商户小额贷款决策模型

根据"信用等级越高的客户对应的违约损失率越低"的标准进行信用等级划分。利用由中国银监会规定的最低核心资本充足率推导的贷款最低目标利润率,测算出银行可承受的最大年违约损失率,从而确定商户小额贷款的临界信用级别,并利用中国某全国性大型商业银行的2047个商户的数据进行了实证检验。     

财政政策对军民融合企业创新绩效的影响——创新投入的中介效应分析

我国军民融合战略的提出旨在促进科技创新和经济效率提升,保障国防和国家安全。基于2008—2019年我国(内地)276家上市军民融合企业面板数据,运用当期、滞后期多元回归模型和中介效应模型,实证探究财政政策对军民融合企业创新绩效的影响机制。结果表明：财政补助对企业当期创新绩效以及滞后期创新科技绩效起显著促进作用,对滞后期创新经济绩效没有显著影响;税收优惠对企业当期和滞后期创新绩效均具有显著促进作用;创新投入对当期及滞后期创新绩效均具有显著促进作用,但对滞后期的影响更加显著。创新投入的中介效应在财政补助对当期创新科技绩效和滞后期创新绩效的影响过程中显著,在税收优惠对当期和滞后期创新绩效的影响过程中显著。其中,税收优惠完全通过创新投入对当期创新科技绩效产生正向影响。     

Credit constraints and smallholder dairy production in the East African highlands: application of a switching regression model

Accurate assessment of farmers' credit constraint condition is important in order to understand the circumstances under which credit would have its greatest impact. In this study a switching regression model was used to determine the impact of credit on smallholder dairy farms in the East African highlands using farm level data from Ethiopia and Kenya. Farmers were classified as credit constrained or credit non-constrained based on their responses from the farm level surveys. No consistent relationship was found between farmers' credit constraint condition and their borrowing status. Most of the variation in milk output per farm was explained by the number of crossbred milking cows in the dairy herd. As credit is likely to facilitate investment in crossbred dairy cows it will have substantial impacts on smallholder dairy farms especially if it is targeted to credit constrained farms.     

Does scoring a subpopulation make a difference

Scorecards used by consumer credit providers to assess the probability that an applicant will default are usually built for the population of potential applicants as a whole. This paper investigates whether it is permissible and worth-while to build a separate scorecard for each subpopulation of applicants. We review the legal requirements to find that it is permissible to use separate scorecards for many, but not all, personal characteristics. Second, using data supplied by a credit card organization separate scorecards were built for several subpopulations for each of twelve personal characteristics. The predicted performance of each was compared with that gained form estimating a scorecard for the full population using three methods for setting the cut-off scores in an `independent' way. These methods differ in the degree to which the cut-off scores are independent of information about other subpopulation, in the level of discrimination achieved between likely good payers and defaulters and in the degree to which each method is robust to new data. We conclude, first, that creating scorecards using subpopulations does not necessarily give better discrimination between likely good payers and defaulters. Second, none of the three methods examined to set the cut-off scores dominates the others using the three desirable properties described; trade-offs are required. Finally, subpopulation scorecards lead to the rejection of fewer applicants than scorecards built on full populations.     

征信体系的作用与效率——基于信息不对称随机有限重复博弈的分析

征信体系的意义可以用重复博弈理论来加以解释.本文建立了一个信息不对称随机有限重复信用博弈模型,证明如果存在征信体系实现的信息共享机制,那么不论借款者的类型是什么,诚实守信是可以作为序列均衡的结果在有限重复博弈的绝大多数时期中出现的.如果不存在信息共享机制,信贷市场有可能消失,即便引入资产抵押,信贷市场仍是不完全的.基于上述序列均衡分析,本文进一步阐释了全面征信、法律保障、市场结构对征信体系效率运行的重要性.就发展中国家而言,成立中性、独立、信息全面的国家信用局和鼓励民营信用公司积极竞争,完善义务征信的法律体系是较为理想和可行的选择     

从“信用卡套现”行为所想到的

随着信用卡在我国的广泛使用,各种专门针对信用卡的违规套现行为也随之蔓延,严重影响了我国的金融秩序的正常运行。本文从什么是信用卡套现、它有什么危害、怎样来规范信用卡套现的行为等方面说明。     

微型金融评级的特殊性及对我国的启示

微型金融评级以微型金融为基础，是微型金融发展到一定阶段的产物。微型金融的特殊性决定了微型金融评级在评级对象、评级主体、评级方法、评级功能等方面也存在特殊性。随着微型金融的迅速发展，我国应逐步构建微型金融评级体系，并利用现存机构、以标准化方法开展微型金融评级，以推动我国微型金融评级发展。     

A re-examination of the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields

In this article we re-examine the impact of credit ratings and economic factors on state bond yields using a two-step model. In the first step, we adopt an ordered probit technique to obtain consistent estimates of state bond default risk. In the second step, we estimate state bond risk premiums using a regression analysis with a categorized risk variable obtained from the first step. Similar to Terza (1987) and Hsiao (1983), the model involves a categorized ordinal explanatory (rating) variable. However, our two-step model deals with a case where category thresholds are unknown and dependent on economic factors. The model provides consistent estimates for the effects of ratings and economic factors on state bond yields. Contrary to previous findings, we find that state bond yields are mainly affected by fundamental economic variables.     

基于信息共享机制的供应链融资风险管理研究

从信贷业务的共性和供应链融资的特殊性出发,指出了供应链融资面临的多种信贷风险,分析了信息共享对信贷风险的影响,并提出基于信息共享机制的供应链融资信贷风险管理策略。