经济开放度与金融发展:基于中国数据的实证研究

根据金融发展理论的最新研究,产品市场与金融市场的同时开放能够极大地促进金融体系的发展。文章综合多个衡量我国金融市场和产品市场开放程度的指标,利用因子分析计算我国的经济开放度的数据,使用协整分析和Granger因果检验对经济开放度与金融发展之间的关系进行实证研究。结果发现,除了CAP指标外,经济开放度是BANK的Granger原因,并且与其他的金融发展指标之间存在协整关系。     

中国对外直接投资对进出口贸易的影响分析

笔者在分析对外直接投资对进出口贸易影响机制的基础上,使用1993年～2009年中国对105个国家(地区)直接投资和进出口贸易的面板数据,应用动态VAR模型和面板格兰杰因果检验方法对我国的情况进行实证研究。结果表明:我国对外直接投资与出口及进口之间均存在双向格兰杰因果关系,对外直接投资是贸易创造型的,但这种创造效应还较为有限。因此,应积极发展对外直接投资,并发挥其与贸易的良性互动关系。     

中美两国间价格体系的动态传导机理

本文采用向量自回归模型和Granger因果关系检验,动态分析了中国与美国间价格体系的传导机理。结果表明:中美两国间的价格体系存在显著的动态传导关系;美国CPI和PPI波动对中国价格体系均具有较强的动态冲击,其中以PPI主导的正向传导特征明显,而CPI对中国价格体系的冲击路径则表现为差异性;中国CPI和PPI波动仅对美国PPI具有正向传导效应,但冲击影响的持续性明显较弱;与美国国内价格体系的传导特征不显著相比,中国国内价格体系在受到外部冲击时表现为明显的交互加强特征。因此,我国在政策制定过程中必须充分考虑外部价格冲击的影响,从而确保政策目标的顺利实现和经济的健康发展。     

我国高新技术企业R＆D投入与技术创新关系的协整分析

文章利用单位根平稳性检验和协整检验的理论,通过对1996—2007年度我国高新技术企业R＆D投入与技术创新之间协整分析和因果关系检验,建立了二者之间的误差修正模型,揭示了我国高新技术企业R＆D投入与技术创新的动态均衡关系,并提出增加高新技术企业R＆D投入、促进技术创新的对策。     

我国居民收入与资产价格关系的实证研究

居民收入与资产价格之间到底存在怎样的关系是理论界广泛关注的问题。在中国当前特殊情况下,房地产和股票分别是两大具有代表性的实体资产与虚拟资产。本文基于较大期限跨度的数据,使用Jo-hansen协整检验和Granger因果关系检验方法,对居民收入和资产价格之间的关系进行实证研究。结论表明,居民收入提高不会导致实体资产价格上升,但会对虚拟资产价格产生一定的影响。基于此,现阶段国内要稳步发展房地产市场和股票市场,引导投资者合理投资,在提高居民收入时要注意促使居民扩大消费而不是追加投资。     

Fear Linkages Between the US and BRICS Stock Markets: A Frequency-Domain Causality

Abstract

We employ a spectral causality approach to uncover short-, medium-, and long-run causal relations between the US implied volatility index and the five individual implied volatility indexes of BRICS markets from 16^th March 2011 to 31^st January 2018. We show that the volatility causal relations differ between the short and long run in many cases. Although the results indicate the dominant role played by US uncertainty in shaping uncertainty in all BRICS markets, there is also evidence of a feedback effect from Brazil, Russia, and China to the US that differs across the spectrum. The implications for hedging and risk management practices are explored.     

农村金融生态环境与金融效率指标体系构建及互动分析

分别建立农村金融生态环境和金融效率评价指标体系,并从理论上分析二者的互动机制。然后运用Granger因果检验法,对1985-2008年农村金融生态环境和金融效率关系进行实证分析,结果显示二者存在Granger因果关系,建议通过优化农村金融生态环境来促进金融效率提高,并带来自身进一步改善。     

Short Term External Debt and Economic Growth—Granger Causality: Evidence from Latin America and the Caribbean

In this paper the direction of the causality relationship between economic growth and short-term external debt was investigated for 27 Latin American and Caribbean countries over the period 1970–2003. The empirical results suggest the existence of bidirectional causality relationships between the two variables for several countries, which means that the performance of both variables is interrelated. The main finding is that in the short- and long- runs Granger causality from economic growth to short-term external debt is present in 13 Latin American and Caribbean countries. With the evidence suggesting, in the majority of estimated cases, economic growth Granger caused short-term external debt, short-term policy decisions related to capacity absorption enhancement should be encouraged in Latin America and the Caribbean. Further work in this regard is encouraged in the form of panel studies or specific individual case studies inclusive of foreign trade linkage parameters to capture the potential effects of omitted variables.

A Sequential Test for Structural Breaks in the Causal Linkages Between the G7 Short-Term Interest Rates

This paper investigates changes in the causal structure linking the G-7 short-term rates by using a sequential test for the constancy of the adjustment coefficients in error correction equations. This technique allows us to detect permanent structural breaks in the causal linkages. In this instance, the hypotheses of interest are the US world-wide leadership, the disengagement of UK monetary policy from those pursued in the Eurozone after the collapse of the ERM, and the German leadership hypothesis (GLH) within the European Union (EU). While we do not find any examples of reversal of causality, the evidence points to a break in the causal linkages between the UK and the German rates after the third/fourth quarter of 1992. The empirical results are also consistent with a US world-wide leadership and a weak German leadership within the Eurozone.     

我国经济周期波动的需求分析

在利用H-P滤波法分离经济变量波动成分和趋势成分的基础上，运用ADF单位根检验、Granger因果关系检验等计量经济方法实证研究了消费、投资以及净出口等需求因素与我国宏观经济波动的关系。研究结果表明：消费波动对我国宏观经济波动的影响最大，且为正；投资波动对宏观经济波动的影响较小，且为负；净出口的波动与我国宏观经济总侉波动没有Granger因果关系。