Valuation of vulnerable American options with correlated credit risk

This article evaluates vulnerable American options based on the two-point Geske and Johnson method. In accordance with the Martingale approach, we provide analytical pricing formulas for European and multi-exercisable options under risk-neutral measures. Employing Richardson’s extrapolation gets the values of vulnerable American options. To demonstrate the accuracy of our proposed method, we use numerical examples to compare the values of vulnerable American options from our proposed method with the benchmark values from the least-square Monte Carlo simulation method. We also perform sensitivity analyses for vulnerable American options and show how the prices of vulnerable American options vary with the correlation between the underlying assets and the option writer’s assets.      

世界银行卡产业发展研究

随着全球经济的复苏和银行卡受理环境的改善,近年来世界银行卡产业保持着迅捷的增长势头,银行卡作为支付手段对现金和支票的替代作用也日益明显。本文从总量指标和人均指标两方面对当前世界主要国家和地区银行卡产业的交易状况进行了实证研究,分析了全球银行卡市场在区域和品牌上的分布结构,并对该产业近年来的发展趋势进行了总结与探讨。     

信贷配给对货币政策有效性的影响

商业银行在货币政策传导机制中处于枢纽地位,其信贷配给行为的发生,一方面形成了巨额的超额准备金,另一方面造成了信贷市场的分割,其结果降低了货币政策的有效性.这在我国表现为:一方面,商业银行的信贷配给所形成的"惜贷现象"阻断了货币政策向融资企业的传导;另一方面,民营企业难以成为提高货币政策有效性的主体.从而造成了我国货币政策效果较差的后果.解决此问题的根本方法在于降低商业银行贷款风险,缓解信贷配给.具体措施:一是建立商业银行进行信息搜寻的激励机制,二是建立融资企业的融资担保体系,使商业银行的贷款风险得以转嫁.     

Pricing default swaps: Empirical evidence

In this paper we compare market prices of credit default swaps with model prices. We show that a simple reduced form model outperforms directly comparing bonds' credit spreads to default swap premiums. We find that the model yields unbiased premium estimates for default swaps on investment grade issuers, but only if we use swap or repo rates as proxy for default-free interest rates. This indicates that the government curve is no longer seen as the reference default-free curve. We also show that the model is relatively insensitive to the value of the assumed recovery rate.     

信用制度变迁下的票据市场功能演进与中小企业融资模式选择

商业信用是信用制度的基础,票据则是在商业信用基础上所产生的最有代表性的信用工具。随着信用制度的发展变迁,票据发展出汇兑、支付、结算、融资等功能。在发达市场经济条件下,票据的核心功能最终演化为融资。中国票据市场服务于中国经济市场化转型的需要,在解决中小企业融资方面发挥了重要作用,但票据市场制度体系也需要与时俱进进行修复调整。票交所作为票据市场重要的制度创新,推动票据市场从区域分割、信息不透明、以纸质票据和线下操作为主的传统市场向全国统一、安全高效、电子化的现代市场转型。在我国经济从高速增长阶段转向高质量发展阶段,需要进一步加强票据市场基础设施建设和制度建设,深化票据市场为实体经济服务的功能,尤其是发挥好为中小企业融资的作用。     

Optimizing the credit term decisions in supply chain finance

We study a credit term determination problem in the context of a supplier-buyer supply chain. The supplier's credit term decision is simultaneously made with its production and inventory decisions, and most importantly, it is impacted by the buyer's order quantity. We present a new game-theoretic framework to model this problem, which captures the interaction between the supplier's credit term decision and the buyer's order decision in a multi-period setting. An exact method based on nonlinear programming is implemented to obtain the optimal solutions. We apply our methodologies on a real world case. The computational results show that our approach significantly outperforms the heuristics with fixed credit terms, and either a short or a long credit term can be sub-optimal for the supplier in profitability. Our work offers the first data-driven model and solution approach that assists purchasing and supply managers to make optimal dynamic credit term decision in conjunction with production, ordering and inventory decisions in a game-theoretic setting.     

Bubbles,banks and financial stability

The macroeconomic impact of rational bubbles in a limited commitment economy crucially depends on whether banks or ordinary savers hold the bubble. Banks hold the bubble asset when their leverage is high, when long-term real interest rates are low or when lax supervision allows them to enjoy high deposit insurance subsidies. When banks are the bubble-holders, this amplifies the output boom by reducing loan–deposit rate spreads while the bubble survives but also deepens the recession when the bubble bursts. In contrast, the real impact of bubbles held by ordinary savers is more muted.     

Pricing CDS spreads with Credit Valuation Adjustment using a mixture copula

Credit derivatives pricing models before Basel III ignored losses in market value stemming from higher probability of counterparty default. We propose a general credit derivatives pricing model to evaluate a Credit Default Swap (CDS) with counterparty risk, including the Credit Valuation Adjustment (CVA) in order to optimize the economic capital allocation. We work from the model proposed by Luciano (2003, Working Paper, International Center of Economic Research) and the general pricing representation established by Sorensen and Bollier (Financial Analysts Journal 1994;50(3):23–33) to provide a model close to the market practice, easy to implement and fitting with Basel III framework. We approach the dependence between counterparty risk and that of the reference entity with a technical tool: the copula, in particular, the mixture one that combines common “extreme” copulas. We study the CDS's vulnerability in extreme dependence cases. By varying Spearman's rho, the mixture copula covers a broad spectrum of dependence and ensures closed form prices. We end up with an application on real market data.     

Institutions,moral hazard and expected government support of banks

We model the expected support of banks with credit ratings from Moody's and Fitch, taking explicitly into account the capacity and willingness of governments to provide support in case of need, as well as their concerns about moral hazard (i.e., that the expected support may induce banks to assume bigger risks). Our results suggest that moral hazard concerns are relatively weak. In addition, a substantial part of the expected support can be attributed to the quality of a country's institutions. These findings have important implications for the dynamics of banking crises, the value of the ‘fair’ insurance premium banks might be called upon to pay for the expected support, as well as for ways to reduce the resulting negative externalities.     

How do “gatekeepers” affect credit risk?

This study investigates the relationship between auditor tenure and credit default swap (CDS) spreads of U.S. firms based on quantile regression. After allowing for common determinants of CDS spreads, auditor tenure exerts both statistically and economically significant additional impacts on the CDS market. Furthermore, there are differential effects of common CDS spread determinants and auditor tenure. While common determinants of CDS spreads (e.g., leverage, volatility, risk free rate, credit ratings, and earnings) have monotonically increasing impacts when CDS spreads (and their changes) are increasingly higher, auditor tenure primarily has the impact when CDS spreads are of low or median levels for less risky firms.