中国城市在空间建构过程中,应该避免单一价值取向的"乌托邦",而应在多元要素组成的"生命之网"的基础上建构空间的"辩证乌托邦".进而探讨了这种"替代方案"的实现所需要政府角色和公共政策的转变,以及空间协调机制的整合,这是该书带给中国城市空间演进的最大意义.     

Domestic financial market frictions,unrestricted international capital flows,and crises in small open economies

Summary. We present an example of a small open economy where small increases in the world interest rate may induce a sharp decline in output and a precipitous depreciation of the exchange rate. Due to a costly state verification problem in domestic credit markets, combined with unrestricted international capital flows, our economy generates two long-run equilibria, one with low GDP and a relatively depreciated real exchange rate (RER), and one with high GDP and a relatively appreciated RER. The first is always a saddle, while the second may be a sink or a source, depending on the level of the world interest rate. A crisis is identified with the economy switching from an equilibrium path approaching the high-output steady state to the saddlepath approaching the low-output steady state. In Mexicos recent history, periods of growth associated with appreciation of the RER have alternated with periods of sharp contraction and depreciation of the RER. Our economy displays such behavior in response to changes in the world interest rate.Received: 9 April 2002, Revised: 20 March 2003JEL Classification Numbers: E5, F4.G. Antinolfi, E. Huybens: We thank Steve Fazzari, Tim Kehoe, Todd Keister, Manuel Santos, Karl Shell and especially Bruce Smith for very helpful discussions. Jaime Calleja Alderete, Eduardo Camero Godínez, and Juan Vargas Hernández provided excellent research assistance. All remaining errors are ours. Huybens was an assistant professor in the Centro de Investigación Económica, ITAM, at the time this article was written, and part of this work was completed while Antinolfi was a visiting scholar at the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. The views expressed herein are those of the authors, and do not reflect those of the World Bank or the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis. Correspondence to: G. Antinolfi     

On the Non-Existence of Redundant Options

In a seminal paper, Ross (Q J Econ 90:75–89, 1976) shows that if security markets are resolving, then there exist (non-redundant) options that generate complete security markets. Complementing his work, Aliprantis and Tourky (2002) show that if security markets are strongly resolving and the number of primitive securities is less than half the number of states, then every option is non-redundant. Our paper extends Aliprantis and Tourky’s result to the case when their condition on the number of primitive securities is not imposed. Specifically, we show that if there exists no binary payoff vector in the asset span, then for each portfolio there exists a set of exercise prices of full measure such that any option on the portfolio with an exercise price in this set is non-redundant. Since the condition that there exists no binary payoff vector in the asset span holds generically, redundant options are thus rare. I am grateful to an anonymous referee for very helpful comments. Research support from the School of Business at The George Washington University is gratefully acknowledged     

内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型——对“东亚奇迹”和中国经济的再解释

通过吸收内生增长理论的思想 ,修正外生农业技术进步的假设 ,本文提出了一个内生农业技术进步的二元经济增长模型 ,并以此对倍受瞩目也颇多争议的“东亚奇迹”及中国经济 ,从二元经济结构转换的角度进行了分析。本文认为 ,“东亚奇迹”是传统农业劳动力不断转向现代非农业部门的结果 ;是现代部门以资本反哺传统部门 ,推动农业技术进步 ,促进劳动力转移的结果 ;也是现代部门均衡发展 ,吸纳剩余劳动力 ,加速结构转换的结果。因此 ,虽然非农部门的全要素生产率提高不够显著 ,但劳动力结构转换仍然推动经济实现了持久的高速增长。     

Joint outputs and real wage rates

The magnification effect in standard international trade theory asserts that if the relative price of the labor-intensive commodity increases, the real wage will also increase, as will the wage/rental ratio. This result depends upon the assumption that both activities are nonjoint—each combining labor and capital to produce a single output, so that if activities are joint instead, the results are in jeopardy. It is shown that if the difference between the share of commodity one produced in the first activity and in the second activity exceeds the difference between the labor distributive shares in the first activity and the second, an increase in commodity 1's relative price raises the wage/rental ratio. The real wage unambiguously rises in this case if and only if the ratio of the commodity output shares in the two activities exceeds the ratio of labor shares.     

金融发展、资本积累与内生增长:一个评述

本文以资本外溢AK内生增长模型为基础,对金融发展、资本积累与经济增长关系的理论研究和经验分析作了一个文献综述.理论研究表明:金融发展通过提高储蓄转化为资本比率、改善投资配置效率和改变储蓄率等途径促进资本积累和经济增长;金融发展与经济增长之间呈互相促进、互为因果的双向关系,并形成金融发达、经济高增长和金融欠发达、经济低增长的双重均衡.经验分析显示,金融发展与经济增长之间呈显著正相关关系,这证实了金融发展与内生增长理论的预测.     

中国城市农民工社会资本现状分析及解决途径

我国城市农民工处于城市边缘地带，社会资本占有贫乏。造成这种状况既有制度原因、城市居民的价值观念原因，亦有农民工自身的原因。我们应改变制度，改变城市居民价值观念，提高农民工综合素质，加快发展经济和加快城市化建设以增加城市农民工的补偿资本。     

资本流动性:基于中国及其他亚洲新兴国家的比较分析

衡量发展中国家资本流动性的方法有总量规模法、储蓄—投资相关法、Edwards模型以及货币自主性检验法等四种方法。本文主要运用前三种方法测度了中国改革开放以来资本的流动性,并用前两种方法比较了中国和其他亚洲新兴国家资本流动性的差异。实证结果表明,所有亚洲新兴国家金融市场处于一种开放状态,并且在所有亚洲新兴国家中,中国的资本流动性是最低的。通过运用Kalman滤波技术对中国的资本流动性进行动态分析,并没有发现1997年亚洲金融危机后中国采取更加严格的资本管制对资本流动性产生影响的证据。实证研究发现,在1997年亚洲金融危机爆发前,中国的资本流动性远低于其他亚洲新兴国家。对于发展中国家资本市场的开放来说,采取渐进式改革而不是激进式改革可能更为明智、更加合理。