Adaptive model-based seasonal adjustment of time series: An Empirical Comparison with XII-ARIMA and SIGEX

Several model-based approaches have been proposed in recent years for adjusting and decomposing time series data. Using real world data, this paper presents results of a large scale empirical comparison of the XII-ARIMA and SIGEX procedures to DESAEP, a new adaptive model-based method that combines stochastic and deterministic effects. The comparison reveals no substantial inconsistencies in seasonally adjusted values produced by the 3 methods. As for the magnitude in revisions in both concurrent and forecasted seasonally adjusted values, an overall reduction by a factor of 2 to 3 was obtained with DESAEP depending on the level of variability in the data.     

对完善我国商业秘密法律保护的构想

目前,我国商业秘密法律保护的地位不够明确,保护商业秘密的法律规定过于分散,操作性不强;在调整范围上,相关法律、法规存在着一定的局限性。完善我国商业秘密的法律保护,应借鉴国外在民法典中、在侵权行为法中、在反不正当竞争法中的商业秘密保护以及商业秘密的专门立法方面的立法例,制订专门商业秘密保护法;进一步加强我国工商行政管理机关对商业秘密的保护;加大我国法院和仲裁机构对商业秘密侵权的救济。企业必须树立和加强商业秘密这种无形财产权的权利意识,健全商业秘密保护机制,明确保密内容,确立完善的防范措施。     

Relational selling strategy and key account managers' relational behaviors: An exploratory study

Many companies see key account management as a potentially successful way to implement a relational strategy. Nevertheless, the literature suggests that strategy implementation at the sales force level is difficult to achieve, mainly because salespeople may not understand - nor accept - what they are requested to do. Despite their relevance, behaviors of key account managers have poorly been investigated. This article defines and tests a model of relational selling behaviors from the part of key account managers. Results show that the perception of the adoption of a relational selling strategy is associated with some specific key account managers' behaviors (customer-oriented selling, adaptive selling and team selling), but not with others (organizational citizenship behaviors). These findings suggest that potential discrepancies can exist between a relational selling strategy and its implementation at the key account manager level. Based on these results, theoretical and managerial implications are discussed.     

试析比较命题及其推理

探讨了比较命题的表达形式和种类，比较命命与比较和比喻的区别及比较命题的推理，指出一切比较命题，对比和比喻都是比，但并非一切比都是比较命题或比喻，只有比较命题才构成比较命题的推理的观点，旨在探究一种新的思想形式，加深人们对客观事物正确反映。     

论完善合同法中的预期违约制度

《中华人民共和国合同法》的颁布是中国法制建设进程中一件大事，它结束了“三足鼎立”的合同立法状况，使具有中国特色的合同法律制度得以完善。新合同法借鉴英关法系国家的合同制度，规定了预期违约制度。我国《合同法》设置的预期违约制度，为预期的受害方提供了救济基础。在实际中，明确界定、准确把握预期违约的适用条件是充分发挥这一制度功能的前提。     

A forecasting comparison of some var techniques

Higher dimensional multivariate time series models suffer from the problem of over-parametrisation which impairs their forecasting performance. Starting from such unrestricted vector autoregressive models the paper discusses two ways to cope with this difficulty. The first approach reduces the number of free parameters by applying a subset modelling strategy. The second approach takes a Bayesian point of view by formulating ‘priors’ which are then combined with sample information, but leaving the original specification unaltered. Using Austrian quarterly macroeconomic time series a comparative study is undertaken by running alternative forecasting exercises. Both methods improve out-of-sample forecasting performance substantially at the cost of some bias in ex-post simulations. Comparing the ex-ante predictions of the two approaches, the former does better at short horizons whereas the latter gains as the forecast horizon lengthens.     

经济一体化与香港股市的国际联动实证研究

本文从汇率制度、利率水平、国际贸易、投资群体等方面,分析香港股票市场所处的宏观管理运行环境,考察香港和美国的密切经济关系,研究全球一体化不断加深的情形下香港、日本和美国股市的动态关系。研究结果表明,三大市场的动态关系依然存在;但恒指跟上证指并不存在协整关系。     

贸易与收入分配关系的理论和实证研究回顾

20世纪90年代末,随着全球化的急剧推进,各国非熟练劳动力的收入日益恶化且收入差距也迅速扩大,使得贸易对收入分配的影响成为各国学者研究的热点。无论是传统的国际贸易理论,还是当代的新国际贸易理论对贸易是否会影响国内收入分配这一问题上一直充满争议。本文对贸易与收入分配关系的理论和实证研究进行简单的回顾和归纳,并在分析现有研究成果的基础上指出今后这一问题的研究动向。     

Limits to forecasting in personalized medicine: An overview

Biomedical research is generating massive amounts of information about potential prognostic factors for health and disease. However, few prognostic factors or systems are robustly validated, and still fewer have made a convincing difference in health outcomes or in prolonging life expectancy. For most diseases and outcomes, a considerable component of the prognostic variance remains unknown, and may remain so for the foreseeable future. I discuss here some of the main problems in medical forecasting that pose obstacles to personalized medicine. Their recognition may help identify solutions to improve personalized prognosis, or at least understand and cope with the component of the future that we cannot predict. Much prognostic research is stuck at generating “publishable units”, without any interest in conclusively proving their worth, let alone moving them into real life applications. Information is reported selectively and reporting is deficient. The replication record of prognostic claims is poor. Even among replicated prognostic effects, few are convincingly shown to add much information besides what is already known through more simple, traditional measurements. There are few efforts to systematize prognostic knowledge. Most prognostic effects are subtle when traced to the molecular level, where most current research operates. Many researchers, clinicians, and the public are not appropriately educated to interpret prognostic information. We still have not even agreed on what the important health outcomes are that we want to predict and intervene for, and some subjectivity may be unavoidable. Finally, without concomitant effective, affordable, and non-harmful interventions, prognosis alone is of questionable value, and wrong prognosis or a wrong interpretation thereof can be harmful. The identification of these problems also suggests a roadmap on what could be done to amend them. Solutions include a systematic approach to the design, conduct, reporting, replication, and clinical translation of prognostic research; as well as the education of researchers, clinicians, and the general public. Finally, we need to recognize that perfect individualized health forecasting is not a realistic target in the foreseeable future, and we have to live with considerable residual uncertainty.     

论仲裁条款对提单受让人的法律效力——以仲裁协议效力扩张理论为视角

仲裁条款对提单受让人的法律效力问题一直备受争议,长期以来都未有定论。提单转让的单方性,阻碍了提单仲裁条款根据传统的当事人意思自治原则取得法律效力。随着现代仲裁法学的不断发展,新的仲裁协议效力扩张理论为该问题的解决,提供了新的法理基础。根据该理论,提单受让人同意仲裁的,仲裁条款对其产生法律效力;提单受让人不同意仲裁的,仲裁条款对其不产生法律效力;而承运人却始终受到仲裁条款的约束,无权拒绝仲裁。