Learning minimum variance discrete hedging directly from the market

Option hedging is a critical risk management problem in finance. In the Black–Scholes model, it has been recognized that computing a hedging position from the sensitivity of the calibrated model option value function is inadequate in minimizing variance of the option hedge risk, as it fails to capture the model parameter dependence on the underlying price (see e.g. Coleman et al., J. Risk, 2001, 5(6), 63–89; Hull and White, J. Bank. Finance, 2017, 82, 180–190). In this paper, we demonstrate that this issue can exist generally when determining hedging position from the sensitivity of the option function, either calibrated from a parametric model from current option prices or estimated nonparametricaly from historical option prices. Consequently, the sensitivity of the estimated model option function typically does not minimize variance of the hedge risk, even instantaneously. We propose a data-driven approach to directly learn a hedging function from the market data by minimizing variance of the local hedge risk. Using the S&P 500 index daily option data for more than a decade ending in August 2015, we show that the proposed method outperforms the parametric minimum variance hedging method proposed in Hull and White [J. Bank. Finance, 2017, 82, 180–190], as well as minimum variance hedging corrective techniques based on stochastic volatility or local volatility models. Furthermore, we show that the proposed approach achieves significant gain over the implied BS delta hedging for weekly and monthly hedging.     

Innovation in start-ups: Ideas filling the void or ideas devoid of resources and capabilities?

We investigate how access to different types of resources affects the success of entrepreneurial start-up firms at early stages of development in small isolated economies by studying 12 start-ups based in New Zealand. We find that successful commercialization of innovations depends on the availability of complementary assets, and that capability-based resources, especially dynamic capabilities, have a greater impact on competitive advantage of start-ups than other intangible and tangible assets. For the start-ups in our study, alliances with partners are particularly important, and so the ability to form alliances is a key capability. Successful start-ups leverage their available resources to attract alliance partners in order to access necessary complementary resources. The start-ups in our study clearly demonstrated the ability to attract partners locally but struggled to do so internationally, thereby limiting their growth potential.     

Dynamic capabilities and entrepreneurial management in large organizations: Toward a theory of the (entrepreneurial) firm

Mainstream economic theory has generally excluded consideration of the role of managers, which has, in turn, impaired its ability to explain resource allocation by, and heterogeneity among, firms. In the real world, managers are called on to fill entrepreneurial and leadership roles: sensing opportunities, developing and implementing viable business models, building capabilities, and guiding the organization through transformations. These entrepreneurial management tasks are part of the organization׳s capabilities, which also encompass embedded organizational processes that can be slow to change. An understanding of entrepreneurial management and organizational capabilities will contribute to more realistic economic models and a better understanding by policy makers of industrial dynamics and the requirements of innovation.     

Cross-border spillover effects of unconventional monetary policies on Swiss asset prices

Unconventional monetary policies (UMPs) announced by the Federal Reserve, the European Central Bank, the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan exert important spillover effects on asset prices in Switzerland. Using a broad UMP event set and a long-term bond-futures based measure of market anticipation, we show that surprisingly expansionary UMPs lower Swiss government and corporate bond yields, induce the Swiss franc to appreciate, and dampen Swiss equity prices. Four extensions provide further insights. First, the estimated effects are strongest for announcements by the ECB. Second, the impact on government bonds is largest for bonds with residual maturities of 7–10 years. Third, the impact of foreign UMP shocks on exchange rates and Swiss bond yields is less pronounced after the introduction of the minimum rate of 1.20 Swiss franc per Euro by the Swiss National Bank on September 6, 2011, indicating that domestic monetary policy action partially affects the impact of external monetary shocks on domestic financial markets. Fourth, the sign of spillover effects differs for positive and negative UMP surprises, but their strength does not.     

Dynamic capability in a small global factory

In order to balance their local and global operations optimally, SMEs are moving toward a ‘global factory’ type of organizational form, meaning a differentiated network of activities held together through the control of key assets and flows of knowledge, and coordinated by a focal firm. Managing such a network requires a specific dynamic capability comprising, according to our study, cognitive, managerial, and organizational capabilities. Cognitive capabilities – cultural awareness, entrepreneurial orientation, and a global mindset – are the basis for a global factory because they are the source for opportunity recognition and exploitation, and are therefore crucial. The focal firm's organizational flexibility and absorptive capacity, as well as managerial capabilities in the areas of interface competence and analytical capability, are needed in the steering of a small global factory, the success of which depends on the nurturing of these assets.     

