牡丹江市天仙宫滑坡稳定性分析与治理措施

天仙宫滑坡严重威胁黑龙江省的著名道教圣地天仙宫和201国道的安全。通过勘察查明了天仙宫滑坡的滑坡形成机理,结果表明,新发育的滑坡在自重情况下滑坡处于稳定状态;在现状地下水位情况下,滑坡处于欠稳定状态,在暴雨加地下水位状态下,滑坡处于欠稳定-不稳定状态,滑坡失稳可能性较大;原有滑坡处于稳定状态。针对滑坡体设置了抗滑桩、地下排水盲沟、地表截排水沟等综合治理方案,至今运行效果良好。     

Information acquisition,foreign bank entry,and credit allocation

This paper presents a theoretical framework to understand the impact of foreign bank entry on the access to and the price of credit for different types of firms. A major point of departure from the previous literature is that incumbents’ information about firms is endogenous in the model; previous screenings and lending relations of incumbents determine which type(s) of firms they can identify. I show that incumbents’ information is negatively correlated with the quality of borrowers. Moreover, although a priori entrants have a comparative advantage in lending to transparent firms, previous lending relations of incumbents might reverse this relation. In particular, given that transparent firms are the only type screened before the entry and therefore they are the only type distinguishable by incumbents, entrants might have a comparative advantage in lending to opaque firms. The analysis provides new insights into the inconclusive evidence of the literature regarding entrants’ credit allocation.     

Managing price and financial stability objectives in inflation targeting economies in Asia and the Pacific

Many central banks have adopted explicit objectives for financial stability, raising the possibility of trade-offs between price and financial stability objectives. Based on structural vector autoregressions that incorporate both monetary and macroprudential policy shocks for four inflation targeting economies in Asia and the Pacific, we analyse the role of each policy shock in explaining deviations from the other policy’s objective, by applying historical decompositions. The macroprudential measures used in the study affect credit extended to the private sector. We find that there are periods when macroprudential policy shocks have contributed to pushing inflation away from the central bank’s inflation target and when monetary policy shocks have contributed to buoyant credit, suggesting that there have been short-term trade-offs between price and financial stability objectives. However, we also find periods when macroprudential policy shocks helped stabilise inflation and monetary policy shocks contributed to financial stability.     

Measures to tame credit growth: Are they effective?

This paper focuses on policy measures taken to curb bank credit growth in the private sector in the pre-crisis period 2003–2007. Our analysis is based on an original survey conducted in 2010 on eleven central banks in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE). The findings reveal substantial policy intervention: a total of 82 measures were implemented in CEE during the period considered. The paper presents a panel data analysis of the effectiveness of the policy measures adopted in the region. The overall results indicate that certain measures – particularly asset classification and provisioning rules and loan eligibility criteria – might have been effective in taming bank credit growth, especially if applied in the context of more general policy measures featuring a combination of various instruments. However, in countries in which the authorities managed to somewhat decrease the flows of bank credit into the economy, the measures were often circumvented via direct, cross-border credit from foreign banks and credit provided by domestic, non-bank financial companies.     

后危机时代哈萨克斯坦银行信用风险评析

正当全球进入“后危机时代”之时，哈萨克斯坦银行业却出现了业绩急速下滑、逾期贷款激增、坏账比例增多等问题，引起了IMF和国际评级机构的特别关注，哈萨克斯坦政府及时出台“反危机计划”，通过对“问题银行”的债务重组、注资等，扭转了哈萨克斯坦银行业的信用危机。然而，哈萨克斯坦银行业并没有完全走出危机的阴影，不良贷款、收不抵支等问题依然困扰着哈萨克斯坦的部分银行。本文从国际评级机构对哈萨克斯坦银行业的信用评价入手，结合哈萨克斯坦银行业的现状，对其进行潜在信用风险的分析，认为哈萨克斯坦银行业依然存在贷款质量低下、收不抵支、巨额亏损的信用风险。     

INTERNATIONAL TRADE NETWORKS UNDER GLOBAL TREATY STABILITY

The stability of international trade networks has been investigated using the pairwise stability concept. This concept is suitable to study the formation of bilateral agreements. However, it cannot be used to determine the stability of global trade agreements. This article proposes an alternative stability concept that can be adopted to determine the stability of global agreements such as the Doha agreement. This concept is named in this paper Global Treaty Stability.     

Loss severities on residential real estate debt during the Great Recession

This study develops estimates of expected loss severities on mortgage exposures using data from Florida during the Great Recession. This paper marks the first attempt at addressing sample selectivity in the context of loss models. We also construct measures of home equity that are more accurate than those employed in previous studies. We find that failing to address sample selection and the use of noisy equity measures in loss models can bias loss estimates significantly. We also find significantly higher loss severities and a greater sensitivity of loss severity to equity than what previous studies report.     

乙醇柴油稳定性试验与乳化剂开发研究

本文根据相似相溶原理和亲油-亲水平衡(HLB值)理论,分别制备了以单试剂和复配型试剂为乳化剂的乳化E10和E15乙醇柴油体系,进行了单试剂和复配型乳化试剂的乳化效能研究,并对试验结果进行了深入的理论分析。实验证明,复配型乳化剂在较宽的温度范围内具有良好的物理稳定性,且乳化能力强,有效地保证了乳状液的能量。     

Does regulatory forbearance matter for bank stability? Evidence from creditors’ perspective

Regulatory forbearance in times of corporate distress has been a common practice in many countries to achieve bank stability, particularly so in the absence of a unified bankruptcy code, yet very little is known in the context of emerging market economies. Exploiting variation of membership across banks in a corporate debt restructuring programme (CDR) sponsored by the central bank in India, this paper finds that the banks that made use of regulatory forbearance (RF) on the restructured corporate loans could increase their stability significantly due to the extension of low provisioning on restructured loans. However, the positive effect of RF diminishes at higher levels of market power, highlighting that member banks with higher market power tend to originate riskier assets (as reflected in their risk-weighted assets) under the auspices of this programme. Our results remain robust to different estimators (including propensity score matching), ownership structure, and alternative measures of bank stability.     

Assessing optimal credit growth for an emerging banking system

The paper sets forth a novel way to estimate the optimal level of credit growth for an emerging banking system. Contrary to the traditional credit-to-GDP gap indicator, credit growth is considered to be optimal when it does not accelerate credit risk measured by loan loss provisions. We provide empirical support for modelling the provision charge ratio dynamic by the quadratic function of the credit growth deviation from its optimal level. The operational framework consists of a simplified financial satellite with two equations representing credit growth and change in the provision charge ratio. Our empirical results show that a 3 percent (±1 pp margin) quarterly increase in credit to the private sector is, in nominal terms, optimal for financial stability and sustainable growth in Romania.