Political economy of eastern enlargement of the European Union: Budgetary costs and reforms in voting rules

Eastern European countries are likely to be major recipients of European Union (EU) funds after membership, which has created serious concern among incumbent members. The EU has devised reforms of budgetary rules to limit the funds that will flow to the East. Using a political economy model and drawing on the experience of previous enlargements, this paper argues that such pre-accession reforms will be ineffective because they can be reversed by a coalition of Eastern European countries after membership. The paper then estimates budgetary costs of eastern enlargement. A better way to resolve budgetary concerns is to reform voting rules rather than budgetary rules, before eastern enlargement.     

俄欧关系的现状和展望

俄罗斯和欧盟关系的主要特点是双方互动的非对称性、过分的相互依赖性和利益交织面的扩大。双方虽然都在努办寻找建立长期稳定关系的契合点，但由于价值观分歧严重，在很多领域难以达成互信，因此，双方关系的发展常常一波三折。与此同时，互相依赖、利益交织的事实也使双方在矛盾中不会走向对抗而保持克制。全球金融海啸的爆发、美国对外政策的调整为排除俄欧关系发展的主要障碍提供了机遇。务实合作、实现双方利益的最大化将依然是主导未来欧俄关系发展的主线。     

Expansion of EU's Free Trade Agreements into Asian Countries and Its Impact on the Chinese Economy

Abstract

This study investigates the macroeconomic impact of EU's free trade agreements with Asian countries and the US on the Chinese economy. In addition we examine the impacts on the Chinese industry output based on the framework of production network and production fragmentation. The expansion of the EU's economic reach toward ASEAN and Japan through free trade agreement will generate a positive macroeconomic effect on negotiation participants while it generates a negative effect on the Chinese economy: Some portions of existing trade and foreign direct investment will be shifted to partner countries from non-partner countries. However, according to a sectorial analysis, EU's free trade agreements with three countries result in a positive impact on China's electronics and machinery industry, because China's industry is linked to the production fragmentation and foreign affiliates play a crucial role.     

地区间主义的两种形式——基于欧盟与中国对非地区间合作经验的分析

地区间主义研究的核心问题是地区间制度设计在促进合作上的适用性。制度化与论坛化是当前地区间合作中的两种主要形式,这两种制度选择的区别体现在结构平衡、施动方向、互动结果以及由此所决定的制度适用性上。作者提出:在制度化的地区间合作中,强势的一方因为缺乏足够的回应或制衡,将导致其倡议和政策制定主要从自身角度出发,这在很大程度上削弱了政策和举措的适用性。而在论坛化的地区间合作中,平衡和双向的互动以及合作的意愿能够增加最后的政策和举措的适用性。欧盟推动的对非制度化地区间合作与中非合作论坛推动的论坛化地区间合作是当今地区间主义比较有代表性的案例。通过对欧盟与中国的对非地区间合作的比较研究发现,适用性的制度设计应该建立在地区间结构平衡、双向互动和强烈的政治意愿基础之上。     

德国碳排放权交易管理架构与职能*

德国是欧盟碳交易体系中最为重要的成员国，德国对欧盟碳交易体系的实践，对我国碳交易体系的建设和管理具有借鉴意义。本文综述德国对碳交易体系的管理与执行组织架构，以及欧盟碳交易体系在德国前两个阶段的执行情况，为我国碳交易体系的建立提供参考。     

碳交易“三可”机制设计及应用

MRV（Monitoring, Reporting, Verification）机制是碳排放权交易体系的基石。欧盟为解决碳交易面临的问题重新审视和出台了最新的MRV机制，这对我国未来MRV机制的设计具有借鉴作用。本文研究分析了符合国际惯例的MRV机制中需关注的几个技术问题，同时也介绍了深圳与国际接轨的一些做法。结合欧盟的新法规给出了中国碳交易体系中MRV机制建立应考虑的重要关注点。     

EU Enlargement,Institutional Governance and Innovation Environment in the Baltic Countries

Abstract

This paper presents institutional framework to implement innovative and co-operative procedures of industrial reorganization and economic growth in the Baltic countries. By using the recent features of organization mode theories and institutional economics, we apply how institutional development helps the Baltic firms to survive in the integration of EU25 markets. We present this framework as a dynamic process in three stages. The first stage identifies the main foundations from the transition period: macroeconomic stabilization, privatization, and financial governance. The second stage considers how to build up the institutional structure of the governance in production. The third stage points out those topics that enhance innovation environment and benchmarks the Baltic countries to EU innovation capacity. These progressive stages in financial, production, and innovation systems of governance can be overlapped or happen in sequential order but the final purpose of these improvements is to enhance the managerial incentives for higher innovative activity in the EU-Baltic industrial integration. It is found that the Baltic innovation input capacity is competitive compared with the EU25 average but a gap in innovation output is still essential.     

Assessing economic convergence in the EU: is there a perspective for the ‘cohesion countries’?

This article analyses the stochastic income convergence within the EU-15. The empirical analysis uses per capita GDP, in PPP and in constant prices of 2005 for the period 1950 to 2010. Apart from the traditional DF type tests we also account for possible structural changes. In this direction, we employ the Zivot-Andrews (1992) and the Lee-Strazicich (1999, 2003) testing procedures, for one and two breaks, endogenously determined. Furthermore, we apply the Carlino and Mills (1993) methodology proposed for the detection of β-convergence. The overall evidence supports the existence of two discrete clubs, the first by the ‘cohesion countries’ (Portugal, Ireland, Greece and Spain) and the second by the remaining members. In particular, there is a clear evidence of convergence within each club, whereas between clubs there is a luck of catching-up effects. Furthermore, investigation of correlation between relative per capita GDP of each country and several factors that are often identified as growth stimulants, namely Total Factor Productivity, FDI, investment and openness confirm, with the exception of Greece, a strong association between these factors and the convergence process. However, progress in the convergence has not been uniform across countries and over time, reflecting the specific interactions between domestic and international factors and their impact on the convergence process of individual countries.     

欧盟技术性贸易新壁垒——REACH法规探析及对策研究

欧盟于2006年底通过了堪称史上最为庞大、复杂苛刻的新化学品管理法——Reach法规。其实施必将对世界化工以及相关产业带来重大影响，同时作为一项新的技术性贸易壁垒也将对中欧化工品贸易以及我国化工产业造成重大影响。文章对REACH法规及其将带来的影响进行详尽解析，并从政府和市场层面，为我国相关企业提供应对的措施建议。     

Measuring the welfare costs of EU accessionThe case of VAT reform in Bulgaria

We analyze possible reforms to the Bulgarian VAT system, evaluating revenue-neutral reallocations of goods to tax bands within the existing 2-rate structure. We investigate the sensitivity of the results to behavioural response and imperfect tax recovery. We find only a weak case for the use of non-uniform VAT rate structures for redistributional purposes. Selective VAT exemptions can produce approximate welfare gains equivalent to a general price fall of much less than 1 per cent for plausible specifications of social welfare.
JEL classification: D31, J31, P24.