Good signals gone bad: Dynamic signalling with switched effort levels

This paper examines signalling when the sender exerts effort and receives benefits over time. Receivers only observe a noisy public signal about the effort, which has no intrinsic value.The modelling of signalling in a dynamic context gives rise to novel equilibrium outcomes. In some equilibria, a sender with a higher cost of effort exerts strictly more effort than his low-cost counterpart. The low-cost type can compensate later for initial low effort, but this is not worthwhile for a high-cost type. The interpretation of a given signal switches endogenously over time, depending on which type the receivers expect to send it.     

Transformation and Rebirth of Chinese Brands: A Case From the Hotel Industry

ABSTRACT

Chinese domestic brands have developed rapidly in recent years, and yet few of them have entered global competition as product or service brands brands with exceptions such as Huawei. In addition, the evolution of Chinese brands has hardly been understood or introduced properly by international business educators. In this article, we identify the development patterns of Chinese domestic brands by using a local hotel brand as an example. Particularly, we examine and discuss how a Chinese brand can be established with specific positioning, brand image, and product offering, as well as how the brand can grow by vertical and horizontal extensions based on balancing market opportunities and the brand’s own capabilities. Moreover, we expect this research to facilitate the understanding of Chinese brands among international business education.     

A new look at variation in employment growth in Canada: The role of industry,provincial, national and external factors

We examine fluctuations in employment growth using Canadian data from 1976 to 2010. We consider a wide range of models and examine the sensitivity of our findings to modelling assumptions. The results from our most preferred model, which we selected using the Bayesian Information Criteria, indicate that most of the variance in employment growth that is not due to the idiosyncratic error comes from domestic sources, with most of this coming from industry and provincial factors. Overall, we find that external and national factors play a much smaller role in employment fluctuations than in earlier research. We provide some possible explanations for these differences and discuss the implications of our findings for public policy and theory.     

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in emerging economies

Forecasting macroeconomic variables in rapidly changing emerging economies presents a number of challenges. In addition to structural changes, the time-series data are usually available only for a short number of periods, and predictors are available in different lengths and frequencies. Dynamic model averaging (DMA), by allowing the forecasting model to change dynamically over time, permits the use of predictors with different lengths and frequencies for the purpose of forecasting in a rapidly changing economy. This study uses DMA to forecast inflation and growth in Vietnam, Thailand, Philippines, Sri Lanka and Ghana. We compare its forecasting performance with a wide range of other time-series methods. We find that the size and composition of the optimal predictor set changed, indicating changes in the economic relationships over time. We also find that DMA frequently produces more accurate forecasts than other forecasting methods for both inflation and economic growth in the countries studied.     

Do constraints created by economic growth targets benefit sustainable development? Evidence from China

An economic growth target is a declaration by policy authorities of commitment to that target and the corresponding allocation of resources. The constraints created by economic growth target are an important economic management method in China, which has helped China's economy to achieve remarkable achievements. However, it has also brought about serious environmental problems, threatening China's sustainable development. Using the data about economic growth targets in the work reports of 30 Chinese provincial governments from 2006 to 2017, this paper constructs several spatial measurement methods, such as the spatial Durbin model, to examine the constraints created by economic growth target's impacts on air pollution. The main conclusions are as follows. First, a significant “U-shaped” relationship exists between the constraints created by economic growth targets and air pollution. Second, the spatial Durbin model analysis revealed that PM_2.5 across China's provinces display significant positive spatial spillover effects and spatial agglomeration characteristics. Third, the direct, indirect, and total effects of constraints created by economic growth targets on air pollution are all statistically significant and depict a “U shape.” Finally, the constraints created by economic growth targets have an apparent threshold effect on air pollution, and the inhibiting effects increase with human capital and industrial restructuring. However, with the increase in foreign direct investments, constraints created by economic growth targets may increase air pollution. The conclusions of this paper are of great significance for improving the management of local government economic growth targets and sustainable development.