中国居民消费价格指数预测

2012年下半年,中国居民消费价格指数将保持在2%左右,不会发生大的通货膨胀和通货紧缩。为避免价格大起大落,实现经济可持续发展,要坦然面对居民消费价格指数的低位运行,积极扩大消费需求;通过立法和政策引导,鼓励企业诚信经营,生产出消费者需要且信赖的产品;大力淘汰落后产能,促进行业结构调整优化和整体竞争力的提升。     

长三角地区居民消费结构及水平的统计分析

应用因子分析和聚类分析的方法，对2006年长三角16座城市居民的消费结构、消费水平进行分析和比较。结果表明，长三角16城市在居民可持续消费能力上存在差距，在居民消费结构和消费水平上可分为五类，其中上海、杭州的消费水平最高。文章还对如何提高居民消费水平，促进经济协调发展提出了对策。     

Dynamic Factor Demands and Technology Measurement under Arbitrary Expectations

We present a dynamic model of factor demands based on expected discounted costs minimization. While making only very mild assumptions on expectations and technology, we are able to establish a duality relationship between contemporary factor demands and the technology, and we provide formula for easily recovering marginal products, returns to scale, and technological change from estimated factor demands. Parametrization and implementation are illustrated in a detailed example.     

外贸结构的非均衡机理探索

经济结构呈现非均衡的常态特征。在市场不完全、信息不充分、外生条件不统一等因素的制约下,一国外贸结构形成的资源配置效率通常低于均衡世界里的帕累托最优效率,是一种“次优”均衡;这种非均衡模式可能在受到外在冲击时或通过内生演进的方式发生改变,并通过进出口商品结构、贸易方式结构等表现出来。外贸结构非均衡的核心特征是进出口商品的要素密集度高低,并与比较优势和后发优势联系在一起,成为外贸结构非均衡演进规律的主要内容。     

雷达发射信道中的噪声

本文介绍了经常被人们忽视的，有关发射信道中的噪声问题，提出了降低噪声的方法以及在处理信道噪声时应注意的几个方面。     

基于时变参数的我国全要素生产率估计

本文应用时变参数状态空间模型,利用1953~2005年中国宏观经济数据,估计了样本区间内我国的全要素生产率(TFP),并与传统的索洛残差方法的计算结果进行了比较。分析表明:时变参数方法得到的TFP增长率计算结果由于不包含方程误差,比索洛残差方法的结果精确;TFP增长率的变化趋势,基本和GDP的增长趋势相同,只是有所滞后,滞后期一般为一年。     

Food choice models and their relation with food preferences and eating frequency in the Polish population: POFPRES study

A sample of 9339 subjects aged 13–75, living in the six macro-regions of Poland rated the preferences of 140 various food products, eating frequency and factors influencing food choice. Four groups of consumers were found: “consumers susceptible to advertising and seeking novel healthy products” (33.2% of the sample), “consumers not taking care of their health” (25.4%), “consumers not susceptible to advertising and taking care of their health” (32.5%), and “consumers insensitive to sensory attributes of fruit and vegetables” (9.0%). Among factors influencing the food choice, sensory and functional factors were significant, and health and price – moderate. Advertising was generally denied as an important factor in food choice. The food choice motives were highly dependent on age and gender, and to a lower extent – on region of residence, size of place of residence, economic condition and education level. Women/girls more often showed pro-health behaviours in food choice, choice motives, preferences and food intake.     

A LOGISTICS STRATEGY TAXONOMY

Beginning with Bowersox and Daugherty's (1987) influential work describing three unique logistics organizational forms, researchers have generally taken a theoretical typology approach to classifying logistics strategies, and attempts to validate the numerous proposed typologies have produced inconsistent and somewhat conflicting results. In an attempt to add clarity to this stream of research, the current article partially replicates and extends the previous studies using a more rigorous and data‐driven methodology, by developing an empirical taxonomy with firmlevel logistics activities used as clustering criteria. The results identify two primary logistics strategy types used by contemporary firms. The revealed strategies are somewhat parallel to two of the three strategic orientations proposed within the original Bowersox and Daugherty (1987) typology, but also elements suggested by other researchers, as well as new concepts introduced since the original work was published. Based on the results, implications of the revealed logistics strategy taxonomy are provided for managers, and foundations are laid for researchers seeking to undertake further inquiry in the area.     

人民币实际汇率调整趋势与中国经济转型

1978年以来的人民币实际汇率呈现出长期的贬值态势,本文结合中国经济改革的历程深入分析了实际汇率贬值的内在机制,认为市场化进程中的制度变迁和技术进步是其根本原因。而目前经济的内外失衡所引发的实际汇率和名义汇率的升值压力,本质上是深层次市场化改革推进受阻后经济结构扭曲的外在表现。本文认为,以汇率形成机制改革为主要内容的名义的市场化改革只能缓解而无法根除这种压力,推行土地、劳动力和自然资源等要素价格在内的实际的市场改革才是纠正内外失衡,缓解汇率升值压力的治本之道。     

中国能耗增长的阶段性特征:基于LMDI模型的实证研究

本文运用与SDA法相结合的LMDI分解模型,根据能耗增长特点分四个阶段探讨了包含能源强度、中间投入结构变动的技术效应和包含消费、投资、出口变动的最终需求效应对中国能源消耗增长的时段驱动模式。结果表明:(1)1997-2010年间,各阶段"三驾马车"引领的最终需求效应不单是规模庞大,也应相对稳定,能耗增长的异常波动主要取决于技术效应;(2)能源强度效应一直起着节能降耗的积极作用,而中间投入结构自2002年后向高耗能依存特征转变,成为能耗增长的推动因素;(3)2006年开始实施的能源强度政策有效改变了能耗增长轨迹,而国际金融危机的突然爆发扭曲了政府政策执行的初衷、方式和效率。