Cross-ownership as a structural explanation for over- and underestimation of default probability

Based on the work of Suzuki, we consider a generalization of Merton’s asset valuation approach in which two firms are linked by cross-ownership of equity and liabilities. Suzuki’s results then provide no arbitrage prices of firm values, which are derivatives of exogenous asset values. In contrast to the Merton model, the assumption of lognormally distributed assets does not result in lognormally distributed firm values, which also affects the corresponding probabilities of default. In a simulation study we see that, depending on the type of cross-ownership, the lognormal model can lead to both over- and underestimation of the actual probability of default of a firm under cross-ownership. In the limit, i.e. if the levels of cross-ownership tend to their maximum possible value, these findings can be shown theoretically as well. Furthermore, we consider the default probability of a firm in general, i.e. without a distributional assumption, and show that the lognormal model is often able to yield only a limited range of probabilities of default, while the actual probabilities may take any value between 0 and 1.     

Lending technologies,banking relationships,and firms’ access to credit in Italy: the role of firm size

This paper analyses the role of lending technologies and banking relationships on firms’ credit access in Italy. Using EFIGE firm-level data, we show that the depth and strength of firm–bank relationships have heterogeneous effects on credit demand and rationing probabilities depending on the size of the borrower. Multiple banking relationships alleviate financial constraints for small firms, while borrowing from a large number of lenders hinders access to credit for large companies. Small and medium-sized enterprises with a higher share of debt with the main bank have a lower probability of being credit denied, as debt concentration contributes to overcome the opacity problems typical of the SMEs. Long-lasting relationships, by reducing information asymmetries, significantly improve access to credit for small and large firms. Conversely, we find that medium-sized enterprises are more exposed to financing constraints as relationship duration increases, due to possible lock-in effects. Finally, firms maintaining banking relationships based on transactional technologies are more likely to be credit denied, while the use of relationship lending technologies improves credit availability for both small and large enterprises.     

Currency total return swaps: valuation and risk factor analysis

Abstract

Currency total return swaps (CTRS) are hybrid derivative instruments that allow us to simultaneously hedge against credit and currency risks. We develop a structural credit risk model to evaluate CTRS premia. An empirical test on a sample of 23,005 price observations from 59 underlying issuers yields an average percentage error of around 10%. This indicates that, beyond interest rate risk, firm-specific factors are major drivers of the variations in the valuation of these instruments. Regression analysis of residuals shows that exchange rate determinants account for up to 40% of model pricing errors, indicating that a currency risk premium affects the CTRS price significantly but only marginally, which confirms the prevalence of credit risk in the pricing of CTRS.     

高校学分制条件下的选课制存在的问题与对策

作为高校教学改革的一个重要内容,在实施选课制的过程中出现师资数量不足、课程教学资源缺乏、学生盲目选课等问题,本文在分析存在的问题的基础上,介绍了我院完善选课制的策略,为高校学分制下选课模式的实践与探索提供了新的思路.     

特种高收益风险债券──风险投资的金融创新

风险投资是指投资者以获得红利或出售股权获利为目的，出资协助具有专门技术而无自由资金的企业或个人实现创业，承担创业阶段的失败风险并将回收资金循环投入高风险事业。但是，由于种种投资类型所固有的特征，它所涵盖的投资主体和投资对象都会受到一定的限制。因此，设计一种特种高收益风险债券，这种债券能够弥补传统风险投资的缺陷，吸引更多业绩良好的中小企业或是具有特殊性的行业及企业进入风险投资领域，成为高科技企业融资的新选择。     

Capital accumulation and regulation

This paper sets up a dynamic model that analyzes a bank's capital decision and the impact of this decision on her default risk and lending that affects aggregate output in the economy under regulation. The model shows that even though capital regulation may reduce the default risk of the bank, it may lead to credit crunch, hence the ensuing decline in output in the real sector. Furthermore, it appears that the risk-based capital requirement changes the composition of both liability and asset of the bank's balance sheet.     

The Considerations on the Development of Well-being Credit in Underdeveloped Areas of West China

党中央、国务院高度重视民生问题,并一直把关注民生、保障民生、改善民生摆在突出位置。同时,民生问题也是老百姓最关心、最直接、最现实的利益问题。而保障和改善民生离不开金融信贷的支持,切实加大对民生领域的信贷支持、大力发展民生信贷,对保障和改善民生具有重大的现实意义。本课题基于欠发达地区民生信贷现状,剖析其中存在的问题,从而提出完善民生信贷的措施及政策建议。     

Regret theory and the banking firm: The optimal bank interest margin

This paper examines the optimal bank interest margin, i.e., the spread between the loan rate and the deposit rate of a bank, when the bank is not only risk-averse but also regret-averse. Regret-averse preferences are characterized by a utility function that includes disutility from having chosen ex-post suboptimal alternatives. We show that the presence of regret aversion raises or lowers the optimal bank interest margin than the one chosen by the purely risk-averse bank, depending on whether the probability of default is below or above a threshold value, respectively. Regret aversion as such makes the bank less prudent and more prone to risk-taking when the probability of default is high, thereby adversely affecting the stability of the banking system.     

A framework to measure integrated risk

A framework underlying various models that measure the credit risk of a portfolio is extended in this paper to allow the integration of credit risk with a range of market risks using Monte Carlo simulation. A structural model is proposed that allows interest rates to be stochastic and provides closed-form expressions for the market value of a firm's equity and its probability of default. This model is embedded within the integrated framework and the general approach illustrated by measuring the risk of a foreign exchange forward when there is a significant probability of default by the counterparty. For this example moving from a market risk calculation to an integrated risk calculation reduces the expected future value of the instrument by an amount that could not be calculated using the common pre-settlement exposure technique for estimating the credit risk of a derivative.