The empirics of trade and growth: where are the policy recommendations?

Existing literature repeatedly documented a strong correlation between trade and growth. It has also shown a causal effect of imports (though not necessarily exports) on growth in simultaneous equation models but to a lesser extent in Granger-causality tests. Export and import taxes have sometimes been found to negatively affect growth. Drawing policy conclusions from these general findings for a particular country is difficult not only because of the contradictory results but also because of potential second best world effects and the implied endogeneity of trade policy. Policy recommendations for a specific country require a careful analysis of market and institutional arrangements and can not be based on the existing cross-country literature.This project started while both authors were working at the World Bank. Views expressed in this paper do not necessarily represent the views of the World Bank or the institutions they are currently affiliated with. We would like to thank Lucas Bretschger, Shanta Deverajan, Marion Jansen, Marcelo Olarreaga, Howard Pack, Karen Pittel and Paul Welfens for helpful discussions and comments. We are especially indebted to Simon Evenett for very detailed and constructive comments.     

The tick/volatility ratio as a determinant of the compass rose: empirical evidence from decimalisation on the NYSE

Recent research suggests that volatility has an important role to play in the appearance of the compass rose pattern. The introduction of decimal prices on the New York Stock Exchange (NYSE) provides an ideal opportunity to test this hypothesis using actual market data. The empirical evidence presented in this paper suggests that the 85 per cent reduction in the tick/volatility ratio resulting from the decimalisation of prices was not sufficient to eliminate the compass rose pattern.     

森岛通夫“马尔科夫解法”并未解决马克思转形命题

20世纪70年代,森岛通夫运用非负矩阵性质和马尔科夫过程构建动态模型,给出了马克思两个恒等关系在较宽松条件下成立的证明,在学术界引起较大反响。本文分析发现,森岛通夫转形问题的“马尔科夫解法”,是将“加权”的两个基本相等关系作为马克思的两个基本相等关系来论证,而且其论证为循环论证。并发现,森岛通夫的马尔科夫迭代不存在均衡解。因此,森岛通夫的马尔科夫解法并没有真正解决转形问题。     

非线性面板模型参数估计量的偏误修正方法研究

非线性面板模型在经济学研究中得到了广泛应用,相关的分析方法却面临着很大的挑战,尤其是对一些微观数据模型来说,伴随参数问题的存在使得非线性面板模型在固定效应设定下结构参数的极大似然估计量存在着严重的偏误。本文对这类模型参数估计量的偏误问题进行了详细的阐述,回顾了近些年来出现的各种偏误修正方法,其中包括解析修正法、正交性修正法、先验信息修正法以及自助修正法等,并且对不同方法之间的联系进行了简单说明,还对已取得的一些重要研究成果进行了总结。最后强调了不同的偏误修正方法在处理实际问题时存在的差异性,并对该问题最新的发展方向加以概括。     

Business conditions, shared resources and integrative practices in the supply chain

Integration is one of the important concepts in supply chain management. Both in theoretical and empirical contributions, it is shown that integrative practices improve supply chain performance. Our knowledge with respect to which integrative practices are appropriate under different circumstances is limited. This paper develops propositions regarding the influence of business conditions and the type of resources on integrative practices in links between buyers and suppliers. We will study nine business units and the relationship with their key buyers. For each unit, we will investigate the business conditions, the employment of resources for key buyers and the type and level of integrative practices. Higher complexity in business conditions requires higher levels of integration (specifically in the areas of planning and organisation), which are stimulated by buyer-focused resources and restricted by shared resources. In case of lower complexity, we find lower levels of integrative practices. Here, the influence of shared resources on integration is limited.     

中国农产品贸易格局的实证分析

随着世界经济全球化和区域一体化的发展，各国家（地区）间的经贸往来越来越密切，农产品贸易作为世界经济的重要组成部分，国际市场的变化深刻影响着各国（地区）农业及农产品对外贸易的发展。本文旨在通过分析我国农产品贸易格局的分布和变化特征，以及农产品贸易格局的主要影响因素，认识和掌握我国农产品对外贸易的发展特点和发展优势。论文主要采用实证研究的方法，在数据分析和国际比较的基础上，对我国农产品贸易格局的特征和影响因素进行了分析，并探讨我国农产品贸易格局改进的潜力和空间。     

广西工业创新发展的实证研究

创新是促进经济社会发展的动力,广西工业经过长期的发展,工业创新能力不断提高,企业研发机构已经具备发展的基础,创新人才资源出现快速集聚的趋势,以企业为主体的技术创新体系初步形成,政策和创新环境进一步改善。但是也存在企业创新投资能力不足、自主知识产权转化程度低、工业竞争力不强、创新资源配置效率不高等问题,主要原因是创新人才尤其是高端R&D人才匮乏、企业科技创新经费投入不足、工业竞争力不强、创新资源配置效率不高、技术中介服务市场化程度低等,为了加快工业创新发展,需要采取夯实创新基础、突破发展重点、集中力量攻关、实施创新工程、深化合作交流、优化创新布局等对策建议。     

论金融衍生产品的风险控制——金融衍生产品市场风险识别与监管法律机制的完善

金融衍生产品是以货币、债券、股票等传统金融产品为基础,以杠杆性信用交易为特征的新型金融产品,其保值性、收益性、全球性等特点满足了21世纪人们对金融投资高回报、高收益的追求。以中国金融衍生产品市场为视角,结合一些国际案例的教训和其他国家、地区的经验,对金融衍生产品市场的风险控制进行了探讨,对金融衍生产品市场法律风险识别与监管法律制度的完善提出一些切实可行的建议。     

International graduate students' perceptions and interest in international careers

This research developed and tested a comprehensive model of the antecedents of international graduate students' interest in an international career. Based largely on Social Cognitive Career Theory (SCCT), the model included elements that pertain to perceptions of external constraints (perceptions of the labor market, family pressure to return), international student experience (adjustment in the foreign country during graduate studies, exposure and immersion to the international context) and individual factors (self-efficacy with respect to working abroad and outcome expectancy). Participants were 139 international graduate students in the UK. Individual factors and perceived constraints were directly related to interest in an international career. The factors that comprised current international student experience were indirectly related to interest via their relationship with self-efficacy, while adjustment moderated the relationship between self-efficacy and interest. Although the hypothesized moderating role of family pressure to return did not materialize, the findings suggest that perceptions of constraints play a more substantial role in the formation of interest than has been assumed by SCCT theory thus far. The findings are discussed with respect to their implications for the literature and for the policies of host country stakeholders.     

WTO规则课程双语教学的思考

结合二本院校《WTO规则》双语教学实践经历,深入分析WTO规则双语教学的必要性、合理性、和可行性,并论及WTO规则双语教学的模式以及师资要求,最后给出相应的教学启示