Survival is for the fittest: Export survival patterns in Georgia

This paper analyzes the determinants of export flow survival in Georgia. The paper uses a unique Georgian firm-level dataset, in which firm characteristics and output dynamics are matched with their customs export transactions, for the period 2006–2012. We adopt a discrete survival model to explore the role of firm-level characteristics, diversification strategies and network effects on the survival rates of export flows. Low survival rates at the product level limit the ability of Georgian firms to consolidate new products in international markets. The analysis finds that it is production efficiency, rather than size, that boosts export survival chances, that firms’ diversification strategies matter for the prospects of survival, and that there is strong evidence of network effects in export survival. We also find that ratified foreign trade agreements contribute to increase the survival of export flows by reducing policy-induced trading costs and increasing information about destination markets.     

时变混合Copula模型的非参数估计及应用研究

针对传统动态混合Copula参数建模所存在的缺陷,本文提出了混合Copula的非参数建模方法,即不对模型的参数进行任何形式的设定,而假设参数为时间的函数,运用局部极大似然估计法来对参数进行估计。我们推导了非参数估计量的渐近正态性质、讨论了估计量的偏差与方差的大小,并运用交叉验证法给出最优带宽的选择。有限样本下的蒙特卡洛模拟显示,时变混合Copula的非参数估计具有良好的统计性质。最后,将该方法应用于股市间尾部相依特征的研究,发现我国股市与美、日、港、英股市间的左右尾部相依性呈现明显的时变性和非对称性。     

农户对专业合作社依存性影响因素分析——基于山东等四省408户农户调查数据的分析

本文基于对山东等四省408户农民专业合作社社员的调查,利用Logistic模型,分析影响农户对合作社依存性的因素,结果表明:农户年龄、合作社提供服务状况、农户入社后收入增加情况、合作社盈余状况及合作社形象对农户对专业合作社依存性影响显著;农户受教育程度、非农收入在总收入中的比重、农户生产规模及社会资源情况对于农户对专业合作社依存性影响不显著。     

China in transition: institutional change at work in inland waterway transport on the Yangtze River

Chinese national fiscal reforms and the transfer of power from the central government to local governments impact the governance of inland waterway transport (IWT). In this paper we argue that the development of IWT on the Yangtze River is strongly influenced by institutional changes at different levels of government in line with the path dependent transformation of the Chinese centrally planned economy. This paper deduces how institutional change of IWT on the Yangtze fails to fulfil its purposes because of institutional legacies and conflicts of interests among the various levels of government and the persistent interwovenness of the state with private enterprises (via SOEs). In order to further stimulate IWT on the Yangtze more institutional changes are on the cards, in particular a need for more (foreign) private involvement and more independent SOEs, but these changes will not necessarily break out of the development path.     

民营企业治理转型困境与超越——基于路径依赖理论的分析视角

随着民营企业由初创期走向“二次创业”阶段,公司治理模式由封闭、集权的家族主导型向开放、制衡型的现代公司治理转变,就成为企业发展壮大的必然要求。然而,这种有利于效率改进的制度变迁却没有普遍发生,企业陷入公司治理模式的转型困境。本文运用路径依赖理论,从初始产权结构、传统文化和企业家行为倾向3个角度分析和揭示了民营企业治理转型困境的路径依赖效应,阐述了要超越和克服路径依赖,必须将注意力集中于发挥国家和企业家等制度变迁主体的积极作用,从而使公司治理模式脱离无效率的“锁定”状态,步入有效率的演进路径。     

The role of financial development in exchange rate regime choices

We make the first attempt in the literature to empirically investigate the role of financial development in the choice of exchange rate regimes. Using a binary choice model, we first show that financially less developed countries are more likely to adopt a fixed exchange rate. To further examine the impact of financial development on the conditional probability of exiting from an existing pegged system to a flexible one, we then employ hazard-based duration analysis. We find strong evidence that countries with higher levels of financial development are more likely to exit a pegged system, and, interestingly, financial development only matters to orderly exits but not disorderly exits. Our results are robust to controlling for endogeneity and sample selection.     

Spousal Effect and Timing of Retirement

The retirement decisions of individuals are strongly influenced by spousal retirement, financial incentives and institutional constraints such as access to early retirement benefits. In the European Union (EU), farm retirement is encouraged by early retirement provisions for farmers. As exit from farming determines the characteristics of structural change in agriculture, it is important to find out how spousal retirement and economic incentives affect the timing and type of retirement decisions among elderly farmers. This paper analyses the timing of early retirement decisions of farming couples using duration analysis and different exit channels. The empirical analysis is based on Finnish farm‐level panel data for the period 1993–1998. The results suggest that an expected pension particularly advances farm transfers. Farming couples are found to co‐ordinate their early retirement decisions. However, farmers are not found to co‐ordinate their early retirement according to spousal retirement under other pension schemes.     

Survival analysis of the Spanish hotel industry

The main objective of this study is an analysis of survival in the Spanish hotel industry. We used a sample of 1033 hotels opened from 1997 to 2009, examining financial and non-financial variables, including size; location; type of hotel; management, economic and financial structure and the year they opened, whether during an expansion or crisis period. The methodology included an econometric analysis of survival, using the non-parametric Kaplan–Meier estimator of constructed variables, in order to detect the particular influence of each variable. Semi-parametric regression was done with the Cox proportional hazards model, confirming which variables clearly influenced the survival of hotels and which signs existed for each analysed variables’ influence. The survival of hotels depends on their size, location, management and launch in a time of prosperity. However, survival rates were not significantly tied to particular types of hotels or configurations of their economic and financial structures.